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New flu pandemic 'would kill 62 million' - Times Online

Discussion in 'Health' started by News, Dec 22, 2006.

  1. News

    News Guest

    [​IMG]
    [SIZE=-2]HealthNews-Stats (press release)[/SIZE]
    New flu pandemic 'would kill 62 million'
    [SIZE=-1]Times Online - 7 hours ago[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=-1]Pandemic flu would kill 62 million people around the world, most of them in poorer countries, a new estimate suggests. The figures assume that a new pandemic would follow the same pattern as the 1918 Spanish flu, which killed at least 20 million people ...[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=-1]Experts Predict Avian Flu Pandemic Could Kill 62 Million People [SIZE=-1]Voice of America[/SIZE][/SIZE]
    [SIZE=-1]Global flu pandemic would probably kill 62m [SIZE=-1]Guardian Unlimited[/SIZE][/SIZE]
    [SIZE=-1]MSNBC - Independent Online - CBC News - Scientific American[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=-1]all 145 news articles[/SIZE]

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  2. davideyoung

    davideyoung New Member

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  3. brian_121

    brian_121 New Member

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    pandemic

    My friend according to FDA the pandemic occurs when a new influenza virus, which people have no immunity to, emerges and starts spreading as easily as normal influenza. The Department of Health is working to support NHS preparedness and to reduce the impact of pandemic flu on the USA population. So there is no worry until we saw any pres release from them.:rolleyes:
     
  4. Dave

    Dave New Member

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    Seems to be more scaremongering to me. The articles are all assuming that the avian flu will be just as hard to treat and contain as the 1918 flu. This may come as a suprise to many of these doctors, but medicine has come a long way in the past 90 years. Scientists have been working on a way to stop this new strain of flu and many believe that they can alter its genetic structure to make it more treatable. With the leaps that medicine has made, I can't see much of a way for a virus to spread the same way it did in 1918. Let's not forget that the avian flu hasn't even crossed into humans yet, and may never cross into humans for that matter.
     
  5. HighVoltage123

    HighVoltage123 New Member

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    Can you imagine how expensive will be the vaccine... it will be something like natural selection only the strongest (and the richest) will survive... :eek:
     
  6. palerider

    palerider Well-Known Member

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    How much do you pay for a flu shot now? Exactly why do you believe that the vaccine for avian flu (should it ever be needed) would be more expensive to produce than any other flu vaccine?
     
  7. 9sublime

    9sublime Active Member

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    If 63 million are likely to die I'm sure the flu shot would be in high demand and in short supply, so the price would be high. And it would take a while for it to be made after the outbreak has begun, and the world economy would be greatly effected, with stock market crashes etc. more than likely.
     
  8. I tend to agree with this very well summarized assesment of how it would actually occur. I think 9sublime has hit this dead on.
     
  9. palerider

    palerider Well-Known Member

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    Look back through history and name for me some examples of the cost of a vaccine going through the roof. If history is any indicator, the more likely senario is that the vaccine will be given away.

    It seems that everyone is looking to the 1918 flu pandemic as a model for the next pandemic but there have been two pandemics since. The asian flu pandemic of 1957 killed about a million people and the hong kong flu pandemic of 1968 killed about 800,000. In all likelyhood, the next pandemic will kill considerably fewer. It was improvements in medicine between 1918 and 1957 that kept that pandemic from killing as many, not that the asian flu was any less virulent than the 1918 N1H strain. The same is true for the hong kong flu of 1968. It was a very virulent strain but medicine had improved and with it, prevention practices. We have come a very long way since 1968 and there is no reason to suspect that the next pandemic will even approach the fatality levels of the 1968 pandemic.

    The media has created the fear of tens of millions dying in order to boost sales.
     
  10. palerider

    palerider Well-Known Member

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    Before you start predicting how it "will" occur, it is helpful to examine how it has "already" occured. In times of medical emergency, nations tend to give away vaccines, not charge outrageous prices for them. There are laws in place to prevent price gouging in emergencies. You can go to jail for trying to make an extra $5 on a sheet of plywood before a hurricaine, try selling a flu vaccine for more than its normal price.
     
  11. First of all Sparky.....


    I didnt Predict How it was going to occur? wtf dont you read?
    I agreed with someone elses assesment of how it may occur......are you able to tell the difference pal? Im really getting tired of your tactics, and soon have decided will begin using them on you...........


    Nations tend to give away vaccines.........wtf are you drinking ?in the capatilistic, Monetary driven ,United States economy, where Oil, and Drugs, run the show...... there isnt going to be any Friggin free vaccines!!!!! wake the f up .......

    How affordable are those Flu Vaccines? which BTW in My opinion, have set you all up for the fall, by planting the virus within you.we still have the spanish flu Virus under glass you know.

    sure you can go to jail for charging an extra five bucks at hurricane landfall ...are you this un-connected? I have property in florida...and was in New Orleans 4 days after landfall you live in a glass Bubble

    people can and do charge whatever they want .....in a time of emergency the Officials tasked with enforcing this type of behavior are far too busy ,to be checking to see how much your charging . what a glass world you live in friend
     
  12. 9sublime

    9sublime Active Member

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    I agree with you that the media has created mass hysteria over this. But have you read Malthus's essay on population? Population has to be controlled, otherwise the world becomes overpopulated, disease keeps it in check. It happens in the animal kingdom mainly with predators numbers vs preys numbers but also with disease if nothing is hunting a species. Its just that we are advanced enough since the industrial revolution etc. to be able to combat diseases like cholera etc. which occur when an area is too populated.


    I'm no expert on science, population or the economy, but its pretty obvious that we can't keep reproducing at this rate. So assuming the pandemic does happen there will be stock market crashes etc., maybe not in richer countries at first, or so severley, but it will happen. And then inflation will hit the roof, and with 6 billion people in the world, a vaccine that is being created DURING the pandemic, (because a cure can only be made when the disease is in existence) is going to cost a lot. It will be given away if it can in the USA, and the richest MEDC's, but not in south america, africa, the middle east etc. Only the rich will get it at first.

    And you say look back in history, vaccines prices never hit the roof. Your misinformed on the subject:

    Penicillin fell from being literally priceless to eventually $0.55 after 10 years of it being mass produced, because the war drove the price through the roof.

    AND anti viral drugs havn't been around long enough for you to spout drivel about 'look back through history'. Sure, you could find one or two examples of drugs staying cheap,being given out i.e. smallpox vaccination, but that was a while after it was created and sold.
     
  13. vyo476

    vyo476 Active Member

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    Malthus was more of a doomsday prophet than a scholar. So far science has managed to keep up with our burgeoning population. Many live in squalor but that's because of money, not a lack of supply. I'm starting to sound more like the science fiction nerd I am but I believe that colonization of other worlds (Mars being a great candidate for starters) will prove a solution to Malthus' "There won't be any room or any food!"

    And why will stock markets be crashing? And just for the sake of ****s and giggles, why won't they be happening in "the richest countries" at first? Virulent diseases certainly cause economic instability but don't essentially lead to economic crashes.
     
  14. 9sublime

    9sublime Active Member

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    Yeah but if this pandemic is all its being made out to be by even the more levelheaded part of the media, I'm pretty sure the world would go pretty haywire for a while...
     
  15. vyo476

    vyo476 Active Member

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    Funny you should say "haywire." Brings to mind Y2K, doesn't it?
     
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