A word about polls

Dr.Who

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A quote from this article:

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/309347/why-are-so-many-pollsters-oversampling-democrats#

Starting in 1992, EVERY Pew poll appears to lean to one directionalways towards the Democrat, and by an average of more than 5 percentage points. Worse this is a reflection of the “final” poll which even the Democratic firm, Public Policy Polling, usually gets right.

October 1988 — Bush 50 Dukakis 42; Actual Result Bush +7.6 (Call this one spot on.)

Late October 1992 — Clinton 44 Bush 34; Actual Result :Clinton +5.5 (Skew against Republican candidate +5.5)

November 1996 — Clinton +51 Dole 32; Actual Result Clinton +8.5 (Skew against Republican candidate +10.5)


November 2000 — Gore 45; Bush 41 (Skew against Republican Candidate +3.5)

November 2004 — Kerry 46; Bush 45 (Skew against Republican Candidate +3.4)

November 2008 — Obama 50 McCain 39 (Skew against Republican + 3.8)

After being wrong in the same direction so consistently, wouldn’t you think that Pew might attempt to adjust their sampling techniques to adjust their techniques to avoid under-sampling Republican voters?

Bear in mind that this is only what happens in the final poll before the election. Polls taken earlier are even less accurate and more skewed.
 
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dogtowner

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A quote from this article:

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/309347/why-are-so-many-pollsters-oversampling-democrats#

Starting in 1992, EVERY Pew poll appears to lean to one directionalways towards the Democrat, and by an average of more than 5 percentage points. Worse this is a reflection of the “final” poll which even the Democratic firm, Public Policy Polling, usually gets right.

October 1988 — Bush 50 Dukakis 42; Actual Result Bush +7.6 (Call this one spot on.)

Late October 1992 — Clinton 44 Bush 34; Actual Result :Clinton +5.5 (Skew against Republican candidate +5.5)

November 1996 — Clinton +51 Dole 32; Actual Result Clinton +8.5 (Skew against Republican candidate +10.5)


November 2000 — Gore 45; Bush 41 (Skew against Republican Candidate +3.5)

November 2004 — Kerry 46; Bush 45 (Skew against Republican Candidate +3.4)

November 2008 — Obama 50 McCain 39 (Skew against Republican + 3.8)

After being wrong in the same direction so consistently, wouldn’t you think that Pew might attempt to adjust their sampling techniques to adjust their techniques to avoid under-sampling Republican voters?

Bear in mind that this is only what happens in the final poll before the election. Polls taken earlier are even less accurate and more skewed.


well if their goal was accuracy then sure they would
 
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