New flu pandemic 'would kill 62 million' - Times Online

[News]

http://houseofpolitics.com/forum/
HealthNews-Stats (press release) (http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=T&ct=us/1i-0&fd=R&url=http://www.healthnews-stat.com/%3Fid%3D290%26keys%3DPandemic-health-flu-victims-kill-mortality&cid=1112173761&ei=M4-LReKmKY_4owKs15WLDA)New flu pandemic 'would kill 62 million' (http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=T&ct=us/1-0&fd=R&url=http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2514508,00.html&cid=1112173761&ei=M4-LReKmKY_4owKs15WLDA)
Times Online - 7 hours ago
Pandemic flu would kill 62 million people around the world, most of them in poorer countries, a new estimate suggests. The figures assume that a new pandemic would follow the same pattern as the 1918 Spanish flu, which killed at least 20 million people ...
Experts Predict Avian Flu Pandemic Could Kill 62 Million People (http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=T&ct=us/1-1&fd=R&url=http://www.voanews.com/english/2006-12-21-voa58.cfm&cid=1112173761&ei=M4-LReKmKY_4owKs15WLDA) Voice of America
Global flu pandemic would probably kill 62m (http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=T&ct=us/1-2&fd=R&url=http://www.guardian.co.uk/medicine/story/0,,1977458,00.html&cid=1112173761&ei=M4-LReKmKY_4owKs15WLDA) Guardian Unlimited
MSNBC (http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=T&ct=us/1-3&fd=R&url=http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16313464/&cid=1112173761&ei=M4-LReKmKY_4owKs15WLDA) - Independent Online (http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=T&ct=us/1-4&fd=R&url=http://www.iol.co.za/index.php%3Fset_id%3D14%26click_id%3D117%26art_id% 3Dqw1166719142274S435&cid=1112173761&ei=M4-LReKmKY_4owKs15WLDA) - CBC News (http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=T&ct=us/1-5&fd=R&url=http://www.cbc.ca/cp/health/061221/x122113A.html&cid=1112173761&ei=M4-LReKmKY_4owKs15WLDA) - Scientific American (http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=T&ct=us/1-6&fd=R&url=http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm%3FchanID%3Dsa003%26articleID%3DA748803 7-E7F2-99DF-3150463234DAC1F0&cid=1112173761&ei=M4-LReKmKY_4owKs15WLDA)
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[davideyoung]

Try 81 million
It is a killer
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,20966224-663,00.html
Don't take it lightly if you have flu syptoms

[brian_121]

My friend according to FDA the pandemic occurs when a new influenza virus, which people have no immunity to, emerges and starts spreading as easily as normal influenza. The Department of Health is working to support NHS preparedness and to reduce the impact of pandemic flu on the USA population. So there is no worry until we saw any pres release from them.:rolleyes:

[Dave]

Seems to be more scaremongering to me. The articles are all assuming that the avian flu will be just as hard to treat and contain as the 1918 flu. This may come as a suprise to many of these doctors, but medicine has come a long way in the past 90 years. Scientists have been working on a way to stop this new strain of flu and many believe that they can alter its genetic structure to make it more treatable. With the leaps that medicine has made, I can't see much of a way for a virus to spread the same way it did in 1918. Let's not forget that the avian flu hasn't even crossed into humans yet, and may never cross into humans for that matter.

[HighVoltage123]

Can you imagine how expensive will be the vaccine... it will be something like natural selection only the strongest (and the richest) will survive... :eek:

[palerider]

Can you imagine how expensive will be the vaccine... it will be something like natural selection only the strongest (and the richest) will survive... :eek:

How much do you pay for a flu shot now? Exactly why do you believe that the vaccine for avian flu (should it ever be needed) would be more expensive to produce than any other flu vaccine?

[9sublime]

If 63 million are likely to die I'm sure the flu shot would be in high demand and in short supply, so the price would be high. And it would take a while for it to be made after the outbreak has begun, and the world economy would be greatly effected, with stock market crashes etc. more than likely.

[Rokerijdude11]

If 63 million are likely to die I'm sure the flu shot would be in high demand and in short supply, so the price would be high. And it would take a while for it to be made after the outbreak has begun, and the world economy would be greatly effected, with stock market crashes etc. more than likely.

I tend to agree with this very well summarized assesment of how it would actually occur. I think 9sublime has hit this dead on.

