The Art of War...

[LittleGreenMan]

Xi Sun Tzu has sufficiently softened up the battlefield, having established that fighters, bombers, surveillance drones, small & large Naval vessels, et al can approach Taiwan airspace on a regular basis, night or day, and be deterred by defensive moves by ROC forces. The party of the first part makes a move, the party of the second part goes thru the motions, a predictable outcome occurs, and the norm is maintained. Until is isn’t.

Since the beginning of time military rivals have kept an eye on the enemy and watched the sure sign of an invasion: a massing of assets within striking range. The CCP has had the luxury of accomplishing this buildup at their leisure and feinting strikes every day while nobody pays attention(to my knowledge, -at least publically) to the fact that the entire operation is in accordance with Chinese strategy 2500+ years old. Xi is a lot of things bad, but being a BS-er is not one of them. The CCP has announced they want Taiwan; the Presidency of Taiwan is up for election January 13th. Xi needs an "October Surprise". The CCP has been running the economy on hot air for a long time and is out of breath. Every sort of economic lie can be passed off as current wisdom to True Believers until expansion stops. Refinancing can be had as long as one is operating on an upward curve. As soon as the curve flattens, so do prospects for a little more rope. There are millions of apartments that are partially built by Evergrande & others but won't be completed that were financed by selling them to buy the land and beginning construction, -sort of all over the place-, based upon an expanding economy raising the value of the apartments, on the come. This is as close to a Ponzi scheme as you can get, even in China. It could only work in China because they don't have GAAP accounting. Or official reporting principles of any kind.

The CCP needed housing in cities for the masses as 1/3 of the population moved from the countryside to cities to work in factories that earned foreign exchange. There being no pension system in China, the workers needed investments to do the magic of compounding with their savings. These two needs blended until the scheme ran out of new money. You can imagine the masses that now have a big goose egg for a pension are not pleased. There is simply not enough surplus wealth in China to run its economy. It absolutely needs foreign money to continue expanding. Worse than that, they need foreign money to avoid collapse. Exports are down and getting downer. That translates into unemployment. Collapsing real estate investments + catastrophic savings losses by the masses + shrinking foreign exchange + Increasing unemployment = reasons to blame Xi for everything & dump him. Xi needs a win, and he needs to keep the masses focused on something other than his & the economy's performance. War works.

Xi has softened the battlefield and needs a war to re-direct the masses attention off him as the incompetent and as the Savior of China instead. Taiwan is available and the EU, et al will not fart at him unless and until the US acts. Guess what El Stupido will do in a Chinese crisis? Nothing. He will drag his feet and consult with his bellybutton and keep the ball in the air until it's too late to act. He has already been an excellent buy for Xi, having muddled US foreign policy beyond anybody's guesstimations as what will happen in any event, foreign or domestic. Worse yet, Joe is in such a state that if proceedings were to start to replace him with what's-her-face that would only add to a delay in reaction times. God only knows what she would do, anyway. Send half the fleet to the Mediterranean to get them as far away from usefulness in the orient as possible; use-up our arsenal of materiel in Ukraine without giving them what they need to win; disenchant our military and expel exactly the kinds of patriots that can be counted upon in defending the US; deplete our oil reserves; sow discontent and divide the citizens into as many sub-groups as possible; and admit as many foreign saboteurs over the southern border as possible as quickly as possible so we can be tied into knots at exactly the time we would need to marshal our forces for a response.

The only one, single reason Xi doesn’t attack yet is he needs foreign exchange to keep on keepin’ on. If the US and EU stopped sending money to buy stuff, he’s cooked. His need for a war to keep the masses & competition for his chair as bay just might outweigh that need. If that is the case, the day after Christmas would be el numero una choice to catch us with our pants down. Football may not be the big TV audience day this year. I’d like to be wrong.

 

[pjmret]

Xi Sun Tzu has sufficiently softened up the battlefield, having established that fighters, bombers, surveillance drones, small & large Naval vessels, et al can approach Taiwan airspace on a regular basis, night or day, and be deterred by defensive moves by ROC forces. The party of the first part makes a move, the party of the second part goes thru the motions, a predictable outcome occurs, and the norm is maintained. Until is isn’t.

