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Polling Palin

Discussion in 'U.S. Politics' started by The Bare Knuckled Pundit, Jul 10, 2009.

  1. The Bare Knuckled Pundit

    The Bare Knuckled Pundit New Member

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    In light of recent polling data, reports of Sarah Palin's political death appear to have been a tad premature.

    Released Tuesday, Palin's numbers in a USA Today/Gallop poll indicate she retains a significant base of public support despite the abrupt announcement of her impending resignation as Governor of Alaska this past Friday. Taken Monday, the poll found that 43% of respondents were at least somewhat likely to vote for Palin were she to run for president in 2012, including 19% who indicated they were very likely to vote for the former Republican vice presidential nominee.

    While the poll identifies a solid base from which Palin might potentially launch her next foray into the national political scene, it also highlights a significant hurdle with 54% of respondents indicating they are not likely to vote for her. Of that group, 41% said they were not at all likely to do so. Significant as that is, Palin may find fertile ground for improving her standing in the 13% identifying themselves as not too likely to vote for her.

    Though purveyors of conventional wisdom in the punditocracy have issued their obituaries for Palin's political career, 39% of Americans said they would like to see her take on a major role on the national political stage. Again, belying the conventional political wisdom that the mavericky Conservative firebrand's appeal was isolated solely to her fellow political travelers, 34% of Independents supported a prominent role for Palin in the future. As one might naturally expect, Democrats were least supportive with 18%, while Republicans rewarded the charismatic mother of five and grandmother of one with 67%.

    Further demonstrating the inability of the punditocracy to accurately gauge the impact of Palin's enigmatic announcement, 70% of Americans said her decision to resign with 18 months remaining in her term had no affect on their view of her, be it positive or negative. This was followed by 17% who viewed her less favorably and 9% who were subsequently more inclined towards her.

    Not only does the data suggest the punditocracy's pronouncement of Palin's political death were premature, it also appears that they are increasingly out of touch with the electorate as a whole. Supporting their standard talking points, 70% of Democrats said they were not at all likely to vote for Palin for president in 2012. Given the tack of many pundits and their insistence on Palin's polarizing effect, one would expect a similar number of Republicans would be very likely to vote for her. This is not the case, though, with only 35% of Republicans indicating they were very likely to do so.

    Further evidence of the disconnect between the pundits and the public can be seen in Independent voters. Contrary to popular belief among talking heads, Independents are not repulsed en mass by Palin. Indeed, they track closely with overall public sentiment with 44% being at least somewhat likely and 54% at least somewhat unlikely to vote for her for president. While there is clearly Palin polarization, it appears to be firmly rooted in Democrat voters.

    Comparatively, Palin's current numbers trail those of Hillary Clinton in 2005. At the time, 52% of voters indicated they were likely to vote for her for president in 2008, with 28% saying they were very likely to do so. This illustrates the fact that front runner status early on is far from a guarantee of being their party's standard bearer at the end of the nominating race. Indeed, not only did Clinton lose to Obama- a first term US Senator who literally came out of nowhere over the course of four years - early Republican front runner Rudy Guliani failed to mount any semblance of a credible national campaign at all, much less seriously contend for the Grand Old Party's nomination. Palin and her die-hard supporters would be well advised to take this lesson to heart.

    Nonetheless, two things are striking in the current discussion over the perpetually perky pol's future. First is the fact that in less than a year she has roared from literal political obscurity in America's Great White North to center stage.

    This time last year, Palin was a relative unknown even among Republican activists and Conservative pundits. I myself listed her in the second tier of potential McCain running mates, particularly in light of the recent birth of son Trig. Though I believed she might well become a prominent player in national Republican politics, I didn't see it occurring any earlier than the 2010-2012 window. To be sure, her meteoric rise is surpassed only by that of the current occupant of the Oval Office.

    The next point that stands out is the media's recurrent inability to accurately analyze the unconventional.

    The week following the 2006 midterm election, the media summarily crowned Hillary Clinton the 2008 Democratic presidential nominee. Though they diligently covered Barack Obama's campaign announcement in February, 2007, it was treated primarily as a novelty. While his candidacy had historical and emotional resonance, Obama's odds were better of winning the multi-state Powerball lottery than bringing out of the pack of the Democratic Seven Dwarfs to even begin to conside seriously challenging the media-annointed Hillary. Not till Obama successfully repelled Clinton's dogged Super Tuesday counteroffensive did the media begin to grasp the force of the undercurrent that was swirling beneath the surface of the political waters. The same holds true for Palin.

