Seismologists Tried for Manslaughter for Not Predicting Earthquake

Little-Acorn

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I'm still not sure this isn't a joke. I checked, and it isn't from The Onion, though it should be.

But just in case they're serious... when can we sue Al Gore for 3rd degree murder, for not predicting the tornado that hit Joplin, MO last week?

When can we sue the parole board as accomplices to murder, who didn't monitor John Gardner before he stalked and killed at least two girls in southern California in the last year?

This is so classic "big-govt"-ese. Big-govt advocates constantly assume that "officials in charge" can see all, know all, and do all. And they promise us wonderful benefits if only we would put their programs into place.

Sure, the benefits would be huge if we would cure criminals in prison, so that they would not want to commit crimes any more...if we knew how to do it. It would be great to reward merit instead of rewarding results...if we knew how to do it.

These people are blithely assuming the scientists knew how to predict earthquakes... despite all evidence that they don't. And now they are charging those scientists with manslaughter, for failing to do what nobody can do.

Only in America. Except, this time it's in Italy.

This time.

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http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience...riedformanslaughterfornotpredictingearthquake

Seismologists Tried for Manslaughter for Not Predicting Earthquake

Jeanna Bryner, LiveScience Managing Editor,
LiveScience.com
Thu May 26, 5:55 pm ET

Earthquake prediction can be a grave, and faulty science, and in the case of Italian seismologists who are being tried for the manslaughter of the people who died in the 2009 L'Aquila quake, it can have legal consequences.

The group of seven, including six seismologists and a government official, reportedly didn't alert the public ahead of time of the risk of the L'Aquila earthquake, which occurred on April 6 of that year, killing around 300 people, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

But most scientists would agree it's not their fault they couldn't predict the wrath of Mother Nature.

"We're not able to predict earthquakes very well at all," John Vidale, a Washington State seismologist and professor at the University of Washington, told LiveScience.

Even though advances have been made, the day scientists are able to forecast earthquakes is still "far away," Dimitar Ouzounov, a professor of earth sciences at Chapman University in California, said this month regarding the prediction of the March 11 earthquake in Japan.

The decision to try the six members of a committee tasked with determining the risk of an earthquake in the area (along with a government official) was announced on Wednesday (May 25) by Judge Giuseppe Romano, according to a news article from the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Some people said the committee should've seen it coming, because of the earthquake swarms that occurred days before the big one struck, Vidale said.

"We get swarms of earthquakes all the time without a big earthquake. There was nothing strange about this swarm to suggest a big earthquake," Vidale said in a telephone interview.

Regarding the charges against the Italian seismologists, Vidale said "we're offended" that they are being charged with a crime "for telling the truth." That truth is, he added, there was nothing to say that the level of danger was enough to warrant any public action.

"One problem is we don't know how much stress it takes to break a fault," Vidale said. "Second we still don't know how much stress is down there. All we can do is measure how the ground is deforming." Not knowing either of these factors makes it pretty tough to figure out when stresses will get to the point of a rupture, and an earth-shaking quake, he explained.
 
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I read another story about these charges and the scientists are not being charged for failing to predict the quake, they're being charged with falsely reassuring the public. Apparently, when the earthquake swarm was happening, the commission outright told the public that there was no reason to worry. If that's true, I can understand the charges being brought against them.
 
I read another story about these charges and the scientists are not being charged for failing to predict the quake, they're being charged with falsely reassuring the public. Apparently, when the earthquake swarm was happening, the commission outright told the public that there was no reason to worry. If that's true, I can understand the charges being brought against them.

This is a tough call, and another case of "twisting" a story just enough to turn it into a "scandal".

Being charged with a crime for not predicting an earthquake is ludicrous.

Being charged with a crime for basically telling people that there would NOT be a major earthquake is an entirely different thing.

This whole thing is about walking a very fine line, and it may be a perfect example of assigning blame to soften the blow of a natural disaster, ala blaming Bush for the aftermath of Katrina.
 
This should pretty thoroughly discourage anyone who wants a career as a seismologist in Italy. Count on seismologists being as scarce as hens' teeth for the forseeable future.

On the other hand, they're going to get strident warnings that "The Big One is going to hit NOW!!!!"

....every day for the next ten years.

EVERY day.

Pretty quickly, people will stop paying attention.

Then, five years later, when a Big One actually comes and a thousand people die... who will they sue then?

We get bunches of (little) earthquakes in California every day. EVERY day. See link below for the latest week's tally:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqscanv/FaultMaps/116-33.html

Where are OUR warnings of doom?

.
 
This isn't just about major earthquakes. The Mediterranean is a very active volcanic area, and earthquake swarms can indicate that an eruption is imminent. They don't usually mean that, but they can be a warning. If these scientists had told the public that nothing was wrong and then a volcano erupted in a densely populated area, that would be a very, very serious situation. That's why Italy can't afford to allow this particular commission to give inaccurate or misleading information to the public.
 
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I have no problem with the entire "left coast" falling off into the ocean. Thinning out the gene pool by getting rid of a few million leftists and enviro-nazis would be a positive step towards stopping the madness.
 
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