What about oil ? A post I made on raging bull

[nobull]

I am of the opinion that if oil doesn't collapse to about 96 the global economy will crumble. For much of the rise of oil the price was ignored by the public up until last week's surge. Then the public has cut back driving to necessities around here and there is far less store activity and no large ticket sales. I agree with SteveZ1 this is a sort of parabolic flame off. I also regard Goldman's statement as a warning... sort of code to hedges that Goldman will be shorting the market.

Besides that, long markets are no longer responding well. They are low volume and weak. Rallies are met with hedge selling and small investor bailing. I think that is irrational but the point is that oil is affecting the markets and political policy is a disaster under obama. He is back to tax the rich themes so I suggest that all of these negative features have been ignored in the recent past but that has all changed now.

As for Gold and silver, I view these as speculations by dare I say it the nuts and unsophisticated investors who are chasing the nutty dollar. The fact that as I have said cab drivers and hairdressers are not talking up commodities and buying more strikes me as stupid money moving in mass.

I am relatively stoic when it comes to my big caps. When they go down the interest yield goes up and in secular bears, I have already moved into long term high div yield plays and been their in some cases for years.

Unlike cramer who says ignore taxes, I cannot see being taxed at income levels in my bracket. It simply destroyes the value of my trade. Besides having moved into large cap big div plays, I have the added advantage of reduction of income to 15% taxable status.

While I do believe that many small young investors don't invest but simply gamble, I believe that the more conservative money stuffed into bonds will tend to leave bonds and go into high cap yields NOT COMMODITY plays. My shorting of bonds has been well rewarded over time.

My oil short looks good to me. It is in the green. My silver short is slightly underwater but I gauge the difference by the amount of stupid v. smart money in at the parabolic flare.

My portfolio in total is conservative and defensive. One thing I am am certain of is that if oil doesn't make a hasty retreat we may double dip. I attribute these parabolic flares to margins, liquidity and ETFs. I think stupid money is tied up in gold, silver, oil and bonds. And that money divides down as stupid money in silver, gold and hedge money in oil, and scared money in bonds.

If you think about gold and silver... 99% of the trades are paper trades in an unregulated space. The people that buy some coins they don't really know the value of them but if you are collecting coins then you aren't worth much. Besides gold and silver do not make money apart from intrinsic appreciation so nobody can value them.

Oil on the other hand is very useful and valuable but it is not demand driven or supply driven. It is speculative hedge money on the order of 60 billion dollars. When the hedges let loose, blood pours into the street. Hedges are holding the global recovery hostage but they are not smart enough to know when to let go. Goldman is smart enough and they have said their peace.

With oil I will continue to short and increase my short over time. I am absolutely certain that high oil will destroy the economy. Many economies in the US operate at the retail vacation level. Florida winter trade was terrible and I think this will be the summer of scaled back vacations. As I have said, I am seeing the consumer starting to hold back significantly. Imports were way off in the last quarter meaning the consumer is fatigued. The American citizen is suffering also from Obama burnout. Republicans aren't helping with their list of rino retreads signing up for the republican nomination. Romney is particularly distressing to most republicans.

Of my short investments, Bonds are perfect. I am deep in the money and scared money isn't stupid money so they will slowly sell off. Also I like this because of Japan and the resistance to QEIII.

Oil is the economy killer. Every recession in history has been preceded by speculative high oil prices. So they can't last.

As for my stupid money shorts... as you can see from my discussions with the precious metal bugs, they are not even rational. So I would expect shorting gold or silver to be highly unpredictable. But it is an avalanche if you can catch them right. I think I am near a parabolic flare. Look at the video of the silver trader that I posted yesterday. Look at the sports jacket and the earring. These guys happen along with every recession. I will remark that this has been a very very long run for gold and silver but I attribute that to war policies under both bush and obama. Bush was a disaster for the economy and Obama even more toxic so I do not blame stupid money for trying to find something they think is stable in a political environment like this; my point is that the things they have gone into traditionally have been the roach motel type of investment. Speculators go in but they don't come out.

regards
doug

 

[TruthSeeker]

"Stupid money" is paper money. When gold and silver become the monetary units of necessity, you will be left holding all of your paper and wondering what the hell happened to your paper "wealth". At least I'll know where to go if I need some really rough toilet paper.

