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Here comes Obama's bounce!

Discussion in 'Elections & Political Parties' started by Popeye, Aug 28, 2008.

  1. Popeye

    Popeye Active Member

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    For all of you Obama haters hoping our next president wouldn't get a bounce from the convention, I have some bad news....in the space of three days he has gone from 2% down to 6% up (48-42%) in the Gallup tracking Poll and he hasn't even given his speech yet.

    Obviously the only thing bad about all this is McCain should get somewhat of a bounce himself and even failing that...bounces have a tendency to fade. Nevertheless, it's good to see.

     
  2. Pandora

    Pandora Well-Known Member

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    ITs about freaking time. Frankenstien aka John Freaking Kerry (who served in vietnam) got a bigger bounce than that when he picked his VP, again at his convention and generally was ahead this time in the game.

    Your Messiah needs to pick up the pace!
     
  3. Popeye

    Popeye Active Member

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    Do you have a link to your claim of Kerry's large bounce? I'd be willing to look at it because it clashes with what I have found. Bill Clinton got an unusually large bounce in 1992, but since then things have been rather tame:

    1996

    Dole-6.4%
    Clinton-4.2%

    2000

    Bush-1.5%
    Gore-7.4%

    2004

    Bush-3.4%
    Kerry-.3%

    In other words, in recent history bumps of any significance are not the norm. Bush won the presidency in 2000 with a convention bounce of just 1.5%.

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_VW8l01J93zY/SKHQhpkCIuI/AAAAAAAAAII/7a6WWSkl2FE/s1600-h/BUMPS.png
     
  4. BigRob

    BigRob Well-Known Member

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    Can we please get off posted a new thread daily for the new poll numbers. Put them in the same thread already.

    All of these polls are meaningless, the race is going to be basically 50-50 for the duration with minor spikes here and there, but nothing that is meaningful. The debates are what will win this election.
     
  5. Pandora

    Pandora Well-Known Member

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    I said what I did from memory, are your numbers during or right after the conventions? I am not sure if you are saying Frankenstien aka John Freaking Kerry ( who served in Vietnam) was only 3 points above Bush after his convention or he got a 3 pt bounce...... a 3 pt bounce on top of already being 7 points ahead would make him look pretty good. I was sure he was like way ahead of him after his convention. I guess it is possible I am mistaking John Freaking Kerry (who served in Vietnam) with AlGore?
     
  6. Popeye

    Popeye Active Member

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    The size of the bumps on the graph are calculated this way....

    the candidate's average share of the two-party vote in trial-heat polls conducted six days to two weeks prior to the start of the convention is subtracted from his share of the two-party vote in polls conducted during the seven days following the close of the convention. The change in poll standing is the the convention bump.

    BTW, Kerry's bounce,according to the graph, was not 3% it was point 3%. In other words, 3/10 of 1% or to put it another way, virtually nothing. Since Gore's bounce was 7.4%, as you suggest you could be confusing the two.

    http://election08data.blogspot.com/2008/08/convention-bumps.html

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_VW8l01J93zY/SKHQhpkCIuI/AAAAAAAAAII/7a6WWSkl2FE/s1600-h/BUMPS.png
     
  7. Pandora

    Pandora Well-Known Member

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    I am probably confusing the two, or I just like writing John Freaking Kerry ( who served in vietnam) better than I like typing AlGore :)

    How many points was Obama up in the spring? and where are those voters?
     
  8. pocketfullofshells

    pocketfullofshells Well-Known Member

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    Gore also was in Nam...I know it was not the most danger filled position, but he served in country and I dont think service in the miltary is less meaningfull based on what your rank and postion was...all serve there reasons. I dont care if you fought on the front line, or you made food back at base...your in danger, our away from home, and troops need food.
     
  9. Pandora

    Pandora Well-Known Member

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    John Freaking Kerry (who served in Vietnam) likes to remind us that he was there and so I honor him by adding it to his name, incase anyone did not know that he did serve in Vietnam. And he is ready to report for duty!
     
  10. Libsmasher

    Libsmasher New Member

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    The bounce comes from the idiots who watch TV - they have been treated to a week of a lib media love fest for their boy Obama. It'll fade just as quickly as it did for his trip to europe to qualify himself as a foreign policy expert. :D
     
  11. top gun

    top gun New Member

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    Speaking of the speech. I hear John McCain really wants to show he can compete with Senator Obama by really packing 'em in when he gives his acceptance speech next week.




    Word on the street is he's thinking about giving it in a large U Haul truck.:)
     
  12. Pandora

    Pandora Well-Known Member

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    Well I am sure he can not be nearly as ... what was the word Lord God Obama used?

    Humble, yes

    I am sure McCain can not top the humbleness of Obama tonight in his temple


    Hail Obama !!

    Long live the Führer of the National Socialist Party Or is that democrat party!

    I confuse them often
     
  13. Popeye

    Popeye Active Member

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    Obama now up by 8% in the Gallup daily tracking poll that's a swing of 10% in 3 days.
     
  14. top gun

    top gun New Member

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    It's only begining...:)
     
  15. top gun

    top gun New Member

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    It's only begining... We'll be at the BIG RALLY at Dublin Coffman High School here in Columbus tomorrow (Sat.) There doing the football stadium there and all the land around it.

    Wife & I were given preferred seating tickets from Obama for America staffers at the Convention rally we went to last night. We told them how we went to the previous rally 2 hours early and the line was wrapped one and a half times around the entire complex already. He said... I can take care of that for you, these are preferred held seats. You'll be somewhere in the front.

    Really nice folks!

    I'm sure snippets of the event will be on TV at some point...
    :)
     
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