Strange, I didn't know that the future belonged to solar.
Of course, I did work for over 20 yrs in a 2000 megawatt fossil fuel generating plant. (1000mw/coal, 1000mw/natgas combined cycle) I'm probably a little biased.
I certainly see a niche place for solar, geothermal, etc.,but understand the impracticality of any large scale use of these technologies.
I see nuclear fission power plants as the only practical interim solution for large scale power generation.
Long term? Nuclear fusion. Of course, practical fusion generation has been elusive. Fifty years ago is was ten years from practical use. Forty years ago it was ten years from practical use. Thirty, twenty, ten years ago it was ten years from being practical. Due to secrecy surrounding it's developement, it's a little hard to keep up with the latest news, but since control technologies were my specialty, I suspect we may already be there.
Well, this is according to Futurist Kurtzwiel who predicted the fall of the Soviet Union.
Keep in mind that they're developing new Solar Technologies that have incredible efficiencies, even on Cloudy days.
If Solar continues to double in efficiency every 2 years, just like computers and just like it has for the past 20 years, then:
- Within 5 to 6 years, most new homes will begin to be made with Solar Integrated and providing about half to 3/4 the power they need.
- Within 8 to 10 years, most people will begin to buy Panels, to replace most of their energy from the Grid.
- Within 15 to 20 years Nano-Engineered Fuel Cells should be efficient enough to allow all electric and Solar long range Auto's to be cheaply made.
- Within 15 years Gas stations will begin to disappear, especially in the South (temperate areas) as more and more cars will be sold using very little to zero gas, (Hybrids will still be popular up north because of high electricity requirements for Heaters - Internal combustion engines produce a lot of heat).
- Wthin about 20 years Nano-Engineered Fuel Cells will start to completely replace the Power Grid, being recharged during the daytime Solar.
- Within about 20 years, almost all new construction will not require hookup to the Ancient Power Grid.
All of this will cost us less, much less than what we're paying now. Think of Computers and how you now have what was considered a $100,000.00 Super Computer 20 years ago, you now have sitting on your desk. It will be the same with Solar. What costs today 35K to give a house 5 to 6K watts of power will cost in the future a 1/10 of that giving you 3 to 4X the power.
And while you may be thinking to yourself, "Oh, you can't predict the future, It's already happening. Solar panels are made of Silicon, the same materials that Computer chips are made of and a lot of the advancements in computer chips can actually be applied to Solar.
If you look at the progression of Solar, a system that today produces about 5000 watts, costs around $34,000.00 and will take up about the entire roof of an average home.
The same system 20 years ago would have cost 3.4 Million Dollars and take up almost 20 times more space. In other words,
manufacturing costs are down to 1% of what they were 20 years ago.
Part of the problem is, most people don't think outside the box. Just like Cell phones, first people used them only for work. Then they used it as an accessory, now many people use it as their primary phone. Like me, I no longer have a regular land line phone, I have an 8MB Cable connection to where I connect my Packet8 Videophone, and when someone calls me on it, it simulrings to my, and my wife's cellphone at the same time. If I'm home, I pick up the wireless phone that I have hooked up to the thing, and if it's family (everyone in my family has this phone) then we get to see each other. What do I pay for this futuristic setup? $25.00 a month. No long distance bills, no "extra fees" for any features, it's all included.
20 years ago, if I would have told you, you're not going to use your land based phone anymore, you'll be using the Internet, you would have probably though I was crazy.