Since the beginning of time military rivals have kept an eye on the enemy and watched the sure sign of an invasion: a massing of assets within striking range. The CCP has had the luxury of accomplishing this buildup at their leisure and feinting strikes every day while nobody pays attention(to my knowledge, -at least publically) to the fact that the entire operation is in accordance with Chinese strategy 2500+ years old. Xi is a lot of things bad, but being a BS-er is not one of them. The CCP has announced they want Taiwan; the Presidency of Taiwan is up for election January 13th. Xi needs an "October Surprise". The CCP has been running the economy on hot air for a long time and is out of breath. Every sort of economic lie can be passed off as current wisdom to True Believers until expansion stops. Refinancing can be had as long as one is operating on an upward curve. As soon as the curve flattens, so do prospects for a little more rope. There are millions of apartments that are partially built by Evergrande & others but won't be completed that were financed by selling them to buy the land and beginning construction, -sort of all over the place-, based upon an expanding economy raising the value of the apartments, on the come. This is as close to a Ponzi scheme as you can get, even in China. It could only work in China because they don't have GAAP accounting. Or official reporting principles of any kind.

The CCP needed housing in cities for the masses as 1/3 of the population moved from the countryside to cities to work in factories that earned foreign exchange. There being no pension system in China, the workers needed investments to do the magic of compounding with their savings. These two needs blended until the scheme ran out of new money. You can imagine the masses that now have a big goose egg for a pension are not pleased. There is simply not enough surplus wealth in China to run its economy. It absolutely needs foreign money to continue expanding. Worse than that, they need foreign money to avoid collapse. Exports are down and getting downer. That translates into unemployment. Collapsing real estate investments + catastrophic savings losses by the masses + shrinking foreign exchange + Increasing unemployment = reasons to blame Xi for everything & dump him. Xi needs a win, and he needs to keep the masses focused on something other than his & the economy's performance. War works.

Xi has softened the battlefield and needs a war to re-direct the masses attention off him as the incompetent and as the Savior of China instead. Taiwan is available and the EU, et al will not fart at him unless and until the US acts. Guess what El Stupido will do in a Chinese crisis? Nothing. He will drag his feet and consult with his bellybutton and keep the ball in the air until it's too late to act. He has already been an excellent buy for Xi, having muddled US foreign policy beyond anybody's guesstimations as what will happen in any event, foreign or domestic. Worse yet, Joe is in such a state that if proceedings were to start to replace him with what's-her-face that would only add to a delay in reaction times. God only knows what she would do, anyway. Send half the fleet to the Mediterranean to get them as far away from usefulness in the orient as possible; use-up our arsenal of materiel in Ukraine without giving them what they need to win; disenchant our military and expel exactly the kinds of patriots that can be counted upon in defending the US; deplete our oil reserves; sow discontent and divide the citizens into as many sub-groups as possible; and admit as many foreign saboteurs over the southern border as possible as quickly as possible so we can be tied into knots at exactly the time we would need to marshal our forces for a response.

The only one, single reason Xi doesn’t attack yet is he needs foreign exchange to keep on keepin’ on. If the US and EU stopped sending money to buy stuff, he’s cooked. His need for a war to keep the masses & competition for his chair as bay just might outweigh that need. If that is the case, the day after Christmas would be el numero una choice to catch us with our pants down. Football may not be the big TV audience day this year. I’d like to be wrong.

Is the day after Christmas a big dy in taiwan?Taiwan? Will the Taiwan military be off guard that day?

 

[LittleGreenMan]

Is the day after Christmas a big dy in taiwan?Taiwan? Will the Taiwan military be off guard that day?

ROC forces are downrange & on alert. We on the other hand are 10,000 miles away and will be full of turkey. Joe will be full of shit. When push comes to shove they are going to need support where they are before the fighting is over. A few days can be forever. In a week they will be fighting hand-to-hand in Taipei.

 

[pjmret]

ROC forces are downrange & on alert. We on the other hand are 10,000 miles away and will be full of turkey. Joe will be full of shit. When push comes to shove they are going to need support where they are before the fighting is over. A few days can be forever. In a week they will be fighting hand-to-hand in Taipei.

so..position our entire navy or something permanently off taiwan? what do our military leaders say we should do differently?

