Copenhagen will be a missed last chance

Stalin

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Not sure what is happened in the US, but here in the South Pacific the climate change agenda has been hijacked by the usual suspects.

"...An extraordinary deal finalised Tuesday between the Labor government and the opposition Liberal Party on legislation enacting an Australian carbon emissions trading scheme will strip low and middle income earners of nearly $6 billion previously allocated as compensation for higher fuel and energy costs. The money will now be used to cover the bulk of an additional $7 billion allocated to the major corporate polluters, bringing the grand total of public funds to be transferred to business through the emissions trading scheme to a staggering $A123.4 billion ($US114.1 billion). The final terms of the government’s so-called Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS)—set to be approved by parliament this week and to commence operations in 2011—underscore that the mechanism has nothing to do with protecting the environment, but is driven by the interests of corporate Australia.

The additional $7 billion subsidy will go to different sections of business—an extra $1.3 billion for industries classed as “energy intensive, trade exposed”; a doubling of assistance to the coal industry, making a total of $1.5 billion; about $3 billion more to electricity generators; compensation of $1.1 billion to large and medium businesses for energy price rises; and various other measures including $600 million for the liquid natural gas sector and $150 million for food processing companies...

more at http://www.wsws.org/articles/2009/nov2009/etss-n26.shtml


"The Bill to amend the ETS isn’t available yet, but this is what it looks like, from Monday night’s announcement.

Basically, it’s less obligation for everyone, and more delay. It seriously weakens the scheme we have now, and will do little to reduce emissions.

Agriculture gets two more years free holiday and has no obligations until 2015. That’s another five years when land prices will rise because farming’s emissions are being paid for by the rest of us, and more and more forest land will be converted to dairying.

Energy and industrial processes are delayed 6 months, till July next year. That was inevitable because officials had been told to stop work on the allocation plans when National became government, so there was no plan for allocating the free credits to industry and there would have been chaos. Transport comes in the same time, 6 months earlier than planned – small tick for that one.

However, when energy and transport do come in, their obligations are halved. They only have to purchase one emissions unit for every two tonnes of emissions. That halves the price signal to big trucks and weakens the incentive to send goods by rail. It halves the signal to use the car less or buy a smaller more efficient car. It halves the incentive to build renewable electricity rather than coal or gas. It halves the value of converting a boiler to wood instead of coal. It doubles the free allocation from the taxpayer to Rio Tinto aluminium smelter and other multinational energy intensive plants.

This is supposed to be until the end of 2012, but it is left open to continue longer.

Then, the free credits continue for the rest of the century. True. They are phased out at 1.3% a year which would take till around 2090.

However the worst feature of the new proposal is none of these. It is the proposal that free credits be allocated on the basis of how much a firm produces. It’s called “intensity based” or “output based” allocation. It means there is no limit ever to NZ’s emissions; they never peak and start to trend downwards; and the incentive is to grow our most polluting industries. It works like this.

A cement plant (or steel, or aluminium) currently produces 100 tonnes of product and emits 500 tonnes of greenhouse gases. Under the existing law, let’s assume the same numbers were true of 2005. They would then get free allocations for 90% of this pollution, or 450 units, and have to purchase 50 units. If they managed to become more efficient and reduce their pollution they would have less to purchase. If they grew their production to 150 tonnes at the same energy intensity and therefore emitted 750 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, they would still get only 450 free credits. So when they did the financial analysis about whether to expand production, the cost of carbon credits they would have to purchase would be part of the calculation. There would be a strong incentive to find new technology that emitted less pollution per tonne of product, or to invest their capital in something with lower greenhouse gases per dollar of value created. This is how a country can transition to a low carbon economy. At the same time, cement, steel and aluminium become more expensive and new technology is developed to build strong buildings using less cement, and in some circumstances to substitute strengthened timber for steel or concrete.

Under the new scheme, the plant gets a free allocation for every tonne of product they make. If the starting point is 450 tonnes for 100 tonnes of production, when they expand to produce 150 tonnes of product they get 90% of 750 units, or 675 units. When considering whether to expand, the firm never faces the full price of carbon on the next unit of product. They only ever face 10% of it. This leads to an economy where our most carbon and energy intensive industries grow and there is little reason for new technology or low carbon production or switching from high to low intensity materials. It is an economy stuck in the past, unable to transition to the new, hi-tech, climate-friendly future.

There is also a provision that the allocation will be related to the industry average emissions for that level of production. This raises more problems than it solves. It is unclear at this stage when the industry average is international or NZ, and how it is determined.

