Greece and our markets

cashmcall

Well-Known Member
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Jan 23, 2012
Messages
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Most here know as well as I that the Frogs will spin an organized default as something other than a default. But the reality is it is a default so creditors may smile and put up a brave front while holding onto their wallets.

This will only buy some time for Greece because they have not implimented any austerity. It remains that 75% of Greeks work for the gov. The whole thing is a mess. This is just more shuffling the debt.

Under no circumstances will I unlock my hedges. The press run by a few hedges are trying to push markets higher on vapor. Earnings season, aside from a few standouts is going down and down guiding. No question Europe is entering a recession. Spain has 22% unemployment and Greece under austerity to undo the massive bloat of that gov will run unemployment to 30%. The USA unemployement is 10% according to the CBO. We are the biggest debtors along with Japan who is now officially in recession again with their trade deficit.

China thus far has been very careful and it holding back on spending. There is a real potential if China decides to slow it all down a bit which they should, then these debt ridden nations will snap into recession. The entire world is playing with fire. This is why bonds are not going down.

That is my present chief signal for any recovery. That bond money would have moved out of bonds; It hasn't budged in the face of all the cnbc euphoria. So while I am generally a bull, this trading range this time around is cooked. And election year or not, when it comes down, it will come down hard.

At the end of the day today I thought we were going to have a mini flash crash. Market slopped off a very fast 60 points in a short span. So anyone that thinks low volume rallies are safe, should have their heads examined.

I am hedged with a tilt to the downside and I am not budging.
 
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as is all the smart money.
fan is right here and spinning and the shovels are loaded and ready to toss.
Did you see The senate passes the Stock Trading ACT... Another liberal and rino scam. This

LIES LIES snd MORE LIES. This bill provides that as long as the single transaction is <$1000 then it doesn't even get reported. So pelosi could have her husband trade 100 small block trades each less than $1000 and they would never have to be reported even though he actually traded $100000 in say the futures with plenty of leverage.

What can't these idiots see. NO MEANS NO! The public is sick of this duplicity! These politicians are crooks that design laws to make it look like one thing when in fact, it prohibits nothing because it is designed around a giant loophole. Which basically says "It is illegal to trade on insider information unless you only trade in tiny invisible blocks that you don't need to even report... the law tells them how they can cheat and get away with it. Astonishing!"
 
Did you see The senate passes the Stock Trading ACT... Another liberal and rino scam. This

LIES LIES snd MORE LIES. This bill provides that as long as the single transaction is <$1000 then it doesn't even get reported. So pelosi could have her husband trade 100 small block trades each less than $1000 and they would never have to be reported even though he actually traded $100000 in say the futures with plenty of leverage.

What can't these idiots see. NO MEANS NO! The public is sick of this duplicity! These politicians are crooks that design laws to make it look like one thing when in fact, it prohibits nothing because it is designed around a giant loophole. Which basically says "It is illegal to trade on insider information unless you only trade in tiny invisible blocks that you don't need to even report... the law tells them how they can cheat and get away with it. Astonishing!"


SAY WHAT ? pols crafting law that sounds nice and does nothing ? say it aint so !
if ordinary people did what Congress does in the securities world they would get locked up.
 
SAY WHAT ? pols crafting law that sounds nice and does nothing ? say it aint so !
if ordinary people did what Congress does in the securities world they would get locked up.
I've got another one for ya..did you know that hedge funds are going to buy foreclosed properties from the gov at huge discounts. No doubt the fed will give them zero interest to do it. Another sambo rip off of the tax payers to benefit hedge fund welfare.

I am surprised at how difficult they have made the process for individual investors and how, easy they are going to make it for hedge funds. The gov delayed the foreclosures and now the hedge funds are going to try to try to convert the nation into a nation of renters. They are doing the same thing with farm land. It is creating a whole new caste system.

The liberals voted for this numskull, and its amazing the awful world they are leaving for the next generation. They will own nothing, be able to accumulate nothing and their voice will be muffled in a sea of illegals with their hands stretched out for more welfare. Lovely new world owned and rented by hedge funds.

But with a little luck we will change that out come!!!!
 
I've got another one for ya..did you know that hedge funds are going to buy foreclosed properties from the gov at huge discounts. No doubt the fed will give them zero interest to do it. Another sambo rip off of the tax payers to benefit hedge fund welfare.

I am surprised at how difficult they have made the process for individual investors and how, easy they are going to make it for hedge funds. The gov delayed the foreclosures and now the hedge funds are going to try to try to convert the nation into a nation of renters. They are doing the same thing with farm land. It is creating a whole new caste system.

