Obama depression... are you insane!!! The guys only been in office for like 120 days goofball.
GEORGE W. BUSH and his REPUBLICANTS with their total lock on the Executive & both Houses of Congress for his first 6 years in office broke it in the first place... so we're all doomed. America is done. Might as well give up because asur hates President Obama... not!
Did we hit bottom yet?
By Daniel Massey
For months after Wall Street's collapse last fall, client orders at the New York offices of staffing agency Robert Half International dried up, while inquiries from job seekers skyrocketed. After the new year, the dynamic slowly started to reverse: Fewer hopefuls walked through the company's doors, but clients quietly started hiring again.
“We've seen the shoots starting to sprout up here and there,” says Dawn Fay, the firm's district president.
Even as the city is battered by rising unemployment, steep cuts in consumer and corporate spending, plummeting condo prices and a record drop in office rents, the first glimmers of hope that the economic free fall could be nearing an end are emerging. Based on surveys that track consumer and business confidence and reports from real estate and retail experts, signs of renewal appear to be poking through the city's recession-impacted soil.
“I do think we are probably near the bottom,” Mayor Michael Bloomberg said last week. “I don't know that the economy is going straight up from here, but I am getting more optimistic every day.”
While some wrote off the mayor's comments as election-year pie-in-the-sky talk, there are indications that the intensity of the downturn is beginning to ease up. Nationally, credit markets have shown signs of thawing, dismal retail and auto sales have picked up slightly, and stocks have surged. Mortgage rates have hit an all-time low, and home sales have begun to stabilize.
In the city, economists are looking to activity at staffing agencies like Ms. Fay's as a leading indicator of whether the recession has hit bottom, because companies will often hire temporary workers when they sense that recovery is near. At Ajilon Professional Staffing, Regional Vice President Andrew Ernst has also seen a change in recent weeks.
“Companies are coming to us—not a substantial number, but it definitely has turned,” he says.
A key component of any potential turnaround is the city's consumer confidence level, which rose 7.2 points in the first quarter of the year, to 63.4, according to a Siena Research Institute survey. That lifts consumer confidence back to where it was in the first quarter of 2008. Future confidence jumped a hefty 9 points, to 68.1.
“Consumers have taken a deep breath and stepped back from the economic cliff,” observes Douglas Lonnstrom, SRI's founding director.
New Yorkers are moving beyond the shock of last fall's dismal economic news, and optimism about President Barack Obama's stimulus plan has driven a belief that conditions are going to improve, Mr. Lonnstrom says. But it will take time for full confidence to return. “It's good that we're up, but these are still real bad numbers,” Mr. Lonnstrom says.
A new report by the National Association of Purchasing Management-New York is also a good sign. Although business activity in the city in March fell for the 14th straight month, the rate of decline slowed. And, the six-month outlook increased a record 33 points, to 64.8, the highest level since May 2008. Figures above 50 indicate growth.
Indeed, the economy may be beginning to pick itself up off the scrap heap—literally.
Kevin Gershowitz, who owns six recycling yards in the New York area, says business began collapsing in August, but started to stabilize in mid-January when junk cars, old stoves and scrap from home improvements started to trickle in. His yards are still operating at only 60% to 70% of their typical volume, but that's better than the 50% of a few months ago.
Touchdown
“We've finally landed,” Mr. Gershowitz says. “It might be on Mars, but at least we've landed.”
Brokers and owners of real estate also say the landscape is starting to shift.
“Up until six weeks ago, there was a lot of kicking of the tires,” says Stephen Tarter, co-owner of retail leasing agent Tarter/Stats Realty. “Now, a lot of deals are being made.”
In one, a property owner chose Pret A Manger as a tenant from a group of eight serious contenders. Mr. Tarter says the increased activity is a sign that retailers think the economy will pick up in six to eight months—about the time it takes to acquire and build out space.
There's even a glimmer of hope in an otherwise-dismal residential market, says Miller Samuel President Jonathan Miller. In the past few weeks, he's noticed an uptick in the number of signed contracts. Pent-up demand and improved liquidity in the market for conventional mortgages has driven the upswing. It's being fueled largely by first-time home buyers, who can buy without having to sell first.
“I've seen enough transactions to get a sense that things are better than we thought they would be going into the spring,” Mr. Miller says.
Avoiding the worst
Even on the employment front, some economists are guardedly optimistic that lower-than-expected cuts thus far might mean that the city will be able to steer clear of the direst of job-loss forecasts.
“At least the forecasts have bottomed out,” says Frank Braconi, chief economist in the Office of the New York City Comptroller. “That's a good sign in and of itself.”
And personally I invest in Mutual Fund stocks with a good long term track record regardless if the market is up or down. It's a long term investment... that's what smart investors do.
