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One of my profs stated it best. "I can think of a hundred reasons why a numerical model will be wrong, and I can't think of one why it'd be right." He wasn't kidding. The basic set of equations can't be solved, so we have to approximate based on parameterizations and other simplifying assumptions. It's even worse for climate models. Is the climate changing? No doubt. Because of all the various feedback relationships in the climate system, consistency is the only outcome that is unlikely. What is stable is oscillations around climate averages--some of which are very long term. Does humanity affect the climate? Possibly. Who the heck really knows. But the path of the true scientist is to inquire and experiment. Which in the case of climate requires we use computer models. And I can't think of one reason why those would be right. If it sounds like an infinite "do loop," that's because it is....H
One of my profs stated it best. "I can think of a hundred reasons why a numerical model will be wrong, and I can't think of one why it'd be right." He wasn't kidding. The basic set of equations can't be solved, so we have to approximate based on parameterizations and other simplifying assumptions. It's even worse for climate models. Is the climate changing? No doubt. Because of all the various feedback relationships in the climate system, consistency is the only outcome that is unlikely. What is stable is oscillations around climate averages--some of which are very long term. Does humanity affect the climate? Possibly. Who the heck really knows. But the path of the true scientist is to inquire and experiment. Which in the case of climate requires we use computer models. And I can't think of one reason why those would be right. If it sounds like an infinite "do loop," that's because it is....
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