The liberals voted for this numskull, and its amazing the awful world they are leaving for the next generation. They will own nothing, be able to accumulate nothing and their voice will be muffled in a sea of illegals with their hands stretched out for more welfare. Lovely new world owned and rented by hedge funds.

But with a little luck we will change that out come!!!!


yes I was aware of that and we both know why they have granted favored status, SSDD
 
The markets hit another new high on vapors. Think about it...

1) phony jobs report failed to note seasonal trend
2) earnings are down and aside from some obama cheerleaders like DOw ceo guidance is flat to down
3) Europe is going into a recession Spain has 22% unemployment. and Greece still has 75% of population employed by gov.
4) debt ceiling up another trillion with no end in site
5) oil up and gas up near $4 and this is just Feb. Wait until June when it is over $5 gal.
6) Iran is anything but settled.
7) most hedges remain on the sidelines
8) extreme low volume
9) A lot of hedge fund news euphoria and talk of animal spirits to take on my risk
10) Europe... let the farce continue. There is no doubt that greece will default and the europeans are trying to calculate the fallout by trying to tie in a restructuring so that Greece defaults but remains in the euro. But remember the rating agencies are not rolling over like the media for obama.
11) The US has made no progress whatsoever on deficits since the Downgrade.

I hate being bearish but, when hedges get too negative I call that the same way. Right now there is way too much euphoria for news which is anything but good. Don't get me wrong, My housing options have skyrocketed but I bought options when things were horrific because I thought the hedges were overplaying the news. So now I am looking for some cheap puts because quite frankly Gas at $4 is impossible for the US to negotiate. Actual unemployment is 10% and 30% of houses are underwater, 45% of families on food stamps. $4 gas is a destroyer.

The entire world is now living off gov floats. there is no indication that fiscal restraint is taking place. This is bipolar obama at his spendaholic cycle. Bipolars do this and it always ends in a recession.

Every time they give the GDP as rising... Look at the float. This isn't real GDP it is GDP from the float. its fake. I urge extreme caution in these markets. Low volumes make the markets excessively unstable. Without hedge funds in the markets there is no buffer to the downside.

Once again I am delighted that my housing futures are nearing 500% but its not because they are making any money in a market where prices are being squeezed. This is not even Fed float. This is a pre-float float rally anticipating QE III. We are swimming in a sea of liquidity that isn't being loaned to small business or mortgages but is ending up pushing up oil and speculative equities. And here is bernanke trying to fill up a full cup of coffee with another pot of coffee... So far its just a threat but bernanke is believing his own press now and thinks QE to infinity is bolstering the jobs market. That jobs number was seasonally adjusted there are still as evidenced yesterday nearly 400K layoffs. This is obama spin and nothing else. The real danger here is this is the Tepper trade again... it is on anticipation of another sugar fix but no sugar yet in a low volume market.

I would not be surprised it Greece defaults this weekend. If they do expect markets to crumble massively. There are no shorts without the hedges to act as a buffer. Hedges got destroyed playing the candy stock market and they are reluctant to do anything.
 
Wall Street is just trying to make some money while they can before it hits the fan and better position themselves for the collapse. life does go on...
 
Well we have now seen the superbowl commericals from the two welfare care companies that are tauting their ability to navigate through the recession... with Clint Eastwood spokesman in one case. There was no mention however of the 110 billion bailout. I guess welfare is one way to navigate stupidity. When you foul up just stick your hands out and get a bailout.
What they aren't telling you about the car sales is a big amount of the ordering is by the US gov. Apparently Homeland security will need a couple of hundred thousand cars so their employees can drive around terrorizing Americans.

Then of course there is the gas cost. No problem, the gov pays for the gas to run these cars. The good part is the employees can use the cars for personal use. Its a perk.

We keep getting the euphoria over the jobs report. Never do they mention the seasonal adjustment, nor do they mention the new filing claims of nearly 360,000 a month. Somehow this is supposed to trigger a huge euphoria.

We hear that CAT is building more production in the USA. Of course it is moving out of union states which is goo and instantly competitive. They keep talking about exports. But once again, while CAT is doing well, our balance of trade was way down because our imports far exceeded exports. So if you listen to obama, the US is exporting like we're Asian. Its not happening.

Then we have Cramer who got wild and ranted that things were getting better. Where? Gas is slowing the consumer down. House prices are dropping and the foreclosure mess is going to have hedge funds buying property and trying to convert it into rentals. Why? becasue the deterioration of property due to people living in homes and not paying rent has become a huge issus. Why do you think some people are buying new homes? The hedge fund scheme won't work.