 

[LittleGreenMan]

so..position our entire navy or something permanently off taiwan? what do our military leaders say we should do differently?

No. Make it known loudly & worldwide that the US will not buy anything from CCP or any country dealing with CCP if they attack Taiwan. A total blockade of trade would immediately bring China to its economic knees. Meanwhile back a the ranch, begin immediately to change all sources of manufacture to an emergency supply here in US, Canada & Mexico, and some, but only some, in EU, Japan, and other Allied countries.

The countries allied with CCP are: Russia, North Korea, Iran & other Middle-Eastern regimes that do not have a big enough combined consumer base to keep CCP afloat, economically. Even if most of the former USSR, Turkey & some South American countries stay with China, they will still not be enough of a foreign market to keep Chinese industry generating enough income & employment to avoid collapse. Giant economies, just like giant companies cannot afford to do less than some fairly high volume to avoid running out of money. CCP has been running their whole economy just like their Ponzi-scheme real estate sector: trading dollars, which means buying from within their own system to expand capacity and also serve the world. For example: a plastic moulder buys Chinese moulding machines, tooling & plastic materials, sells some products in China but wants to sell as much as possible to the world. The Machinery makers buy Chinese steel & materials. The Toolmakers buy Chinese steel & materials. The plastic formulator buys Chinese chemicals. The chemical companies must buy foreign oil with foreign currency. All the workers involved need to be paid and need foreign currency to buy imported goods. China can't feed itself; has little or no oil or natural gas; has a huge Military which produces zero and must be paid & fed. They need foreign money as exchange or investment because all the surplus (profits) go into the government's pockets unlike western industry which eventually supports itself, pays taxes & pays for expansion or invests elsewhere.

Only surplus wealth can be invested. I re-iterate: Only Surplus Wealth Can Be Invested. If all the income goes to burden(cost of buildings, insurance, equipment, tooling, inventory, power, etc., (costs that continue even if the factory is closed)); cost of production labor, materials, freight & power & taxes, if there is nothing left over to reinvest there or elsewhere, then expansion is precluded.

It has always been so in economics that countries need to sell as much as they buy from foreign markets to stay even with the board. The wealth of the country increases to the same extent that they have a trade surplus, and, wealth decreases to the same extent that they have a trade deficit. The US has been draining our national wealth for many years and it is reflected in the places where factories are close. When you remove the factory wages, the surrounding businesses; 7-11's, grocers, bakers, candlestick makers, etc., lose paying customers and stores close and can't be rented by real estate brokers who close, ad infinitum. You see on a small scale here in a town near you real estate that is empty for years and years until it is useless. Economies are closed systems. As wealth-leaks occur, wealth-producers shut down, and the chain extends because the original leak plus the subsequent shut down producers equals more shortfalls close-by and elsewhere in the chain. Think about that on a grand scale in rural flyover where factory towns no longer support themselves. Drive thru Detroit for a real education in dead cities on a grand scale.

The Generals in CCP are not good businessmen, as communists never are. The always run out of Lady Thatcher's, "Other People's Money". We, the former Shining City on the Hill need to lead the free world and bring China to its economic knees where they will capitulate like the USSR threw in the towel after 80 years of communism used-up all their wealth. We failed to do some nation-building in Russia at that time, and the bad people throughout the USSR divvied-up the resources and now run a closed system that keeps poor people poor. That can happen in China if whoever has the chance doesn't go in and supervise recombobulation when it falls. Look at South Korea, Japan, Germany & Austria for examples of what can be had when we put our mind to it. Look at Dresden and Hiroshima in 1945 and now. Look at East Berlin and West Berlin in 1987. Which is better for the local citizens & the world?

 

[pjmret]

No. Make it known loudly & worldwide that the US will not buy anything from CCP or any country dealing with CCP if they attack Taiwan. A total blockade of trade would immediately bring China to its economic knees. Meanwhile back a the ranch, begin immediately to change all sources of manufacture to an emergency supply here in US, Canada & Mexico, and some, but only some, in EU, Japan, and other Allied countries.

