President Barack Obama's proposed budget relies on a commission without teeth to help his administration wrestle the deficit out of the danger zone. It forecasts stronger economic growth than most economists expect and calls on Congress to cut programs that lawmakers cherish.
All budgets from the White House are leaps of faith of some sort. This one is no exception.
The economic forecasts used in setting spending priorities are in line with independent expectations for now. After that, though, the administration's projections appear ever more fanciful.
A look at some budget assumptions and how they compare with the facts and political realities:
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BUDGET: Forecasts four years of growth of 4 percent or more and unemployment dropping to 8.2 percent in 2012.
THE FACTS: No one knows what will happen, but the administration's projections are rosier than private economists expect.
Likewise, the administration's projection that unemployment, currently 10 percent, will end the year around 9.8 percent is in line with the outlook of most private economists. Many are looking for the jobless rate to peak at about 10.5 percent this summer and then gradually decline as the recovery gains strength.
However, for next year, the administration is projecting the jobless rate will drop to an average of 9.2 percent and will average 8.2 percent in 2012, the presidential election year. Many private economists don't believe the jobless rate will improve that quickly, given all the headwinds now facing the economy.
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BUDGET: Save some $20 billion by cutting programs.
THE FACTS: Congress typically disregards most items on a president's budget-cutting wish list and puts money into the programs anyway. Several dozen of the programs Obama proposes cutting in the new budget were marked for elimination in his budget a year ago.
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BUDGET: Counts on a presidential commission to help the administration reduce the deficit to 3 percent of the overall economy, a level that private economists generally believe is manageable. That would be a significant improvement from this year's projected record-breaking $1.56 trillion deficit, which would equal 10.6 percent of GDP.
THE FACTS: The commission has yet to be appointed and there's no sure path to having its recommendations considered by Congress.
