Will Russia invade Ukraine later this winter?

Walter

Administrator
Staff member
Joined
Dec 9, 2006
Messages
2,038
Location
Austria, in the heart of Europe

An analysis by Dmitri Alperovitch shows that there are various signals, that this time it's going to be serious:​


  • Build up of troops on Ukraines borders
  • Increased cyber intrusions
  • Diplomatic ultimatums with demands that they know, NATO cant fullfill. And making them public.
  • Rethoric signals, e.g. by Rudenko: "The matter is not about fear, the matter is that our neighbors, not only Ukraine, have reached a kind of a boiling point, which really forces us to take certain radical steps, at least, we say that we are prepared to think in a different way" Source: https://tass.com/politics/1378025
  • Talking about provocations by the US ("Russian Defence Minister Shoygu has said that an American PMC is preparing a provocation using chemical components in Donbas")

Reasons for the invasion:​

  • Fear of shifting powers between Kiev and Donbas separatists
  • Concern about NATO expansion
  • Coalition of pro western states near the border of Russia
  • Putins talk about a 4-5 minutes flight of a missile from Ukraine to Moscow (imagine Russian missiles in Cuba or Mexico!)
  • Timing - USA is distracted (Covid, China), Europe is dependant on Russian gas in the winter
If it happens, how will the US and Europe react?


Full read:
 
Werbung:
Back
Top