[palerider]

If 63 million are likely to die I'm sure the flu shot would be in high demand and in short supply, so the price would be high. And it would take a while for it to be made after the outbreak has begun, and the world economy would be greatly effected, with stock market crashes etc. more than likely.


Look back through history and name for me some examples of the cost of a vaccine going through the roof. If history is any indicator, the more likely senario is that the vaccine will be given away.

It seems that everyone is looking to the 1918 flu pandemic as a model for the next pandemic but there have been two pandemics since. The asian flu pandemic of 1957 killed about a million people and the hong kong flu pandemic of 1968 killed about 800,000. In all likelyhood, the next pandemic will kill considerably fewer. It was improvements in medicine between 1918 and 1957 that kept that pandemic from killing as many, not that the asian flu was any less virulent than the 1918 N1H strain. The same is true for the hong kong flu of 1968. It was a very virulent strain but medicine had improved and with it, prevention practices. We have come a very long way since 1968 and there is no reason to suspect that the next pandemic will even approach the fatality levels of the 1968 pandemic.

The media has created the fear of tens of millions dying in order to boost sales.

[palerider]

I tend to agree with this very well summarized assesment of how it would actually occur. I think 9sublime has hit this dead on.


Before you start predicting how it "will" occur, it is helpful to examine how it has "already" occured. In times of medical emergency, nations tend to give away vaccines, not charge outrageous prices for them. There are laws in place to prevent price gouging in emergencies. You can go to jail for trying to make an extra $5 on a sheet of plywood before a hurricaine, try selling a flu vaccine for more than its normal price.

[Rokerijdude11]

First of all Sparky.....


I didnt Predict How it was going to occur? wtf dont you read?
I agreed with someone elses assesment of how it may occur......are you able to tell the difference pal? Im really getting tired of your tactics, and soon have decided will begin using them on you...........


Nations tend to give away vaccines.........wtf are you drinking ?in the capatilistic, Monetary driven ,United States economy, where Oil, and Drugs, run the show...... there isnt going to be any Friggin free vaccines!!!!! wake the f up .......

How affordable are those Flu Vaccines? which BTW in My opinion, have set you all up for the fall, by planting the virus within you.we still have the spanish flu Virus under glass you know.

sure you can go to jail for charging an extra five bucks at hurricane landfall ...are you this un-connected? I have property in florida...and was in New Orleans 4 days after landfall you live in a glass Bubble

people can and do charge whatever they want .....in a time of emergency the Officials tasked with enforcing this type of behavior are far too busy ,to be checking to see how much your charging . what a glass world you live in friend

[9sublime]

Look back through history and name for me some examples of the cost of a vaccine going through the roof. If history is any indicator, the more likely senario is that the vaccine will be given away.

It seems that everyone is looking to the 1918 flu pandemic as a model for the next pandemic but there have been two pandemics since. The asian flu pandemic of 1957 killed about a million people and the hong kong flu pandemic of 1968 killed about 800,000. In all likelyhood, the next pandemic will kill considerably fewer. It was improvements in medicine between 1918 and 1957 that kept that pandemic from killing as many, not that the asian flu was any less virulent than the 1918 N1H strain. The same is true for the hong kong flu of 1968. It was a very virulent strain but medicine had improved and with it, prevention practices. We have come a very long way since 1968 and there is no reason to suspect that the next pandemic will even approach the fatality levels of the 1968 pandemic.

The media has created the fear of tens of millions dying in order to boost sales.

I agree with you that the media has created mass hysteria over this. But have you read Malthus's essay on population? Population has to be controlled, otherwise the world becomes overpopulated, disease keeps it in check. It happens in the animal kingdom mainly with predators numbers vs preys numbers but also with disease if nothing is hunting a species. Its just that we are advanced enough since the industrial revolution etc. to be able to combat diseases like cholera etc. which occur when an area is too populated.


I'm no expert on science, population or the economy, but its pretty obvious that we can't keep reproducing at this rate. So assuming the pandemic does happen there will be stock market crashes etc., maybe not in richer countries at first, or so severley, but it will happen. And then inflation will hit the roof, and with 6 billion people in the world, a vaccine that is being created DURING the pandemic, (because a cure can only be made when the disease is in existence) is going to cost a lot. It will be given away if it can in the USA, and the richest MEDC's, but not in south america, africa, the middle east etc. Only the rich will get it at first.

