Stalin
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Apr 4, 2008
- Messages
- 3,747
As satisfying as Mr. Nasrallah’s assassination may feel to those seeking Hezbollah’s destruction, his death is unlikely to paralyze the group for long. Israel killed Mr. Nasrallah’s predecessor, Abbas al-Musawi, in 1992, and senior commander, Imad Mughniyeh, in 2008. Hezbollah not only survived but grew in strength. It’s hard to see why this time would be different. Mr. Nasrallah’s second in command, Hashem Safieddine, a cleric and a cousin of the deceased leader who shared his worldview, might already have stepped in as the new de facto head of the organization.
What Israel has repeatedly underestimated is Hezbollah’s asabiyya, or social solidarity, its political will and its resilience. Hezbollah is a deeply institutionalized organization that is embedded in the social and political fabric of Lebanon. It has set up a vast welfare system that provides food and services to communities across Lebanon. It has 13 elected lawmakers in Parliament and powerful allies in the country’s security forces. Its Shia-dominant ideology is also steeped in an ethos of victimhood, sacrifice and martyrdom, insulating it against loss and demoralization. Since Hezbollah’s establishment in the early 1980s, the group has weathered the loss of not only its highest leaders but also thousands of combatants.
As the United States learned in both Afghanistan and Iraq, defeating a committed insurgency or resistance movement is almost impossible. As a nonstate paramilitary organization, Hezbollah can continue to use asymmetrical warfare to its own advantage, waging a sustained guerrilla campaign that prevents Israel from returning residents of the north safely to their homes.
If Israel is under the illusion it can weaken Hezbollah as effectively as it has Hamas, it is wrong. Hezbollah is estimated to have up to 50,000 armed combatants
comrade stalin
beirut
What Israel has repeatedly underestimated is Hezbollah’s asabiyya, or social solidarity, its political will and its resilience. Hezbollah is a deeply institutionalized organization that is embedded in the social and political fabric of Lebanon. It has set up a vast welfare system that provides food and services to communities across Lebanon. It has 13 elected lawmakers in Parliament and powerful allies in the country’s security forces. Its Shia-dominant ideology is also steeped in an ethos of victimhood, sacrifice and martyrdom, insulating it against loss and demoralization. Since Hezbollah’s establishment in the early 1980s, the group has weathered the loss of not only its highest leaders but also thousands of combatants.
As the United States learned in both Afghanistan and Iraq, defeating a committed insurgency or resistance movement is almost impossible. As a nonstate paramilitary organization, Hezbollah can continue to use asymmetrical warfare to its own advantage, waging a sustained guerrilla campaign that prevents Israel from returning residents of the north safely to their homes.
If Israel is under the illusion it can weaken Hezbollah as effectively as it has Hamas, it is wrong. Hezbollah is estimated to have up to 50,000 armed combatants
comrade stalin
beirut