Of course, if the plant expands its production so that it emits 750 tonnes rather than 500, that becomes part of New Zealand’s obligation under Kyoto. As a country, we have to purchase units overseas to balance out that extra 250 tonnes. The difference between 450 free units under the old scheme, and 675 under National’s proposed scheme is picked up by taxpayers.

http://www.greens.org.nz/factsheets...arty-proposed-ets-different-and-what-wrong-it

Comrade Stalin
 
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Don't you hate it when people point out how baseless and insupportable your agenda is... and you can't refute them?

Too bad, so sad.

As I've pointed out before, the leftists have had FORTY YEARS since the first Earth Day to come up with studies proving a link between man's activities and global (warming, coolinng, whatever the flavor of the month is).

And in that forty years, they have come up with NOTHING. No link, no proof, nada. Just things like, "Man is burning more fossil fuels. The climate is gettting (cooler, warmer, whichever). Therefore man's burning of fossil fuels is causing this climate change."

This is also known as the "Breakfast causes lunch" theory.

That plus a lot of "scientists" who merely point to this fallacy, and more "scientists" who ponit to those "scientists'" reports, ad infinitum.

Forty years, and not a single study that actually proves anything about man's impact on climate change.

And now, with the revelations of censorship, fudged data, and intimidation by leftist fanatics in the global-whatever community, we're starting to see why. There IS no proof, because no link exists: Man's activity HASN'T had any effect on the climate. And all the leftists have been able to do is conceal it, fake it, censor those who try to point out the truth.
 
Don't you hate it when people point out how baseless and insupportable your agenda is... and you can't refute them?

Too bad, so sad.

As I've pointed out before, the leftists have had FORTY YEARS since the first Earth Day to come up with studies proving a link between man's activities and global (warming, coolinng, whatever the flavor of the month is).

And in that forty years, they have come up with NOTHING. No link, no proof, nada. Just things like, "Man is burning more fossil fuels. The climate is gettting (cooler, warmer, whichever). Therefore man's burning of fossil fuels is causing this climate change."

This is also known as the "Breakfast causes lunch" theory.

That plus a lot of "scientists" who merely point to this fallacy, and more "scientists" who ponit to those "scientists'" reports, ad infinitum.

Forty years, and not a single study that actually proves anything about man's impact on climate change.

And now, with the revelations of censorship, fudged data, and intimidation by leftist fanatics in the global-whatever community, we're starting to see why. There IS no proof, because no link exists: Man's activity HASN'T had any effect on the climate. And all the leftists have been able to do is conceal it, fake it, censor those who try to point out the truth.

There are tons of links.

Greenhouse gases are pollution plain and simple. Smog is an effect of greenhouse gases. The ozone layer has very well mapped out atmospheric holes in it due to greenhouse gases.

And while it's true changing a whole entire planets climate is a very slow and gradual effect it is happening. Intelligent people tend to want to start working on a problem before it's a major crisis. That's all that's going on here.



 
One of the most liberal voices NEWSWEEK has ran many articles in the past few years suggesting global warming is a disaster waiting to happen.

But before 1980, they ran articles warming about global cooling?
http://denisdutton.com/cooling_world.htm

Global warming is a myth and has been now exposed, like Bill Clinton's affairs!

http://www.wordiq.com/definition/Global_cooling

When we question the liberal lies we never get a good answer!
 
One of the most liberal voices NEWSWEEK has ran many articles in the past few years suggesting global warming is a disaster waiting to happen.

But before 1980, they ran articles warming about global cooling?
http://denisdutton.com/cooling_world.htm

Global warming is a myth and has been now exposed, like Bill Clinton's affairs!

http://www.wordiq.com/definition/Global_cooling

When we question the liberal lies we never get a good answer!

The truth is that we learn things all the time about how pollution affects various things on the planet.

And the planet does go through some natural heating & cooling on it's own. It doesn't stay at one exact temperature. But there's also no denying that if you pump enough of any type of pollution or gases into the environment it does affect things negatively.

You can look at even little things and imagine just what they cause on a worldwide scale. I'll give an example...

In the spring I used to set my snowblower out in the back yard running until all the gas was gone for summer storage. But I noticed later that doing so caused the grass to brown out (die) right in that spot and I realized it was from something as simple as the exhaust fumes settling to the ground.

Now imagine the effect of billions of vehicles running all the time worldwide let alone the millions of factories.

All people are trying to do is come up with ways that allow us to go about our daily business in a cleaner way that has less negative environmental impact... and that includes the greenhouse effect.