And you say look back in history, vaccines prices never hit the roof. Your misinformed on the subject:

Penicillin fell from being literally priceless to eventually $0.55 after 10 years of it being mass produced, because the war drove the price through the roof.

AND anti viral drugs havn't been around long enough for you to spout drivel about 'look back through history'. Sure, you could find one or two examples of drugs staying cheap,being given out i.e. smallpox vaccination, but that was a while after it was created and sold.

[vyo476]

I agree with you that the media has created mass hysteria over this. But have you read Malthus's essay on population? Population has to be controlled, otherwise the world becomes overpopulated, disease keeps it in check. It happens in the animal kingdom mainly with predators numbers vs preys numbers but also with disease if nothing is hunting a species. Its just that we are advanced enough since the industrial revolution etc. to be able to combat diseases like cholera etc. which occur when an area is too populated.


I'm no expert on science, population or the economy, but its pretty obvious that we can't keep reproducing at this rate. So assuming the pandemic does happen there will be stock market crashes etc., maybe not in richer countries at first, or so severley, but it will happen. And then inflation will hit the roof, and with 6 billion people in the world, a vaccine that is being created DURING the pandemic, (because a cure can only be made when the disease is in existence) is going to cost a lot. It will be given away if it can in the USA, and the richest MEDC's, but not in south america, africa, the middle east etc. Only the rich will get it at first.

And you say look back in history, vaccines prices never hit the roof. Your misinformed on the subject:

Penicillin fell from being literally priceless to eventually $0.55 after 10 years of it being mass produced, because the war drove the price through the roof.

AND anti viral drugs havn't been around long enough for you to spout drivel about 'look back through history'. Sure, you could find one or two examples of drugs staying cheap,being given out i.e. smallpox vaccination, but that was a while after it was created and sold.

Malthus was more of a doomsday prophet than a scholar. So far science has managed to keep up with our burgeoning population. Many live in squalor but that's because of money, not a lack of supply. I'm starting to sound more like the science fiction nerd I am but I believe that colonization of other worlds (Mars being a great candidate for starters) will prove a solution to Malthus' "There won't be any room or any food!"

And why will stock markets be crashing? And just for the sake of ****s and giggles, why won't they be happening in "the richest countries" at first? Virulent diseases certainly cause economic instability but don't essentially lead to economic crashes.

[9sublime]

Yeah but if this pandemic is all its being made out to be by even the more levelheaded part of the media, I'm pretty sure the world would go pretty haywire for a while...

[vyo476]

Yeah but if this pandemic is all its being made out to be by even the more levelheaded part of the media, I'm pretty sure the world would go pretty haywire for a while...

Funny you should say "haywire." Brings to mind Y2K, doesn't it?

[Rokerijdude11]

THE NWO would release this doomsday virus in order to solve the problem of no room and no food by ridding the world of what they call us

"Useless Eaters"

[palerider]

First of all Sparky.....


I didnt Predict How it was going to occur? wtf dont you read?
I agreed with someone elses assesment of how it may occur......are you able to tell the difference pal? Im really getting tired of your tactics, and soon have decided will begin using them on you...........

So you aggree with him, but that is not the position that you hold? Interesting.


Nations tend to give away vaccines.........wtf are you drinking ?in the capatilistic, Monetary driven ,United States economy, where Oil, and Drugs, run the show...... there isnt going to be any Friggin free vaccines!!!!! wake the f up .......

If you are as old as you say that you are, tell me. How much did your parents pay for the polio vaccine? How about smallpox? How much do you think citizens in the 3rd world pay for various vaccines? How much do you believe their governments pay for them?

How affordable are those Flu Vaccines? which BTW in My opinion, have set you all up for the fall, by planting the virus within you.we still have the spanish flu Virus under glass you know.

How do you believe the flu shot that I get every year would affect my response to the N1H1 spanish flu virus? How do you believe that the flu shot that I get every year affects my response to any flu virus that is not the exact strain that the shot I get is manufactured against? You conspiracy theorists are a real hoot.

people can and do charge whatever they want .....in a time of emergency the Officials tasked with enforcing this type of behavior are far too busy ,to be checking to see how much your charging . what a glass world you live in friend

There is a vast difference between joe bob selling plywood off the back of his truck for an obscene profit and a hospital doing the same when people will die if they can't afford the price. Refusing to give aid that results in the death of another constitutes manslaughter, especially if you are a hospital.

