The second Trump presidency was always going to end in disaster. Now it’s happening.

Stalin

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Concern is justifiably growing that a cornered Donald Trump will send US ground troops into combat on Iranian soil to avoid being personally and politically humiliated in a war he started, mismanaged and cannot end. Yet such a self-serving escalation, even if ostensibly limited in duration and scope, could itself prove catastrophic for him and the American people. Think what happened in previous US military interventions. In sum, he’s caught in a modern-day catch-22. Pick your own metaphor for dumb. Trump’s stumped, hoist by his own petard, stuck between a rock and a hard place, and up the creek without a paddle. The creek in question is, of course, the strait of Hormuz.

Firmly ensconced in his weird parallel universe, Trump insists the war is all but won, Iran is suing for peace and talks are making good progress. In the real world, Iran is still fighting on all fronts, Israel is still bombing, the strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, and the Iran-allied Houthi militia in Yemen has joined the war, attacking Israel and potentially blocking Red Sea trade routes. The US and Iran have each issued maximalist demands, but there is no sign of actual negotiations. They are even further apart than they were before Trump, egged on by Benjamin Netanyahu, abandoned diplomacy last month. Sometime soon, Trump will be forced to confront the huge gap between what he wants and what’s on offer. At that point he could turn to the troop buildup in the Gulf and order ground attacks.


How did it come to this? It’s incredible to think that after all the mortal agony and anguish of Iraq and Afghanistan, a US president is once again seriously contemplating boots on the ground in the Middle East. It’s even more amazing the president concerned is Trump, a noisy critic of costly foreign adventures. Yet this is no unlucky break, no accidental misfortune. It’s the result of deliberate policy. If the US is facing impossible choices, the responsibility is entirely Trump’s, though he will surely blame others. Pete Hegseth, the Pentagon’s troubled comic-book warlord, is in his gun-sights.

Ignoring facts on the ground, the White House continues to spew lies and bombast. Trump is plainly in denial, claiming regime change has already been achieved via assassination. He has this strange habit of behaving like a spectator, detached from the chaotic events he himself sets in motion. He acts as if the global energy shock, the US’s abject failure to defend the Hormuz strait and its Gulf allies, Iran’s unyielding defiance under fire, and the absence of the predicted popular uprising in Tehran have nothing to do with him. He doesn’t understand Iran is fighting an asymmetric war, that even the biggest bombs cannot obliterate pride and ideology, faith and history.


comrade stalin
moscow
 
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