The guy who wrote the 2007 NIE (headed the team anyway) used the Iranian definition of a weapons program to write up the findings. Basically it could have simply gone "Iranian said they don't have them, so they don't have them."
That same NIE also states "We judge with moderate confidence that the earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of producing enough HEU for a weapon is late 2009."
And also, "We also assess with high confidence that since fall 2003, Iran has been conducting research and development projects with commercial and conventional military applications—some of which would also be of limited use for nuclear weapons."
"In our judgment, only an Iranian political decision to abandon a nuclear weapons objective would plausibly keep Iran from eventually producing nuclear weapons—and such a decision is inherently reversible."
"We assess with high confidence that Iran has the scientific, technical and industrial capacity eventually to produce nuclear weapons if it decides to do so."
Anyway, I think it is worth wondering aloud why Iran would have stopped their program (as this alleges) in 2003? North Korea is rumored to have halted as well in 2003 for a brief time, and Libya gave its up. If anything, the Iraq war got a lot of these nations worried about their programs.