 
If we pollute the earth and co2 levels increase, then, it seems without fail, the temperatures would be astronomical by now.
It's not been hotter anywhere than it was in 1998. So let's see 11 years of additional c02 and no increased temperatures.

How does that make any sense to anyone.? It doesn't!!!!
 
If we pollute the earth and co2 levels increase, then, it seems without fail, the temperatures would be astronomical by now.
It's not been hotter anywhere than it was in 1998. So let's see 11 years of additional c02 and no increased temperatures.

How does that make any sense to anyone.? It doesn't!!!!

good point.

I supose they could say its all the efforts in recycling, reducing, strict rules on business that has kept polution down so c02 levels are not as bad, thus making warming less??

that is at least the spin I would try if I were a believer in it :)
 
If we pollute the earth and co2 levels increase, then, it seems without fail, the temperatures would be astronomical by now.
It's not been hotter anywhere than it was in 1998. So let's see 11 years of additional c02 and no increased temperatures.

How does that make any sense to anyone.? It doesn't!!!!

Our planet has a lot of absorbing capability it's true.

But the building damage is clear. Most damage seems to go to the poles. There we see the once nonexistent and now enlarging holes in the ozone. That's why most damage is happening to polar ice caps.

But keep you head in the sand like the guy who used to get his drinking water downstream from the outhouse. Eventually you'll realize those really aren't floating Baby Ruth bars.;)

As for me... I'm more for taking some action now.


 
Our planet has a lot of absorbing capability it's true.

But the building damage is clear. Most damage seems to go to the poles. There we see the once nonexistent and now enlarging holes in the ozone. That's why most damage is happening to polar ice caps.

Althought the Arctic Circle has become smaller, the ice in the Antarctic has become thicker demonstrating that there has been a magnetic shift. Most climate change studies recognize magnetic shifts and solar flares as the primary cause of changing temperatures.

I'm all for keeping the planet clean, but the idea of Cap and Trade is a stroke of genius for industrialists who want to hide pollution and for the brokers who will make 20% on every trade. Everyone wants to talk about a never ending list of conspiracies, but this one here is a world wide manipulation that will line the pockets of a few at the cost of the many.
 
The recently released Copenhagen Diagnosis, an update from IPCC from the last full report displays a sobering picture of where we are going.

"...Surging greenhouse gas emissions: Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in 2008 were nearly 40% higher than those in 1990. Even if global emission rates are stabilized at present –day levels, just 20 more years of emissions would give a 25% probability that warming exceeds 2oC. Even with zero emissions after 2030. Every year of delayed action increase the chances of exceeding 2oC warming.

Recent global temperatures demonstrate human-based warming: Over the past 25 years temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.190C per decade, in every good agreement with predictions based on greenhouse gas increases. Even over the past ten years, despite a decrease in solar forcing, the trend continues to be one of warming. Natural, short- term fluctuations are occurring as usual but there have been no significant changes in the underlying warming trend.

Acceleration of melting of ice-sheets, glaciers and ice-caps: A wide array of satellite and ice measurements now demonstrate beyond doubt that both the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets are losing mass at an increasing rate. Melting of glaciers and ice-caps in other parts of the world has also accelerated since 1990.

Rapid Arctic sea-ice decline: Summer-time melting of Arctic sea-ice has accelerated far beyond the expectations of climate models. This area of sea-ice melt during 2007-2009 was about 40% greater than the average prediction from IPCC AR4 climate models.

Current sea-level rise underestimates: Satellites show great global average sea-level rise (3.4 mm/yr over the past 15 years) to be 80% above past IPCC predictions. This acceleration in sea-level rise is consistent with a doubling in contribution from melting of glaciers, ice caps and the Greenland and West-Antarctic ice-sheets.

Sea-level prediction revised: By 2100, global sea-level is likely to rise at least twice as much as projected by Working Group 1 of the IPCC AR4, for unmitigated emissions it may well exceed 1 meter. The upper limit has been estimated as – 2 meters sea-level rise by 2100. Sea-level will continue to rise for centuries after global temperature have been stabilized and several meters of sea level rise must be expected over the next few centuries.

Delay in action risks irreversible damage: Several vulnerable elements in the climate system (e.g. continental ice-sheets. Amazon rainforest, West African monsoon and others) could be pushed towards abrupt or irreversible change if warming continues in a business-as-usual way throughout this century. The risk of transgressing critical thresholds (“tipping points”) increase strongly with ongoing climate change. Thus waiting for higher levels of scientific certainty could mean that some tipping points will be crossed before they are recognized.