As for 99% of gold and silver existing only on paper, that number is ridiculously high. I have a difficult time believing that 99% of all gold and silver investors are fools.

Anybody that "owns" paper gold and/or paper silver are only kidding themselves, in the same way that stock market manipulators and bond-holders are doing the same.

If you can't touch it, you don't own it. That simple little philosophy will bite most people in the ass in the near future.

 

[nobull]

"Stupid money" is paper money. When gold and silver become the monetary units of necessity, you will be left holding all of your paper and wondering what the hell happened to your paper "wealth". At least I'll know where to go if I need some really rough toilet paper.

As for 99% of gold and silver existing only on paper, that number is ridiculously high. I have a difficult time believing that 99% of all gold and silver investors are fools.

Anybody that "owns" paper gold and/or paper silver are only kidding themselves, in the same way that stock market manipulators and bond-holders are doing the same.

If you can't touch it, you don't own it. That simple little philosophy will bite most people in the ass in the near future.

Trust me my numbers are right...

 

[nobull]

"Stupid money" is paper money. When gold and silver become the monetary units of necessity, you will be left holding all of your paper and wondering what the hell happened to your paper "wealth". At least I'll know where to go if I need some really rough toilet paper.

As for 99% of gold and silver existing only on paper, that number is ridiculously high. I have a difficult time believing that 99% of all gold and silver investors are fools.

Anybody that "owns" paper gold and/or paper silver are only kidding themselves, in the same way that stock market manipulators and bond-holders are doing the same.

If you can't touch it, you don't own it. That simple little philosophy will bite most people in the ass in the near future.

Truth Seeker...the end of the world, economic or otherwise is not predicted or predictable. If it were there would not have been four animal extinction on the earth.

If the world fell into economic chaos then gold would be of little use other than making you a target for rogue gangs and warlords. Animals that survive do so by finding a way to be remote and invisible. The thought that you alone would be standing flush with a wheelbarrow full of gold and silver living high while everyone else starved to death willingly is fantasy.

The IQ test for the earth is how to fend off an asteroid or meteor. The Star wars defense system which the Russians don't like for some reason and liberals hate, may have been the fist step to passing the IQ test, otherwise man would have to leave the planet... under current circumstances this would be sending a colony of diversity into space which once again would defeat the whole purpose of the IQ test.


While you envision people with gold living high in economic collapse, I envision then lying in a pool of their own blood following a gang attack. Enjoy your gold; there is nothing in this world that can't be taken away from you by gov or thugs.LOL

just sayin

doug

 

[Pidgey]

Enjoy your gold; there is nothing in this world that can't be taken away from you by gov thugs.LOL

Fixed that for ya'!

A lot of the price rise in oil is due to the currently falling Dollar Index (NYBOTX):

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&t=&a=&w=&v=dmax

 

[Pidgey]

...which, by the way, is due to The Fed essentially being the buyer of last resort for treasuries. Yeah, they're doing it rather stealthily through the Primary Dealers, but they're d@mn sure doing it. The current administration is literally taking The Little People to the cleaners without them even realizing it, destroying the poor and the middle class at the same time. That's one of the most perfect examples of killing two birds with one stone that you'll ever see in real life.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Truth Seeker...the end of the world, economic or otherwise is not predicted or predictable. If it were there would not have been four animal extinction on the earth.

Who said anything about "the end of the world". That's quite a leap you are taking, nobull. The end of the U.S. economy is not the end of the world, is it? Maybe for you it is, but for many of us, it is just the beginning.

If the world fell into economic chaos then gold would be of little use other than making you a target for rogue gangs and warlords. Animals that survive do so by finding a way to be remote and invisible. The thought that you alone would be standing flush with a wheelbarrow full of gold and silver living high while everyone else starved to death willingly is fantasy.

Nobull, you are confusing me. "If the world fell into economic chaos" and "gold would be of little use", then why would people who might have gold be "a target for rogue gangs and warlords"? It would seem to me that people who have food and water and fuel and shelter and firearms would be the targets, wouldn't they? You are very narrow-minded and naive. That's probably why you will be standing flush with a wheelbarrow full of worthless paper money and clad coins and worthless stocks, wondering what the hell happened, while people like me and many others will be safe and secure, with plenty of food and water and the basic necessities to survive, and the ability and willingness to defend what is ours.

