Little-Acorn
Well-Known Member
This seems to be one of the more honest polls out there lately (that doesn't place the bar very high, I know). They actually admit straightforwardly, right in the text, that they asked a lot more Dems that Republicans. In most polls, you have to dig really deep into the raw numbers to find this out.
The other interesting thing is that the lopsided oversampling of Democrats, is cited among the LIKELY VOTERS. Oversampling of the raw samples they took, isn't mentioned in this poll. In many polls, the oversampling of Democrats is far greater among ALL the people they asked, than among those they decide are "likely voters".
Interestingly, that means that most of these polls are finding that a greater percentage of Republicans are "more likely" to vote than Democrats. What does that tell you about what the turnout on Nov. 6 is likely to be?
But, back to the subject: In this National Journal poll, they frankly admit that they included far more "likely voter" Democrats than "likely voter" Republicans in the final sample, from which their conclusions are drawn.
And after asking 24% more LV Democrats, did Obama get 24% more votes? No, he got 0% more votes than Romney in the final count.
This means that, if 24% more Dems actually vote on Nov. 6 than Republicans, the outcome will be a tie, or very close to that.
But what if, say, equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans vote on Nov. 6? It won't be a tie then.
The polls states that they asked a lopsided number of Democrats, because a lopsided number voted in the 2008 election. They are assuming the same lopsided number will also vote in 2012.
Just one little problem: In the most recent national election (2010), more Republicans voted than Democrats.
And recent trends show even more Republicans registering, expressing high interest and enthusiasm for voting in this coming election; while Democrats are disappointed, dispirited, and otherwise not so interested in voting this time.
It is highly likely that Republicans will turn out in greater numbers on Nov. 6 than Democrats... just as they did two years ago.
This poll also points out that Independents (the other major voting bloc) favor Romney over Obama by a large margin. If any of them vote, it will tip the balance in favor of Romney. And if LOTS of them vote, it will tip the balance HEAVILY toward Romney.
The bell is tolling, Democrats. And it is tolling for YOU.
------------------------------------
http://www.nationaljournal.com/daily/obama-romney-tied-among-likely-voters-20121002
Obama, Romney Tied Among Likely Voters
By Shane Goldmacher
Updated: October 3, 2012 | 9:58 a.m.
October 2, 2012 | 8:00 p.m.
President Obama and Mitt Romney are deadlocked among likely voters as they prepare to square off in their first presidential debate, according to the latest United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll.
The survey showed that voters remain resistant to either Obama or Romney holding full control of the federal government.
Obama and Romney each pulled in 47 percent support in the poll among likely voters. It is among the narrowest margins of several presidential surveys published ahead of the debate this week. Other polls have shown the president with a slim lead. In this survey, while the race is tied among likely voters, Obama has a 5-point lead, 49 percent to 44 percent, among registered voters.
The survey was conducted Sept. 27-30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
Romney led in the poll among independents, 49 percent to 41 percent, with both candidates winning more than 90 percent support from their respective parties. The survey had Obama winning 81 percent of the nonwhite vote and Romney carrying 55 percent of white voters.
In estimating the turnout on Nov. 6, the poll projects an electorate that is 74 percent white, 11 percent African-American, and 8 percent Latino. The likely-voter party splits are 36 percent Democratic, 29 percent Republican, and 30 percent independent.
The estimates are similar to the 2008 turnout, when, according to CNN exit polling, 74 percent of voters were white, 13 percent black, and 9 percent Latino, with Democratic turnout at 39 percent, Republicans at 32 percent, and independents at 29 percent.
The other interesting thing is that the lopsided oversampling of Democrats, is cited among the LIKELY VOTERS. Oversampling of the raw samples they took, isn't mentioned in this poll. In many polls, the oversampling of Democrats is far greater among ALL the people they asked, than among those they decide are "likely voters".
Interestingly, that means that most of these polls are finding that a greater percentage of Republicans are "more likely" to vote than Democrats. What does that tell you about what the turnout on Nov. 6 is likely to be?
But, back to the subject: In this National Journal poll, they frankly admit that they included far more "likely voter" Democrats than "likely voter" Republicans in the final sample, from which their conclusions are drawn.
And after asking 24% more LV Democrats, did Obama get 24% more votes? No, he got 0% more votes than Romney in the final count.
This means that, if 24% more Dems actually vote on Nov. 6 than Republicans, the outcome will be a tie, or very close to that.
But what if, say, equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans vote on Nov. 6? It won't be a tie then.
The polls states that they asked a lopsided number of Democrats, because a lopsided number voted in the 2008 election. They are assuming the same lopsided number will also vote in 2012.
Just one little problem: In the most recent national election (2010), more Republicans voted than Democrats.
And recent trends show even more Republicans registering, expressing high interest and enthusiasm for voting in this coming election; while Democrats are disappointed, dispirited, and otherwise not so interested in voting this time.
It is highly likely that Republicans will turn out in greater numbers on Nov. 6 than Democrats... just as they did two years ago.
This poll also points out that Independents (the other major voting bloc) favor Romney over Obama by a large margin. If any of them vote, it will tip the balance in favor of Romney. And if LOTS of them vote, it will tip the balance HEAVILY toward Romney.
The bell is tolling, Democrats. And it is tolling for YOU.
------------------------------------
http://www.nationaljournal.com/daily/obama-romney-tied-among-likely-voters-20121002
Obama, Romney Tied Among Likely Voters
By Shane Goldmacher
Updated: October 3, 2012 | 9:58 a.m.
October 2, 2012 | 8:00 p.m.
President Obama and Mitt Romney are deadlocked among likely voters as they prepare to square off in their first presidential debate, according to the latest United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll.
The survey showed that voters remain resistant to either Obama or Romney holding full control of the federal government.
Obama and Romney each pulled in 47 percent support in the poll among likely voters. It is among the narrowest margins of several presidential surveys published ahead of the debate this week. Other polls have shown the president with a slim lead. In this survey, while the race is tied among likely voters, Obama has a 5-point lead, 49 percent to 44 percent, among registered voters.
The survey was conducted Sept. 27-30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
Romney led in the poll among independents, 49 percent to 41 percent, with both candidates winning more than 90 percent support from their respective parties. The survey had Obama winning 81 percent of the nonwhite vote and Romney carrying 55 percent of white voters.
In estimating the turnout on Nov. 6, the poll projects an electorate that is 74 percent white, 11 percent African-American, and 8 percent Latino. The likely-voter party splits are 36 percent Democratic, 29 percent Republican, and 30 percent independent.
The estimates are similar to the 2008 turnout, when, according to CNN exit polling, 74 percent of voters were white, 13 percent black, and 9 percent Latino, with Democratic turnout at 39 percent, Republicans at 32 percent, and independents at 29 percent.
