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steve, et al,

 

I have learned over the years, to never say never.  But this is "highly improbably."

 


 

(COMMENT)

 

There are multiple levels to this question of War with Iran.  It is multifaceted in both the scope and dimension of this hypothetical conflict.  Back in the late 1970's, I participated in an exercise called "Positive Leap."  With my time in Vietnam still (relatively) fresh in my mind, I studied the War Gamers and the considerations they took into account and the assumptions they made in the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP).  Granted, some three decades later, there are new capabilities and limitations to consider.  Yet, even today, after having been to theater level operations centers in both Iraq and Afghanistan, the basic obstacles - and how to overcome them - still haunt us.

 

America is very afraid (politically and militarily) to use its nuclear arsenal.  This has an extremely low probability of actually occurring.

 

Having said that, to consider putting ground forces anyway in Iran is a perilous venture.  Such an action would have the gravest of consequences.  In a conventional setting, this too is highly unlikely.  The terrain is simply all wrong given the complexion of our military force structure and basic numbers.

 

Thus:  The US is limited in the number of viable options it has to select.  Most probably, a complex air - sea campaign. 

 

In contemplating a "worst case scenario," certainly a WWIII might be among them, but one would have to conceive of a cascade of events that would force other world players to enter the fray.  And on entering the fray, who is going to align themselves with whom.  And to figure that out, you have to understand what is in each participants best interest.

 

Within each scenario, there are incidental fallout consequences.  In the last half of the last century, terrorism and asymmetric warfare have emerged as a new tool;  along with Third Generation Warfare (Proxy Combatants)

 

It is more likely that any engagement of substance (air, land, or sea) between the US and the Forces of Iran, will result in a two-tier unintended asymmetric consequence; one of direct alignment and one of sympathetic alignment.  And this is more likely than the others because of the reputation the US has with regional indigenous populations and standing anti-American alliances. 

 

Most Respectfully,

R


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