Since JFK,,No 1st term president got re-elected when unemployment rate is above 7.4

[steveox]

1972-11-01 5.3 Nixon re-elected
1976-11-01 7.8 Ford loses to Carter
1980-11-01 7.5 Carter loses to Reagan
1984-11-01 7.2 Reagan re-elected
1992-11-01 7.5 Bush loses to Clinton
1996-11-01 5.4 Clinton re-elected
2004-11-01 5.4 Bush Jr re-elected
Now it stands 9-1

Every election day when unemployment is above 7.6 the first term president loses. You see when voters see they dont have a job a paycheck they get angry and vote for the next party president

 

[pocketfullofshells]

and none ran against the sorry group the Republicans have today. Also polls show that when asked who is to blame the most for todays econ...its still the Bush white house..aka republicans...you know who where in charge when everything collapsed?

Also you can't seem to add or something, as you say if over 7.6 they lose...if you look if you have 7.5 you lose as well...but somehow 7.3 you should be on Rushmore and are a God to Republicans.

 

[steveox]

Sorry my Bad its the typos. 7.4 is correct. In other words if its below 7.4 you might have a chance. Theres a lot of work Obama needs to do get the jobs back. And his buddy Jeffrey Immelt isnt helping him when he moved GE to China

 

[dogtowner]

I think POS fails to understand the average Joe who thinks all pols are bad and just know when his wallet is hurting its time for a change. its beyond obvious that people are not happy with how things are under the current administration.

 

[Popeye]

However unemployment figures are moving downward

Compare that trajectory with Reagan's of 1982-84...who began his reelection race with unemployment above 10%..

It's not so much about where unemployment currently stands, but the trend come election day. And currently, much like with Reagan, the figures are heading downward....which is bad news for Republicans.

 

[dogtowner]

However unemployment figures are moving downward

Compare that trajectory with Reagan's of 1982-84...who began his reelection race with unemployment above 10%..

It's not so much about where unemployment currently stands, but the trend come election day. And currently, much like with Reagan, the figures are heading downward....which is bad news for Republicans.

I'm sure you note that the rate of the so-called decline is far steeper under Reagan. Moreover the calculations are not the same now as before. All we are seeing today is people dropping out of the workforce in alarming numbers.

 

[Openmind]

Sorry my Bad its the typos. 7.4 is correct. In other words if its below 7.4 you might have a chance. Theres a lot of work Obama needs to do get the jobs back. And his buddy Jeffrey Immelt isnt helping him when he moved GE to China

There is a first for everything!
And no President over the last 50 years has had to deal with being handed down to him the worse recession since the great depression, TWO wars, AND a global economic downturn. . .in addition to the outright war against him, with the "leader" of the GOP actually STATING that the GOP's first priority is NOT to create jobs, and it is NOT to reduce the deficit, and it is NOT to improve the economy, or education, or health care. . .but the PRIORITY #1 of the GOP is to "MAKE OBAMA FAIL!"

Yep. .this is a "first" allright!

Now, let's see what happens in November 2012.

 

[steveox]

Anybody hear the big news from IRAN? Gas is gonna go $4 a gallion!!! And then more layoffs and higher prices. Remember the last time Iran did this? Is when Jimmy Carter was president we had long gas lines and he lowered the speed limit to 55MPH that gave cops power to steal from you.

And Carter made this lame speech

Comon Mr Obama we can do better

Unleash Sheer hell on IRAN

 

[Openmind]

I'm sure you note that the rate of the so-called decline is far steeper under Reagan. Moreover the calculations are not the same now as before. All we are seeing today is people dropping out of the workforce in alarming numbers.

Unemployment went down from 9.8% to 8.6% in 12 months (from 10/10 through 10/11) according to your graph.
Unemployment went down from 8.7% to 7.4% in 12 months (from 10/83 through 10/84) still according to your graph.

The recession in the 80's was NOT the second largest recession since the Grand Depression. . .the 2008 recession was. The 80's didn't see a GLOBAL recession, or a house market crash, or TWO wars, all issues that are being faced by Obama and the American people today.

I realize that, lower unemployment and improving economic situation are NOT what you want to see. . .no more than most self declared "patriots" want to see that, because you prefer to see Obama fail, rather than see Americans succeed. . .but just spewing misleading data will not help your case. People are waking up, and realizing in every greater numbers what has been happening with the GOP and the dirty games they have played to feed their obsession with Obama.

I'm enjoying the show!

 

[dogtowner]

Anybody hear the big news from IRAN? Gas is gonna go $4 a gallion!!! And then more layoffs and higher prices. Remember the last time Iran did this? Is when Jimmy Carter was president we had long gas lines and he lowered the speed limit to 55MPH that gave cops power to steal from you.