The countries allied with CCP are: Russia, North Korea, Iran & other Middle-Eastern regimes that do not have a big enough combined consumer base to keep CCP afloat, economically. Even if most of the former USSR, Turkey & some South American countries stay with China, they will still not be enough of a foreign market to keep Chinese industry generating enough income & employment to avoid collapse. Giant economies, just like giant companies cannot afford to do less than some fairly high volume to avoid running out of money. CCP has been running their whole economy just like their Ponzi-scheme real estate sector: trading dollars, which means buying from within their own system to expand capacity and also serve the world. For example: a plastic moulder buys Chinese moulding machines, tooling & plastic materials, sells some products in China but wants to sell as much as possible to the world. The Machinery makers buy Chinese steel & materials. The Toolmakers buy Chinese steel & materials. The plastic formulator buys Chinese chemicals. The chemical companies must buy foreign oil with foreign currency. All the workers involved need to be paid and need foreign currency to buy imported goods. China can't feed itself; has little or no oil or natural gas; has a huge Military which produces zero and must be paid & fed. They need foreign money as exchange or investment because all the surplus (profits) go into the government's pockets unlike western industry which eventually supports itself, pays taxes & pays for expansion or invests elsewhere.

Only surplus wealth can be invested. I re-iterate: Only Surplus Wealth Can Be Invested. If all the income goes to burden(cost of buildings, insurance, equipment, tooling, inventory, power, etc., (costs that continue even if the factory is closed)); cost of production labor, materials, freight & power & taxes, if there is nothing left over to reinvest there or elsewhere, then expansion is precluded.

It has always been so in economics that countries need to sell as much as they buy from foreign markets to stay even with the board. The wealth of the country increases to the same extent that they have a trade surplus, and, wealth decreases to the same extent that they have a trade deficit. The US has been draining our national wealth for many years and it is reflected in the places where factories are close. When you remove the factory wages, the surrounding businesses; 7-11's, grocers, bakers, candlestick makers, etc., lose paying customers and stores close and can't be rented by real estate brokers who close, ad infinitum. You see on a small scale here in a town near you real estate that is empty for years and years until it is useless. Economies are closed systems. As wealth-leaks occur, wealth-producers shut down, and the chain extends because the original leak plus the subsequent shut down producers equals more shortfalls close-by and elsewhere in the chain. Think about that on a grand scale in rural flyover where factory towns no longer support themselves. Drive thru Detroit for a real education in dead cities on a grand scale.

The Generals in CCP are not good businessmen, as communists never are. The always run out of Lady Thatcher's, "Other People's Money". We, the former Shining City on the Hill need to lead the free world and bring China to its economic knees where they will capitulate like the USSR threw in the towel after 80 years of communism used-up all their wealth. We failed to do some nation-building in Russia at that time, and the bad people throughout the USSR divvied-up the resources and now run a closed system that keeps poor people poor. That can happen in China if whoever has the chance doesn't go in and supervise recombobulation when it falls. Look at South Korea, Japan, Germany & Austria for examples of what can be had when we put our mind to it. Look at Dresden and Hiroshima in 1945 and now. Look at East Berlin and West Berlin in 1987. Which is better for the local citizens & the world?

You think we could just walk away from China that easily?

 

[LittleGreenMan]

Could we walk away from Germany & Japan easily in 1941? Did we do so because we were next and they intended to destroy us? Did Germany and Japan start with us or did they start with little guys, skirmishes in China from 1931, declaring war on China in 1937. Germany began in earnest in 1938 after arming to the teeth. Do you think China has a different set of goals for us, or do they intend to rule the world and us along with the rest? Are you comfortable with China's intentions? This is the 1930s déjà vu all over again. If you have a better plan we'd like to hear it. Tell us where you see things are going, what we should and should not do and what the pivotal issues & acts are/would be. I've been as specific as practical to show my thinking on this, rather than just stating do this or that. We need to respond to China's most likely moves before we are cornered. Keep in mind that the Taiwan Straits are 97 miles wide and a J-20 can make that passage in less than 5 minutes @ 1300 mph. How many wings of J-20's do you think the CCP would muster simultaneously as a second or third or fourth or whatever wave after floods of low-cost sacrificial rockets, drones, et al use up costal defenses?

