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I can agree with this assessment, which is exactly why I make such a huge deal about the credibility of United States security assurances.  If the US loses its credibility abroad, the entire international system breaks down in my opinion.  This is not good for anyone, and it is a big reason why I am so supportive of being involved everywhere and living up to our promises. 


I will ask an academic question here however.  Would it be rational for Israel to retaliate against an Iranian nuclear strike?  One would seem to say no.  What benefit really comes from it? 




I agree, it will never be proven if arms races cause or prevent wars.  Looking at deterrence however, I think the real question we should be addressing is not how can we maintain deterrence, but rather, what are our options if deterrence fails.


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