Then there is the debt. Heading to 16 trillion with blinding speed. There is the Fed pumping up the ECB. Its all float. We have never had debt this high. And it has become tautology that you can borrow and spend your way out of recession and inflate your way out. Zero interest means your savings are worth nothing absolutely nothing. Good behavior is being punished and spending and euphoria are rewarded.

Enjoy your euphoria because reality is that the economy is digging itself a deeper hole. Real unemployment is 10% min. There is no equity in the real estate market. It hangs by a thread and prices are going lower. Gas is moving to $4 rapidly and the consumer is exhausted. Gov bloat is at an all time high. To support this we are running at 1.5 trillion on the credit card each year.

Bernanke has already put in his disclaimer. He has declared that the rising deficits are dangerous. But with all the euphoria and zero interest, who has time to listen. This is Bernanke's out. So the fact that his float isn't succeding its the politicians float that will sink the nation.

But don't worry, you will have lot of go employees just like greece to stand around with thier hands out. Enjoy your euphoria.
 
What has happened is that there is a tsunami of foreclosures and a vast wreckage of deteriorated unoccupied houses in bad bad shape. The values just disintegrate yet the taxing authorities in order to keep feeding the happy gov bloat don't come down. So you find a property with an inflated land price and an uninhabitable house assessed at full mark to market from 2006. So its not just the house that is destroyed, it is the gov that is also reaming the taxpayer with property taxes.

In FL vast numbers of people no longer pay mortgages. The average non-payer has been in their home for the last 3 three years with no payments. Sambo's delay tactics allowed this and so did IRS discharge of indebtedness waiver. That ends by the way in 2012 so there is going to be an exodus from this garbage housing en mass.

Shiller thinks housing drops 10%. I don't think they are even close. The potential exists for a 20% or 25% nosedive. Unless property taxes are dropped with the market, then tax inflation becomes a huge cost of ownership. Gov has continued to bloat through sambo's reign of terror, and there is no end in sight.

Take for example a 100K house very modest. The tax on such a house would be roughly $2400 a year or $200 a month above the cost of the house. So this expense if calucated to present value is huge. It is 2.4% added to your mortgage. So if you have a mortgage and pay 5% that equates to 7.4% on your 100K note of which tax is roughly 30%!!!!!

There is nothing safe that pays 7.4% interest! So you get reamed. And if you paid cash for your home, you still have to pay 2.4% interest in the form of tax and still there is no safe investment that will pay that interest. Since the Bernanke idea is to inflate at 2% a year, add that to your housing cost and if you have a mortgage then you move up to 9.4% with a mortgage and 4.4% without a mortgage.

How are you going to make up for this loss? Appreciation? Think again. With the massive flood of foreclosures, that potential will be piledriven to a loss of between 10 and 25%.

This is all brought to you by gov. intervention from Obama and the massive bloat of gov, local and federal. In Florida 3 our of 4 workers are gov bloaters and the homeowner is the captive tax payer with no escape.

Why will there be another recession? Because the recession never ended. The bernanke float and gov deficit spending has masked the real GDP by gov float. The GDP is a measure of goods and services as measured indirectly by the exchange of money. Thus completely unproductive exchanges like mortgage refi become part of the GDP even though there is no real activity here. Deficits account for more than half of the gov budgets now. So GDP can only be half what it claims. So if it is 2% then real GDP is 1%.

Then there is double counted activity such as the Gov buying cars from Clint Eastwood and Obama's car companies... Those dollars first spent by gov appear to be real. But the activity is mere dilution into the money supply. So the diluted money pays the car company who claims sales are up. But the sale is not a productive one it is in fact a negative sale. In simple terms suppose the US money supply was 1000 dollars. The gov prints 1000 dollars more and spends it all. The dollar is now worth half. So the car sale done like this would sell to the gov for half price. The car company would at first think it made a profit but it lost half. As the money trickled down inflation, and paid workers, their buying power would be sliced in half. So all of the economic activity from the printed money, reduces the GDP by half and makes the company insolvent and since the gov spent the first printed money, it spent like real money but as it trickled down, it got less valuable so this gets projected into the future. Some call it inflation but it is far worse than inflation because it falsifies the GDP
 
I would remind the euphorics that this market remains thinly traded and cash starved. The idea here is that of the tepper trade. Amongst the euphoria of the Greek deal... onceagain the scammed willingness to submit to austerity but never actually following through is the history of Greece. The protests are against austerity measures to be introduced not austerity itself. 75% of the population is still employed by the gov. So Greece hasn't moved a centimeter in the direction of austerity or removing gov. bloat. Talk as the German's say is cheap.