The turning point must come soon: If global warming is to be limited to a maximum of 2oC above pre-industrial values, global emissions need to peak between 2015 and 2020 and then decline rapidly. To stabilize climate, a decarbonized global society – with near-zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases – need to be reached well within this century. More specifically, the average annual per-capita emissions will have to shrink to well under 1 metric ton CO2 by 2050. This is 80-90% below the per-capita emissions in developed nations in 2000.

http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.org/executive_summary.html

Denial is always easier than accepting unpalatable facts. Look how the Shoah was denied for years because people could not accept that a civilised cultured nation like Germany could indulge in genocide.

This time the stakes are far higher.

Full Copenhagen Diagnosis available for download at http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.org/download/default.html

Comrade Stalin
 
Werbung:
The recently released Copenhagen Diagnosis, an update from IPCC from the last full report displays a sobering picture of where we are going.

"...Surging greenhouse gas emissions: Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in 2008 were nearly 40% higher than those in 1990. Even if global emission rates are stabilized at present –day levels, just 20 more years of emissions would give a 25% probability that warming exceeds 2oC. Even with zero emissions after 2030. Every year of delayed action increase the chances of exceeding 2oC warming.

Recent global temperatures demonstrate human-based warming: Over the past 25 years temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.190C per decade, in every good agreement with predictions based on greenhouse gas increases. Even over the past ten years, despite a decrease in solar forcing, the trend continues to be one of warming. Natural, short- term fluctuations are occurring as usual but there have been no significant changes in the underlying warming trend.

Acceleration of melting of ice-sheets, glaciers and ice-caps: A wide array of satellite and ice measurements now demonstrate beyond doubt that both the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets are losing mass at an increasing rate. Melting of glaciers and ice-caps in other parts of the world has also accelerated since 1990.

Rapid Arctic sea-ice decline: Summer-time melting of Arctic sea-ice has accelerated far beyond the expectations of climate models. This area of sea-ice melt during 2007-2009 was about 40% greater than the average prediction from IPCC AR4 climate models.

Current sea-level rise underestimates: Satellites show great global average sea-level rise (3.4 mm/yr over the past 15 years) to be 80% above past IPCC predictions. This acceleration in sea-level rise is consistent with a doubling in contribution from melting of glaciers, ice caps and the Greenland and West-Antarctic ice-sheets.

Sea-level prediction revised: By 2100, global sea-level is likely to rise at least twice as much as projected by Working Group 1 of the IPCC AR4, for unmitigated emissions it may well exceed 1 meter. The upper limit has been estimated as – 2 meters sea-level rise by 2100. Sea-level will continue to rise for centuries after global temperature have been stabilized and several meters of sea level rise must be expected over the next few centuries.

Delay in action risks irreversible damage: Several vulnerable elements in the climate system (e.g. continental ice-sheets. Amazon rainforest, West African monsoon and others) could be pushed towards abrupt or irreversible change if warming continues in a business-as-usual way throughout this century. The risk of transgressing critical thresholds (“tipping points”) increase strongly with ongoing climate change. Thus waiting for higher levels of scientific certainty could mean that some tipping points will be crossed before they are recognized.

The turning point must come soon: If global warming is to be limited to a maximum of 2oC above pre-industrial values, global emissions need to peak between 2015 and 2020 and then decline rapidly. To stabilize climate, a decarbonized global society – with near-zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases – need to be reached well within this century. More specifically, the average annual per-capita emissions will have to shrink to well under 1 metric ton CO2 by 2050. This is 80-90% below the per-capita emissions in developed nations in 2000.

http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.org/executive_summary.html

Denial is always easier than accepting unpalatable facts. Look how the Shoah was denied for years because people could not accept that a civilised cultured nation like Germany could indulge in genocide.

This time the stakes are far higher.

Full Copenhagen Diagnosis available for download at http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.org/download/default.html

Comrade Stalin


This is an argument that we could have until the earth ends, but I would like to make three points:

  • There is a big difference between Surge Glaciers and other glaciers. All of the data I have seen supporting your point is on surge glaciers. The less aggressive moving glaciers have actually thickened substantially around the world.
  • If there is truly global warming then explain to me how in a 160 miles distance we have one city with the temperature going up (NYC), one staying the same (West Point), and one going down (Albany). This is over the last 100 years. There has been contrary data on rising seas. Different oceans have actually receded.
  • There final point is that even if you are correct, how will the Cap and Trade process fix this? It won't, it is all about money.
 
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