[9sublime]

There is a vast difference between joe bob selling plywood off the back of his truck for an obscene profit and a hospital doing the same when people will die if they can't afford the price. Refusing to give aid that results in the death of another constitutes manslaughter, especially if you are a hospital.

Palerider, can't you see that if bird flu hit the world in full force then there would be a shortage of this vaccine, and it would cost money and the hospitals would either run out or charge people. And when it comes down to life and death, corruption will be rife and the rich will get the vaccine first.

[Rokerijdude11]

All that pale rider sees is "ROKERIJDUDE11"
thats the truth he has waged a personal vendetta upon My postings..........he spent all morning just trying to impress everyone with his Ad Hominem attacks on Rokerijdude11 he dosent care if he is right or wrong he just wants you all to see that he "Handled" ole roker

its amusing it seems to be his passion he has been gone about a week and came back to seemingly spend his day attacking me and my posts

fun

[Rokerijdude11]

So you aggree with him, but that is not the position that you hold? Interesting.


No just being "technical" taking your tack in this One simple question for you pal?
Did I EVER once.......ONCE.......anywhere in this thread,,, predict how this was going to come to be or how it would turn aout? answer JUST THE QUESTION because it is a resounding NO i didnt......Yes I agree with the assesment he made.........

If you are as old as you say that you are, tell me. How much did your parents pay for the polio vaccine? How about smallpox? How much do you think citizens in the 3rd world pay for various vaccines? How much do you believe their governments pay for them?
well what a LAME comparison.....for how long did they work with the polio disease and its vaccinations BEFORE they actually made vast amopunts of the drug widely availible for FREE in our schools? .......Now ARE they doing this same thing with Avian Bird Flu? can you show us where they are actively looking for the "CURE" to the spanish Flu or Avian Flu????....in an ongoing effort to rid the world of its possible disease? no you cant .there is NO comparison here ace...yeah i still have the vaccination mark so wjats your point?


How do you believe the flu shot that I get every year would affect my response to the N1H1 spanish flu virus? How do you believe that the flu shot that I get every year affects my response to any flu virus that is not the exact strain that the shot I get is manufactured against? You conspiracy theorists are a real hoot.
what is your Frigging problem ace? My opinion dosent account to truth.......or proof...nor ave i ever said so? I said IN MY OPINION that I believe they are actually infecting you when you recieve your flu shots.....


Ive NEVER had a Flu shot..........and i dont ever get the flu.....this is MY OPINION never did i say it was a conspiracy.nor did i imply such i clearly said that I FELT you were being infected you have comprehension issues i see


There is a vast difference between joe bob selling plywood off the back of his truck for an obscene profit and a hospital doing the same when people will die if they can't afford the price. Refusing to give aid that results in the death of another constitutes manslaughter, especially if you are a hospital.

I never once suggested that anyone was going to REFUSE AID what is you deal ? you ALWAYS infer things that people didnt say? that is your SOP in this forum you are pretty transparent about it too.........If the vaccine is not availible in the amount that is needed for the demands whats the hospital going to do ace? invent a vaccine? pull it out of theyre ass? piss in a cup and ask you to drink it? if its not out there its not out there PERIOD what a flawwed thought process.........oh wait its attack Roker....yeah you got that part down too bad you fell down on the rest of it!!

[palerider]

If you are going to deny and distance yourself from everything you say, why do you bother to say anything at all?

[Rokerijdude11]

Just to PISS in YOUR cheerios Buckwheat

[9sublime]

I'd say he probably eats unsugared corn flakes.

[Rokerijdude11]

maybe so

[DrWho]

Try 81 million
It is a killer
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,20966224-663,00.html
Don't take it lightly if you have flu syptoms

Presently the avian flu has killed about 60% of the people who have gotten it. Typically as flus become more prevalent they also become less lethal - after all it is not advantageuous to kill your hosts.

But 60% is huge and there is no gurantee that it will become less virulent.

I am about to respond to a few more posts so I might as well say it now. I am one of those people who tracks this flu and I have four months worth of food and supplies stored up in my home.

If any emergency happens I will be prepared. If not I will have a hedge against inflation and don't make so many trips to the store.

fluwiki.com is a good source if info.