The IQ test for the earth is how to fend off an asteroid or meteor. The Star wars defense system which the Russians don't like for some reason and liberals hate, may have been the fist step to passing the IQ test, otherwise man would have to leave the planet... under current circumstances this would be sending a colony of diversity into space which once again would defeat the whole purpose of the IQ test.

While you envision people with gold living high in economic collapse, I envision then lying in a pool of their own blood following a gang attack. Enjoy your gold; there is nothing in this world that can't be taken away from you by gov or thugs.LOL

You are very mistaken, nobull. Your assumptions about what I "envision" are dead wrong. I envision the survival of those who have prepared for the coming economic armageddon. Food, water, fuel, safety, shelter, bartering, and then the establishment of a monetary system based on a hybrid gold/silver/platinum standard. The only people who will be "lying in a pool of their own blood" are people like you, who didn't bother to prepare for the inevitable.

You have no answers, you have no preparatory skills, and you only offer stock market and commodities information that most people in this forum really don't have much use for. You are part of the problem, not part of the solution. I would recommend that you stay in your own lane and do what you do best..... obtain your "wealth" by profiting on the suffering of others, and the greed of the market and commodities manipulators.

"Just sayin'".

 

[nobull]

Who said anything about "the end of the world". That's quite a leap you are taking, nobull. The end of the U.S. economy is not the end of the world, is it? Maybe for you it is, but for many of us, it is just the beginning.



Nobull, you are confusing me. "If the world fell into economic chaos" and "gold would be of little use", then why would people who might have gold be "a target for rogue gangs and warlords"? It would seem to me that people who have food and water and fuel and shelter and firearms would be the targets, wouldn't they? You are very narrow-minded and naive. That's probably why you will be standing flush with a wheelbarrow full of worthless paper money and clad coins and worthless stocks, wondering what the hell happened, while people like me and many others will be safe and secure, with plenty of food and water and the basic necessities to survive, and the ability and willingness to defend what is ours.



You are very mistaken, nobull. Your assumptions about what I "envision" are dead wrong. I envision the survival of those who have prepared for the coming economic armageddon. Food, water, fuel, safety, shelter, bartering, and then the establishment of a monetary system based on a hybrid gold/silver/platinum standard. The only people who will be "lying in a pool of their own blood" are people like you, who didn't bother to prepare for the inevitable.

You have no answers, you have no preparatory skills, and you only offer stock market and commodities information that most people in this forum really don't have much use for. You are part of the problem, not part of the solution. I would recommend that you stay in your own lane and do what you do best..... obtain your "wealth" by profiting on the suffering of others, and the greed of the market and commodities manipulators.

"Just sayin'".

As a fundamental investor, I see no value in gold and silver whatsoever. I would never buy it at nose bleed prices but I would short it. As for oil, there is zero shortages, zero increase in demand and a mere 2% reduction in supply and contract volumes reduced by 20%. So I say oil is breathing very thin air indeed. Gaddafi is not reason enough to have oil run up 6% in a month when Libyan production is less than 3% of the globe and Saudi has stated they will make up any shortfall but there has been no shortfall.

If you are heavy in gold, i'm sorry..and thats my warning here, but I will not insult you because you know very little of what you speak

It is also my opinion that the quality of the investors in present gold, oil and silver is very low. These remind me of the housing flipper where cab drivers an hairdressers were flipping properties and they all got nailed and they are all still driving cabs and cutting hair.

Here is food for thought about any commodity: I tried to explain intrinsic value to others here but they are just too caught up in the madness.

Gold is not a safe investment. A company with a strong balance sheet, moat, and trading at a discount to its intrinsic value can go down a lot in value without any deterioration in the business environment. Look at the drug stocks. This is because Mr. Market has its mood swings. You can buy lower and wait for your investment thesis to play out. However, if you buy gold at $1350 an ounce and it drops 50% there is no way to tell if it is trading above, at, or below its intrinsic value. That is why you will have no idea what do to if there is a sharp decline in gold prices. And if you look at the historic curves of gold, investors get hung especially those holding actual gold because they can't sell it to a pawn shop. Jut like the cab driver flipper that could not get out of his house. [we know how much a house is worth... the cost to replace it if it burns to the ground but land is intrinsic... nobody knows what it is worth and if you hit it in a decline, it is hard to unload as the real estate collapse has shown.]

