I don't see them as the same thing -- I simply think the only real option we have is to seek to delay their program. I don't think we have the capability (given our political climate etc) to "end" it.
This is simply not true -- there are rebel groups (plural) inside of Iran that seek to overthrow the government -- and would stand a much better chance with our air power.
Additionally -- you again assume that regime change will be the goal -- perhaps the goal is simply the destruction of key facilities throughout the country -- in which case -- who cares what the ground game looks like?
Well -- the short term is of course it rises -- after that it depends on varying other factors. How fast can production be brought back online, will other nations increase their production capacity -- but we can generally agree it will rise in the short term for sure.
Well -- it depends on the price of course.
I don't know -- how high would prices have to go before demand falls? At some point -- you can ask $200 for a barrel of oil, but if demand doesn't meet your supply, you end up with excess inventories and the price comes down. That is a good way to tell when oil is overvalued. I know we have had this discussion before, but demand meets supply at $125 (or whatever) then the price of oil is valid.
Now -- as for what the exact number is in the short term that will hurt our recovery -- I don't know -- I am not an economist.
Short term -- they are hurt -- same as ours.
Again -- I don't know -- it depends on the war.
Frankly -- I think politics did. The S&P seemed to say as much in their report on the matter.
That depends on the level of spending, our growth rates, the relative strength of the dollar etc.
Impact in regards to what? This is quite a broad question.
Then we become less able to monetize our debt for the same price we are now.
I think whichever party starts the war will be swept from power in the next election. However, if the action is nothing more than airstrikes -- I think the political blowback is lessened, and can be overcome.
My point is not that ultimately we cannot be destroyed by our own overspending. My point is simply that we are not there yet. Yes, we got downgraded (but not by all agencies), but the market still says our debt is the best around -- just look at the Treasury yields. When you can borrow money at 2% for a long term rate, you are not on the verge of collapse. It is when the market starts to demand 6%-7% for that borrowing power that you are in real trouble.
In my opinion -- borrowing an additional two trillion dollars at this point is not going to ruin the country. Does that mean we should do it? No. Does that mean we should not worry about the debt and paying it down? No. It just means that if push comes to shove -- I think we can handle it.