    Initial coverage of Palin's selection as McCain's running mate varied from the historical significance of the first female on a Republican presidential ticket to amused novelty to open disbelief and condescension. The stories of unprecedented gender progress in the Republican Party were quickly replaced with attacks on her pregnant teenage daughter and self-righteous calls of hypocrisy. These were then replaced with guffaws at the candidate's interview and debate performances, her homespun style and colloquialisms eliciting disdainful smirks from her detractors. Add to this the recent Letterman saga and there's little wonder why 53% of Americans consider the media's coverage of Palin to be "unfairly negative". While the media may not understand her, her ability to identify with significant segments of the electorate or be able to recognized their own polarized caricaturization of her, it appears a significant number of voters can. And do.

    To some she is a dream, to others a nightmare, faithful readers.

    Stay tuned for further updates as events warrant and we see if Palin begins doing warm up laps around the country in preparation for the 2012 presidential marathon.
     
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  2. pocketfullofshells

    pocketfullofshells Well-Known Member

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    so quiting your job makes you more attractive to run for the pres as a republican? not sure what that means....maybe if McCain had quit he could have won ...
     
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  3. Bob the Builder

    Bob the Builder New Member

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    I find it amusing that all of the libs have conveniently forgotten that Napalotano quit her job as Governor of Arizona, that Sebelius (sp?) quit her job as Governor of Kansas, that Hillery quit her job as Senator from New York to serve as Sec State (in complete violation of the Constitution), and no telling how many others left the jobs that they were elected to. But of course since they're Demoncraps, the hypocritical libtards will never impose the same standards to them as they're applying to Palin.
     
  4. Pandora

    Pandora Well-Known Member

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    Darn, some had her dead and buried already…
     
  5. Pandora

    Pandora Well-Known Member

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    Dont forget obama .... who by the way at least twice promised to finish his 6 year term as Jr. Senator. Look at the absolute mess that happened when he left. Biden and Hillary too! but at least they did not promise like obama to do the full 6 year term.
     
  6. Bob the Builder

    Bob the Builder New Member

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    Oh, I know, and it ticked me off that McCain was out campaigning while he was on the payroll from Arizona too! To be honest, if there were one law I could get passed and signed, at least as far as it relates to campaigns, it would be that NOBODY who is holding an elected office may campaign for any other elected office. If you're a Governor, Rep, Senator, or Sheriff and you want to run for another office, you should have to wait until your current obligations are fulfilled, and that means no quitting just to run for another office either.
     
  7. Pandora

    Pandora Well-Known Member

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    I would not mind the quitting to run for another office but I agree they should not be paid to not do the job.

    That bothered me about McCain and all of them.


    But its just flat silly to be angry at her for quitting her job to do something else she wants to do and not be angry at THE WHOLE obama administration because every damn one of them did the same thing, and only obama that I know of promised to fullfill the full term.
     
  8. pocketfullofshells

    pocketfullofshells Well-Known Member

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    I forget what job did she quit to take over? She is going to be what now in the goverment that she was asked to serve? wait, nothing....

    why dont you try thinking of something that is actuly the same thing...she just quit , she was not asked to serve the white house or anything.
     
  9. Pandora

    Pandora Well-Known Member

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    She left that job to work for various people who are fighting for political things she agrees with, within and also out of government.

    She could not do that as Gov, also I think she wants to work on making money for her next political venture and that also she could not do while Gov.

    And nothing was getting done while she was Gov since she came back from the election. All she has been doing is paying out of pocket for attorneys to fight silly allegations; also the state of Alaska has had to pay to defend her against silly allegations.

    It’s better for Alaska and its better for her that she left. She also left a very competent person to replace her the moment she is done, unlike Biden, Clinton or obama.
     
  10. Bunz

    Bunz New Member

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    You're comparing apples to oranges. All of those people left thier current posts due to higher appointments. The same as both parties have done for the history of this country. The situation with Palin is quite different, and in many ways unprecedented.
     