Its intrinsic, it can't be depreciated; it doesn't make money or bare interest. It has no real value only intrinsic value only what some sucker will pay you for it. It doesn't produce any products or services of any kind. There is no measure of its true value.

Below is an excerpt from an interview with Buffett:

"What about gold? Is this a classic bubble or what?"

"Look," he says, with his usual confident laugh. "You could take all the gold that's ever been mined, and it would fill a cube 67 feet in each direction. For what that's worth at current gold prices, you could buy all -- not some -- all of the farmland in the United States. Plus, you could buy 10 Exxon Mobils, plus have $1 trillion of walking-around money. Or you could have a big cube of metal. Which would you take? Which is going to produce more value?"

If you can't understand Buffett's argument then you can't understand intrinsic value v. real value and you are just bullsihting with the house odds.

To people who believe in TA and I mean believe as in religion because that is what it is a religion that suspends reason in favor of graph shapes, the position of the moon whatever. But don't tell me you are better than Buffett or any other great fundamental investor.

There is not one TA who has ever amassed the fortunes of the fundamental value investors.

My shorts in silver and oil are pure speculations based on my gut feeling that the news story of the gov shutdown would resolve favorably. In fact I didn't short until I heard they were close to a deal and off by just $300 mil which is chump change by gov standards. So that was my guess. It is not fundamental investing, it is just pure gambling indian poker. But you on the other hand try to justify gambling and indian poker with gold. You need your head examined for that because no matter how you slice it... all you ever get in gambling stocks is house odds. They are carved into the universe and you can't changed them.

Hey, last year I told people I was buying a little more gold..my average today is around 860.00..but it is less than 6% of what I have invested..

Even with the reasoning I used about the gov shutdown getting resolved, my odds don't change... its still the same 33% chance I am right and 66% chance I am wrong. The only difference between your opposing bet is that if I win, the drop off curves are generally steeper than the take off curves... so the velocity of the curve, the integral of the curve makes my reward for the same risk, better than your reward for the same risk. So that is why I gamble to the short side when I gamble. which is rarely..

just sayin
doug

if you want to call me a no caring sob.. thats fine..but don't give others here the impression gold is a value..gold is a hedge on inflation nothing more!

 

[TruthSeeker]

You didn't read 10% of what I have written in here. I own ZERO gold, yet you keep using "gold fever" as your cornerstone to criticize those you believe aren't as clever and cunning as you are. I have talked many times in this forum about silver, and more silver, and more silver.

It was about two years ago that I spoke with several friends and relatives who I knew had the extra income, via pathetically low interest CDs or stagnant mutual funds or 401Ks that were going nowhere or money just sitting in their banks, and I managed to convince several of them to invest as much money as they could into silver, and NOT to invest in gold, as all the TV and radio talking heads were recommending. Why? Because it was obvious to me, after doing all of the research, that silver was going to at least DOUBLE in price well before gold would. At that time, silver was around $11.00 an ounce. Today, silver cracked $42.00 an ounce. Care to guess how many happy friends and relatives I have right now, "nobull"?

No matter how you cut it, that's a pretty "decent" return on investment, don't you think?

If you did your homework, and quit worrying about shorts and supply and demand, and stopped categorizing gold and silver as "commodities", you may begin to understand why China and India and Germany and Australia and numerous other countries, as well as millions of individuals, are buying all the gold and silver they can get their hands on, or they can afford to buy.

Brush up on your history. Ever heard of the gold standard? Are you aware that prior to 1965, the U.S. Mint produced dollars and half-dollars and quarters and dimes, and even half-dimes, that were 90% silver? Ever heard of silver certificates? Ever heard of St.Gauden's gold coins, and other various gold fractional coins? That's the way this country conducted business for a long, long time. This country didn't have fiat currency, and the U.S. government didn't have to pay a "Federal Reserve Bank" to buy U.S. currency at face value plus 10% interest.

