GenSeneca, you write there’s no causal argument being made when stating “the simple fact that: Imports are highest during booms and lowest during recessions”.
I make the assumption that by describing the pairs of occurrences as a “fact” and your use of the words “highest” and “lowest” you are implying a cause and effect between the change of the nation’s total GDP and the change of the nation’s global trade balance.
If you're not implying such a cause and effect, why not simply deny that you’re making such an implication? If that’s the case we’re in agreement that although a nation’s trade imbalance affects its GDP, the changes of that balance does not itself determine if the GDP will increase or decrease.
Within message #16 I logically argue that trade surpluses ALWAYS contribute and trade deficits ALWAYS decrease their nations’ GDPs more than otherwise. I further provide logical reason to believe (due to our inability to identify production not reflected within a nation's globally traded products), trade imbalances affects upon their nations' GDPs are generally understated.
There are truths that are thus far beyond anyone’s ability to quantify, some have been quantified but their quantification is understood by the very few, some are quantified and understood many more (but not all) persons.
I have difficulty obtaining GDPs published by what I believe to be authoritative sources. It should be of no surprise that I’m unable to create those GDPs and I’m unaware of anyone who can quantify their understatement.
I suppose you’re aware of some truths that are beyond your ability to quantify.
Respectfully, Supposn