I know nothing of military tactics, but the fact that the mainland is only 97 miles away means they can stockpile unlimited munitions of their choice right at the doorstep of Taiwan, not to speak of assets at sea. There is no military defense that can overcome Batteries with unlimited resources 97 miles away. Also, expect CCP to blind all space-based observation satellites at the strategic moment of attack. What would you like to bet that they even named it MACE? (Everyone likes a good laugh) Remember: there are always new military devices that are revealed when it's worth it. The oldest truth in the world is the best battle plan is immediately thrown out the window the moment the battle begins because we know that they will do something different from what we expect them to do, so we need to counter with something different from how they think we will defend against them. We know that they know that we know that they know we know... So, expect lasers from space, debilitating gases released by up-wind by mini-subs & drones, and no manned CCP craft until ROC & civilian losses are significant and defenses are exhausted by the attacking remote controlled devices 360° via land and sea. The only safe places in taiwan will be under chip manufacturing machinery. Remember how well the Maginot Line worked? There are two sides in any battle: the guys fighting the last war, again, and the winners.

Your turn. Tell us you plan!

 

[pjmret]

Could we walk away from Germany & Japan easily in 1941? Did we do so because we were next and they intended to destroy us? Did Germany and Japan start with us or did they start with little guys, skirmishes in China from 1931, declaring war on China in 1937. Germany began in earnest in 1938 after arming to the teeth. Do you think China has a different set of goals for us, or do they intend to rule the world and us along with the rest? Are you comfortable with China's intentions? This is the 1930s déjà vu all over again. If you have a better plan we'd like to hear it. Tell us where you see things are going, what we should and should not do and what the pivotal issues & acts are/would be. I've been as specific as practical to show my thinking on this, rather than just stating do this or that. We need to respond to China's most likely moves before we are cornered. Keep in mind that the Taiwan Straits are 97 miles wide and a J-20 can make that passage in less than 5 minutes @ 1300 mph. How many wings of J-20's do you think the CCP would muster simultaneously as a second or third or fourth or whatever wave after floods of low-cost sacrificial rockets, drones, et al use up costal defenses?

I know nothing of military tactics, but the fact that the mainland is only 97 miles away means they can stockpile unlimited munitions of their choice right at the doorstep of Taiwan, not to speak of assets at sea. There is no military defense that can overcome Batteries with unlimited resources 97 miles away. Also, expect CCP to blind all space-based observation satellites at the strategic moment of attack. What would you like to bet that they even named it MACE? (Everyone likes a good laugh) Remember: there are always new military devices that are revealed when it's worth it. The oldest truth in the world is the best battle plan is immediately thrown out the window the moment the battle begins because we know that they will do something different from what we expect them to do, so we need to counter with something different from how they think we will defend against them. We know that they know that we know that they know we know... So, expect lasers from space, debilitating gases released by up-wind by mini-subs & drones, and no manned CCP craft until ROC & civilian losses are significant and defenses are exhausted by the attacking remote controlled devices 360° via land and sea. The only safe places in taiwan will be under chip manufacturing machinery. Remember how well the Maginot Line worked? There are two sides in any battle: the guys fighting the last war, again, and the winners.

Your turn. Tell us you plan!

I don't have a plan but I didn't start a thread to complain
You are complain8ng about this while admitting you know nothing about ir
That's the definition of whining

 

[LittleGreenMan]

I don't have a plan but I didn't start a thread to complain
You are complain8ng about this while admitting you know nothing about ir
That's the definition of whining

You're an Asshole's Asshole. You enter a conversation with nothing to say. I enter conversations to exchange ideas. Whatever else is true, there is an answer; there will be an outcome one way or the other, but you will have offered nothing. It's what you do best: nothing.

 

[pjmret]

You're an Asshole's Asshole. You enter a conversation with nothing to say. I enter conversations to exchange ideas. Whatever else is true, there is an answer; there will be an outcome one way or the other, but you will have offered nothing. It's what you do best: nothing.

i'm glad to be of service!

 

[the annoying thing]

Is the day after Christmas a big dy in taiwan?Taiwan? Will the Taiwan military be off guard that day?

will you

 

[pjmret]

will you

not me. and I doubt the taiwanese military will either.