You go right ahead and play with your paper promises and your internet wealth strategies. That is certainly your right.

If you weren't so self-consumed with your own perceived superiority, you would realize that gold and silver are not increasing in value because of some "bubble" or "manipulation" or because a bunch of "amateurs" and "house-flipper" wannabes are artificially driving the prices up.

You would understand that gold and silver are no longer "commodities". They are both tangible assets, and they both will be resurrected as the principle means of monetary exchange, when the U.S. dollar and most other world currencies come crashing down.

The U.S. stock market, and all stock markets around the world, are polluted with corruption. The commodities exchanges are cesspools teeming with manipulators, carpetbaggers, and bottom-feeders.

I hope they all come crashing down into a big pile of steaming rubble, and the multi-millionaires who made their millions on the backs of the working class all take turns swan-diving off the top floors of the nearest skyscrapers.

 

[nobull]

You didn't read 10% of what I have written in here. I own ZERO gold, yet you keep using "gold fever" as your cornerstone to criticize those you believe aren't as clever and cunning as you are. I have talked many times in this forum about silver, and more silver, and more silver.

It was about two years ago that I spoke with several friends and relatives who I knew had the extra income, via pathetically low interest CDs or stagnant mutual funds or 401Ks that were going nowhere or money just sitting in their banks, and I managed to convince several of them to invest as much money as they could into silver, and NOT to invest in gold, as all the TV and radio talking heads were recommending. Why? Because it was obvious to me, after doing all of the research, that silver was going to at least DOUBLE in price well before gold would. At that time, silver was around $11.00 an ounce. Today, silver cracked $42.00 an ounce. Care to guess how many happy friends and relatives I have right now, "nobull"?

No matter how you cut it, that's a pretty "decent" return on investment, don't you think?

If you did your homework, and quit worrying about shorts and supply and demand, and stopped categorizing gold and silver as "commodities", you may begin to understand why China and India and Germany and Australia and numerous other countries, as well as millions of individuals, are buying all the gold and silver they can get their hands on, or they can afford to buy.

Brush up on your history. Ever heard of the gold standard? Are you aware that prior to 1965, the U.S. Mint produced dollars and half-dollars and quarters and dimes, and even half-dimes, that were 90% silver? Ever heard of silver certificates? Ever heard of St.Gauden's gold coins, and other various gold fractional coins? That's the way this country conducted business for a long, long time. This country didn't have fiat currency, and the U.S. government didn't have to pay a "Federal Reserve Bank" to buy U.S. currency at face value plus 10% interest.

You go right ahead and play with your paper promises and your internet wealth strategies. That is certainly your right.

If you weren't so self-consumed with your own perceived superiority, you would realize that gold and silver are not increasing in value because of some "bubble" or "manipulation" or because a bunch of "amateurs" and "house-flipper" wannabes are artificially driving the prices up.

You would understand that gold and silver are no longer "commodities". They are both tangible assets, and they both will be resurrected as the principle means of monetary exchange, when the U.S. dollar and most other world currencies come crashing down.

The U.S. stock market, and all stock markets around the world, are polluted with corruption. The commodities exchanges are cesspools teeming with manipulators, carpetbaggers, and bottom-feeders.

I hope they all come crashing down into a big pile of steaming rubble, and the multi-millionaires who made their millions on the backs of the working class all take turns swan-diving off the top floors of the nearest skyscrapers.

truth..I am very happy your friends and family have done well..but that doesn't change the facts..2years ago gold wasn't 1350.00 and siver is at a 31 year high...but IMHO not for long..I will be putting my money where my mouth is..

doug
anyone who told you to be yourself could not have given you worse advice..

 

[TruthSeeker]

truth..I am very happy your friends and family have done well..but that doesn't change the facts..2years ago gold wasn't 1350.00 and siver is at a 31 year high...but IMHO not for long..I will be putting my money where my mouth is..

doug
anyone who told you to be yourself could not have given you worse advice..

I have already "put my money where my mouth is". Too bad you are too blinded by your own superiority complex to figure out what is happening now, and what the results will be.

Good luck, and just be yourself.