[DrWho]

My friend according to FDA the pandemic occurs when a new influenza virus, which people have no immunity to, emerges and starts spreading as easily as normal influenza. The Department of Health is working to support NHS preparedness and to reduce the impact of pandemic flu on the USA population. So there is no worry until we saw any pres release from them.:rolleyes:

Their efforts are in the early planning stages. meanwhile when/if the pandemic starts it will sweep the world in a couple of weeks. If they are at all cautious and not wanting to create panic you will find out too late to make the preps you should make - do it now.

When 50% of the guys who work at the water treatment plant are at home with the flu who is going to make clean water for you to drink? If the other 50% cant do the job will they send out dirty water or shut it down?

[DrWho]

Seems to be more scaremongering to me. The articles are all assuming that the avian flu will be just as hard to treat and contain as the 1918 flu. This may come as a suprise to many of these doctors, but medicine has come a long way in the past 90 years. Scientists have been working on a way to stop this new strain of flu and many believe that they can alter its genetic structure to make it more treatable. With the leaps that medicine has made, I can't see much of a way for a virus to spread the same way it did in 1918. Let's not forget that the avian flu hasn't even crossed into humans yet, and may never cross into humans for that matter.

Medicine has come a long way and I am glad for this. The avian flu kills most through cyanosis - lack of oxygen to the tissues. The medical treatment for this is to use a ventilator. most of the ventilators in the us are already being used and hospitals do not have extras sitting around. these are expensive machines and they take time to produce. There will not be enough ventilators.

But the world has changed in many other ways too. In 1918 the hardes hit areas where the most heavily populated. Todays world is much more heavily populated than it was in 1918.

Also, in 1918 most stores stockpiled all the stuff they were going to be selling in the back room. Todays economy depends on "just in time" inventory meaning that stores stock just enough for tomorrows sales. if any part of the supply chain gets broken we will be out of food. Even if the US us well prepared (and we are not) an outbreak in china could stop the supply chain.

The world has changed alot and we won't know which changes will be beneficial or harmful until after the fact.

The only way to overcome the problems of just in time stocking is to stock what you will need yourself.

I hope it does not spread from human to human. But if it does it may take months to develop a vaccine. In the meantime there will be no cure.

Right now the greatest advancements in vaccines have been in asian countries and they have been very clear that they have no intention of sharing with us as things stand now.

[DrWho]

How much do you pay for a flu shot now? Exactly why do you believe that the vaccine for avian flu (should it ever be needed) would be more expensive to produce than any other flu vaccine?

Right now very few of the 6 billion people on this planet gets the annual flu shot. How many of them do you think will want a shot during a pandemic?

[DrWho]

Look back through history and name for me some examples of the cost of a vaccine going through the roof. If history is any indicator, the more likely senario is that the vaccine will be given away.

It seems that everyone is looking to the 1918 flu pandemic as a model for the next pandemic but there have been two pandemics since. The asian flu pandemic of 1957 killed about a million people and the hong kong flu pandemic of 1968 killed about 800,000. In all likelyhood, the next pandemic will kill considerably fewer. It was improvements in medicine between 1918 and 1957 that kept that pandemic from killing as many, not that the asian flu was any less virulent than the 1918 N1H strain. The same is true for the hong kong flu of 1968. It was a very virulent strain but medicine had improved and with it, prevention practices. We have come a very long way since 1968 and there is no reason to suspect that the next pandemic will even approach the fatality levels of the 1968 pandemic.

The media has created the fear of tens of millions dying in order to boost sales.

This is an excellent point. There are three kinds of pandemics - mild, moderate, and severe. The next one could be any of these. lets hope it does not happen and that if it does it will be mild.

[DrWho]

I agree with you that the media has created mass hysteria over this.


The media has attempted this but in reality nobody is really listening.

[DrWho]

Palerider, can't you see that if bird flu hit the world in full force then there would be a shortage of this vaccine, and it would cost money and the hospitals would either run out or charge people. And when it comes down to life and death, corruption will be rife and the rich will get the vaccine first.

This is all assuming that we can even make a vaccine 8 months after it starts at the earliest.

It may last about 2 years and come to your neighborhood in a few waves during this time.

By the time the vaccine is available you may not need it - you could be dead or immune.

[palerider]

I'd say he probably eats unsugared corn flakes.

Actually, I am not much of a cereal guy.