So what is the euphoria, over Greece, over Japan's new recession, China's renegotiation of all its materials contracts, peace in the middle east, oil over 100? The prospect of more obama? How about the scam mortgage settlement of 25 billion, a paltry sum. Name your euphoria.

One think you might want to observe is that bonds were not selling off today. They were being bought in the face of all this euphoria. Why was that? One would assume bonds would sell off due to the heightened risk appetite especially after buffett declared bonds to be "the most dangerous investment" presently.

I would like to think that paulsen is about to get two new black eyes. He is most certainly pushing the euphoria as he tries to lever himself back to water level.

Todays end of day market sell off was shorts planting.

So markets remain dangerous and with bernanke threatening more float its hard to tell if the junkie just wants another fix or is actually coming out of cold turkey. My guess is that he just wants another fix.

The debt is once again being ignored. Sambo keeps wanting to go after shareholders by raising dividend taxes for people he calls "the rich"

Between his destruction of the real estate markets now a massive ghetto, and his class warfare and death of small business, it is more obvious each and every day; he is wrecking the country along with the pusher bernanke.

You have to known that the boldness of the ECB is because the Federal Reserve is funding them and not telling the American People. This is dangerous stuff.
 
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Maybe Moody's out to just downgrade the USA again since the debt has soared nearly two trillion since the last downgrade and ZERO deficit reduction has taken place.

BTW, I don't think there is much buying on margin presently. This is extreme low volume manipulation so there is no trend here other than bullsiht vapors. The few hedge funds that are pushing this market euphoria like paulsen, are already deeply in trouble on stocks and are trying to get cash to enter the markets.

The bulk of the move from October lows to now took place in the second week of Dec and January. Feb has proven far more elusive. Several weeks ago bonds were selling off but that has reversed so there really isn't much cash coming into the market.

While the USA is willing to pile up the debt and print more money, the Germans who will ultimately have to pay for Greece are ready to kick them out. If they do, markets will unravel and there will be a major crash. There are no short in the market as attested by the vix. Most hedge funds are waiting on the sidelines. If this were really the beginning of a long bull trend, that trend would establish itself and would cause a very large and unmistakable trend.

But there is no trend. And I believe SteveZ1 has been about the only one on the board noting the cash vacuum in the market. Without more cash, the capacity for the markets to charge ahead is impossible. And if a few stocks charge ahead, like Apple, it will only send a false signal to the indexes.

And depending on how many silly TAs are trading the market, there is in fact a double shoulder formation. This can go into a triple shoulder or the markets can crash. So far the past patters have been double shoulder then crash. So the wager is whether it gets prolonged to a triple shoulder then collapses.

Either way I don't put much stock into that TA stuff but if enough people believe it, then it could self-fulfill.

I am a student of volume and market fear. Without a large volume of trades and in particular without the biggest hedge funds trading, there is little money in the short side. Every great crash in history had no short sided cushion. So I think there must be a suspicion that a crash could occur.

The major instability has become the fed and the federal debt not corporation debt or even personal debt thought the housing industry and another attack on the 401Ks will be devastating.

The simple fact is the recover has been juiced like no other in history. This was supposed to have gunned up the US economy but it hasn't worked. And now the Fed is scared and desperate. I believe that bernanke thinks the recovery lag has been a result of europe but he's clearly wrong. The German economy has shown incredible strength without QE juicing while we have continued to spin our wheels in the mud flats.

In deference to Maynard Keynes, his model of gov juicing was quite reasonable. It simple said that in good times the gov should shrink an the private sector expand, in recession, the gov spending should be increased to cushion the private sector recession.

But the politicians had much different ideas and grossly expanded the gov sector during the good times and contracted the private sector. Bush expanded gov by 30% and Obama as expanded it again by another 33%. Wages in the private sector have continued to fall.

It is completely unfair to call what bernanke has done as Keynesian. Its most definitely not. And the results speak for themselves. The weight of the private sector just as in greece is sinking the US. Thus, the German approach as been much better to reduce the weight of the gov expansion which indirectly expands the private sector by reducing the overhead.

This is brave new world time. We are now testing the effect of unlimited float expanding gov to a size which is suffocating the private sector.

So don't disgrace Maynard Keynes, who was a brilliant economist with the politician's adulterated interpretation.

I urge extreme caution in low volume markets were there appears to be few shorting hedge positions. This is a recipe for a crash of monstrous proportions.


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