And Carter made this lame speech

Unleash Sheer hell on IRAN

As Carter showed weakness so has Obama and this is the result.
Happy New Year.

 

[Openmind]

As Carter showed weakness so has Obama and this is the result.
Happy New Year.

By the way. . . I didn't finish answering your preceeding post (re: unemployment in the 80's and today). You made the erroneous statement that unemployment was measure differently at that time, so it showed the REAL unemployment while today, it doesn't show people who have given up looking for work

You are partially right. . .it did measure unemployment differently. . .but on the contrary, it didn't show a more realistic rate of unemployment. . .it CHANGED the way it measures unemployment in the 80's precisely to make the unemployment rate APPEAR lower. . . so, the unemployment rate in 83 and 84 may not have been lower than in 82, but APPEARED lower. . .they were comparing apples and oranges in those years.

We are still using basically the same system of calculation today, but at least, the unemployment rate in 2010 and 2011 was using the SAME CRITERIA. . .comparing apples and apples!

THE DEFINITION AND MEASUREMENT OF UNEMPLOYMENT
Became controversial in the 80's as the conservative government redefined it to keep the figures down. In 1982 the government counted claims for benefits rather than those seeking work.
Underestimating Unemployment

• Main critics, left and feminists.
• Married women are unlikely able to get benefits but likely to look for work.
• Under 16 may not get benefit, but be forced onto schemes.
• People older or sick were/are encouraged to claim other benefits.
• 'Not seeking work', might get benefits stopped, but the government decides what this definition actually is.
• When jobs are scarce, marginal workers eg. learning challenge, may be seen as unemployable rather than unemployed.

 

[Openmind]

Anybody hear the big news from IRAN? Gas is gonna go $4 a gallion!!! And then more layoffs and higher prices. Remember the last time Iran did this? Is when Jimmy Carter was president we had long gas lines and he lowered the speed limit to 55MPH that gave cops power to steal from you.

And Carter made this lame speech

Comon Mr Obama we can do better

Unleash Sheer hell on IRAN

Are you ready to enlist?
If you're not ready to share the "hell" that you want our governement to enlish on another country. . .and on our own military. .maybe you should reconsider that, it might be cheaper both in lives and in gas money to turn in the gib gas guzzlers and turn down the thermostat, rather than go back into something that could be worse, much worse, than the Iraq war. . .and for no greater benefits!

 

[dogtowner]

Are you ready to enlist?
If you're not ready to share the "hell" that you want our governement to enlish on another country. . .and on our own military. .maybe you should reconsider that, it might be cheaper both in lives and in gas money to turn in the gib gas guzzlers and turn down the thermostat, rather than go back into something that could be worse, much worse, than the Iraq war. . .and for no greater benefits!

Iran has far less capability to wage war than did Iraq. There would be no need for a land action.

 

[steveox]

Remember IRAN released the hostages when Reagan took office? They were scared shit of a republican president. Iran knows liberals wont fight back,,But republicans will,,Remember the Bombing in that disco reseraunt in west germany killed American military personell? What did Reagan do? He bombed the hell outta Tripoli,,He said he felt no remorse for what he did,,If nessary he shall do it again. Thats what kind of leadership we need,,Someone like an old west sheriff run the outlaws outta town.

 

[pocketfullofshells]

I think POS fails to understand the average Joe who thinks all pols are bad and just know when his wallet is hurting its time for a change. its beyond obvious that people are not happy with how things are under the current administration.

And again the polls show that more blame congress and W for the issues...

also do you really think a .2 percent change changes if you win or lose?

Also G H W Bush won the Election with 7.5 if you take away Ross Perot and the fact that most likey his votes would have in decent numbers gone Republican. There is no 3rd party yet to do that in this election...and if there is...its likey on the Right.

It use to be thought that if you where elected into office of the white house in 20 years cycles, that you would die in office...
of course this was true...until it was not when Reagan was not killed though came close. 7.2 7.6 7.9...does not matter...its not a statistic that somehow if you hit some magic number you can't win. Who Obama runs against has a far far far greater impact that if getting the percent down .2 precent or something to match some magic number.

1800 Jefferson Survived: Died July 4, 1826.
1820 Monroe Survived: Died July 4, 1831.
1840, Harrison April 4, 1841. Pneumonia
1860, Lincoln April 15, 1865. Assassinated
1880, Garfield July 2, 1881. Assassinated
1900, McKinley September 19, 1901. Assassinated
1920, Harding August 2, 1923. Food poisoning
1940, Roosevelt April 12, 1945. Stroke, medical records missing
1960, Kennedy
November 22, 1963. Assassinated