Sec. Gates proposes an end to the F-22 Program

[pocketfullofshells]

True in our simulations the F-22 outperforms the fighters of other nations. In my mind, the threat for the F-22 will come from China. The Chinese have their own 4th generation fighter, the J-XX, that will be a problem down the road. While not much is known about this fighter, what is on public record is that it is similar to the F-22, and could (in theory) be in service by 2015.

The problem will come should there be a crisis of Taiwan for example, and should we send F-22's in an attempt to protect the island (which is doubtful we even could) China would not go out and try to dogfight us, in my view they would simply target the bases that the F-22's came from, thus rendering them useless, unless we can defend our bases, which is highly doubtful against a full on Chinese attack.

if China wanted to retake taiwan, its going to. we make some defence of it, but will then back down. most likely would be cruise missile attacks on the island from ships , silkworm missiles...and pound them a bit with ships guns as well. Air Power will be used, but you cant retake a island with a plane. The Majority of China's air force would be protecting its ships with of course some fighters and bombers going in. Just my guess.

 

[BigRob]

if China wanted to retake taiwan, its going to. we make some defence of it, but will then back down. most likely would be cruise missile attacks on the island from ships , silkworm missiles...and pound them a bit with ships guns as well. Air Power will be used, but you cant retake a island with a plane. The Majority of China's air force would be protecting its ships with of course some fighters and bombers going in. Just my guess.

Yea, if China really wanted to take Taiwan, they could do it in a matter of hours. At that point the argument probably comes out of "why do we want to fight China over Taiwan" or "we are not going nuclear over this, and a conventional war is out." Underscores the importance of our nuclear promises, which we seem to be hell bent on making worthless.

 

[The Scotsman]

I reckon if the Chinese navy came anywhere near Taiwan the US and Taiwanese Navies would turn the Straits of Formosa into the worlds biggest swimming pool.

 

[Mr. Shaman]

We have been fully engaged in a global economic war at least since 1945, and we are losing.

While it is true that every F-22 we make strengthens us militarily, there is a tipping point where each additional F-22 weakens us strategically. I believe that Secretary Gates is aware of this and it is the basis for his decision.

.....Not to mention PRECEDENCE!!!!!​

"As Eisenhower concluded, "Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together."​

 

[Andy]

Yea, if China really wanted to take Taiwan, they could do it in a matter of hours. At that point the argument probably comes out of "why do we want to fight China over Taiwan" or "we are not going nuclear over this, and a conventional war is out." Underscores the importance of our nuclear promises, which we seem to be hell bent on making worthless.

I've never really understood that idea myself. Why Taiwan? Of course I also have never really understood why China would make it an issue either.

 

[BigRob]

I've never really understood that idea myself. Why Taiwan? Of course I also have never really understood why China would make it an issue either.

The US has made it an issue to defend to ensure credibility. Do we really care if China takes Taiwan? Probably not. However, Japan sure does. If we cave on Taiwan, it is a clear signal to every ally we have security assurances with that we have no intention of honoring them. At that point, that is the end of American hegemony really.

For China, their government has turned it into a nationalism issue. Do they really care about Taiwan? Probably not, but they use it to fuel nationalist pride which is critical to the regime survival over there. Therefore, they can't really back off of the issue either.

 

[The Scotsman]

The US has made it an issue to defend to ensure credibility. Do we really care if China takes Taiwan? Probably not.

.............. interesting. Credibility of what? If China were allowed to re-unify through US inaction what message would that send and where would credibility go?

 

[pocketfullofshells]

Yea, if China really wanted to take Taiwan, they could do it in a matter of hours. At that point the argument probably comes out of "why do we want to fight China over Taiwan" or "we are not going nuclear over this, and a conventional war is out." Underscores the importance of our nuclear promises, which we seem to be hell bent on making worthless.

I dont see us having nukes really changing that issue much. Fact is, nukes or not, China knows we are not going to use them on them over Taiwan...or really any reason outside they invaded us and we are losing or they nuked us first.

 

[pocketfullofshells]

.............. interesting. Credibility of what? If China were allowed to re-unify through US inaction what message would that send and where would credibility go?

the fact that we have pledged to Defend Taiwan, and would fail to do so. meaning why should anyone who we have those same deals with , believe us.

 

[Mr. Shaman]

A video about radiation exposure is supposed to be your response to the issue of light vs heavy in the army?

Only to those "conservatives" who still (actually) think there's legitimate-value to Nukes.

​

"In doing so, Gates is taking sides in the debate over the size and scope of future conflicts — advancing the idea that the next U.S. war could resemble both a conventional war and an insurgency at the same time, a so-called hybrid war that would make some of those big weapons systems so prized in Congress obsolete."​

 

[BigRob]

.............. interesting. Credibility of what? If China were allowed to re-unify through US inaction what message would that send and where would credibility go?

Credibility of the United States extended nuclear deterrence that we have given to around 30 nations. The credibility of that combats proliferation and makes the world a safer place.

 

[BigRob]

I dont see us having nukes really changing that issue much. Fact is, nukes or not, China knows we are not going to use them on them over Taiwan...or really any reason outside they invaded us and we are losing or they nuked us first.

I do not think China "knows" that actually, and it is this fear (brought about by the credibility of our extended deterrence) that helps to prevent any takeover already.

 

[BigRob]

Only to those "conservatives" who still (actually) think there's legitimate-value to Nukes.

​

There are almost zero strategists and politicians (on both sides of the aisle) that think zero nuclear weapons is the way to go. In fact, even President Obama knows there a continued use for nuclear weapons.

The argument comes down to use vs non-use, not possession vs. non-possession.

 

[pocketfullofshells]

I do not think China "knows" that actually, and it is this fear (brought about by the credibility of our extended deterrence) that helps to prevent any takeover already.

I think pissing off a major trading partner scares them a lot more then our nukes.

 

[BigRob]

I think pissing off a major trading partner scares them a lot more then our nukes.

I don't really buy into the Economic Dependency Theory, but certainly many smart people do. I just think the historical record (such as the 30 years war) shows it is not reliable.

During that period, Europe was extremely interconnected economically, and still launched into an all out war. I think it is a lot harder to prove empirically that economic considerations prevented war in most cases. In my view the EDT is a nice theory, but practically I think it is unreliable at best.

Not to mention, China has multiple nuclear missiles of their own aimed at the United States currently, in an attempt to deter the US from getting involved in a Taiwan crisis. I think our credibility still is on the minds of the Chinese leadership in this area however, and we need to ensure that it remains there.