  11. Bunz

    Bunz New Member

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    While I am certainly no supporter(shocker for the day) I do know plenty of her fans. Some of them live under the same roof, and more than a few in my town. She did manage to come and fish for an opener, with camera crew rolling. Kept real secret almost until she was gone really.
    Either way, even supporters of her are fairly miffed at her. She walked out on a lot of people.
    Why would she step down as the most influential Alaskan, a major voice in government policy. Her chance to showcase her abilities and gain executive office experience. She left that. Instead she is going to chase her celebrity dreams and campaign for other candidates? She has plenty of time to do that by announcing she wont be running for re-election. To give 4 weeks notice and hit the trail is pretty shallow.
    I dont disagree, I think you are correct actually. Its a shame it had to go like this.
    Not at all. She managed to rant and rave about how she was going to veto the stimulus money. Then she said she was gonna only take half. Then it turned out she only wanted %93. Of course that 7% she didnt want was probably the most actually needed. The Legislature had thier session, with the exception of a late introduced parental consent bill, all of her bills made progress or passed.
    She still managed to sign all of her bills. What has really taken away her time is not the bogus ethics complaints, but the travel to NYC and other trips she has made to be a priority. She goes to NY to attend a parade, and gets into a flap with Letterman.
    Note quite. She has the justice office whose role it would normally be to defend the Governor and give legal advice. Palin has chose to pay for her own legal defense. That is what the attorney general does.
    While I will say that Parnell is a very nice man. I have met him a number of times. He is also known for being a regular guy. Ill have to see him in action to give a better assessment. He is what most people would classify as a RINO, so there is lots to be seen IMHO.
     
  12. Pandora

    Pandora Well-Known Member

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    Poor Bunz, you live with Sarah Palin supporters? I do not think I could live in the same house as anyone who liked obama. I had a terrible time camping for 3 days with obama 2 bots. Actually my sister is no longer a drooling bot, now she is just "confused" because he didn’t do the things she felt he said he would do. But her husband is still a drooling bot and it would have been easier to shoot him than listen to him go on and on.

    I am glad she stepped down, I think this is the best move for her and her family. Perhaps now people who hate her will stop making fun of her Downs Syndrome infant. Had she stayed in office the anti Sarah Palin crowd would probably have Piper doing crack and being a street walker by the end of her term.
     
  13. Bob the Builder

    Bob the Builder New Member

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    "Quitting" as you call it, is still quitting regardless of what you're going to be doing once you've "quit". It doesn't matter if you're "quitting" to take a new job, "quitting" to write a book, "quitting" to spend more time with your family", or "quitting" because the Obliviot, libtard, butt-licking, sewer rats know that they can't compete in the Arena of Ideas so they resort to the "politics of personal destruction", intentionally targeting someone they don't like with one frivilous lawsuit and ethics charge after another and costing their target hundreds of thousands of dollars in legal fees to defend themselves against these spurrious charges.

    If EVER there was a glaring example for a need of "loser pays" tort reform, this is it! Personally if I were Palins advisor, I'd tell her to file her own lawsuits and drag their sorry butts into court and cost them a ton of money defending themselves.
     
  14. Bob the Builder

    Bob the Builder New Member

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    See my reply to pocket. You can try to eqivocate it any way you want to, but your people did the EXACT SAME THING. As far as it being "unprecedented", that's no surprise because there hasn't been a time in the past 160 years when political opponants were such lowlife, scum-sucking, inbred, mouthbreathing, sewer rats that they'd resort to the type of libelous tactics that you Demoncraps have used againt Palin.

    Well buddy, y'all called this dance, and you appear to condone those tactics, so don't complain when we use them against you!

    HYPOCRISY, THY NAME IS DEMOCRAT!!
     
  15. top gun

    top gun New Member

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    Thanks for the on-site info Bunz.

    I applaud you for being as fair as you are in reporting on Palin. I still remember when you let's say "questioned me":) about calling her Caribou Barbie before that became her standard moniker.

    I see you in kinda a tough spot.

    On one hand you love your state and when government officials up there look bad it makes Alaska look bad... and you certainly don't like that.

    On the other hand you're too damn honest not to call a squirrel and squirrel... especially considering the danger that squirrel could have put us all into running on the national stage knowing less than nothing.

    Oh Sarah... how can we miss you if you won't go away!:)

    Keep us posted my friend.
     
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