Stalin
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Apr 4, 2008
- Messages
- 4,154
well surprise surprise..no mission accomplished here despite frump's bluster
From the start, this is a war that has not gone according to plan. The idea was to assassinate the supreme leader and as many of the religious and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leadership as possible, in order to damage the power of the state so the theocracy would collapse. That failed miserably, as one US intelligence assessment had predicted. The regime has a new leader and there will no doubt be one or more “reserves” already selected in case Mojtaba Khamenei is assassinated.
Meanwhile we are now into plan B, a strategy with two elements. The less significant is to weaken the state by working with minority groups such as the Kurds and perhaps the Baluchis to revolt and catalyse the fragmentation of Iran. That might have some impact, but the Kurds, for a start, will be cautious about trusting the Israelis – and even more so, a US under Trump.
The other element – much more significant – is concentrating more on Israel’s traditional approach in such circumstances: destroying an enemy’s domestic support. This is the Dahiya doctrine: if an insurgency cannot be ended or the leadership of a state cannot be subdued, the route to victory lies with the relentless punishing of the civilian population.
It is being used in Lebanon, as Israel’s destruction of Hezbollah’s stronghold in the southern Beirut suburb of Dahiya gets under way, the suburb having given its name to the doctrine back in the 2006 war against Hezbollah.
Critics point out that the doctrine has been used on a huge scale against Hamas in Gaza over the past 30 months. That resulted in at least 70,000 Palestinians being killed, an even greater number wounded and most of the territory reduced to ruins. Yet Hamas survives, and parts of Gaza are still under its control.
www.theguardian.com
comrade stalin
moscow
From the start, this is a war that has not gone according to plan. The idea was to assassinate the supreme leader and as many of the religious and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leadership as possible, in order to damage the power of the state so the theocracy would collapse. That failed miserably, as one US intelligence assessment had predicted. The regime has a new leader and there will no doubt be one or more “reserves” already selected in case Mojtaba Khamenei is assassinated.
Meanwhile we are now into plan B, a strategy with two elements. The less significant is to weaken the state by working with minority groups such as the Kurds and perhaps the Baluchis to revolt and catalyse the fragmentation of Iran. That might have some impact, but the Kurds, for a start, will be cautious about trusting the Israelis – and even more so, a US under Trump.
The other element – much more significant – is concentrating more on Israel’s traditional approach in such circumstances: destroying an enemy’s domestic support. This is the Dahiya doctrine: if an insurgency cannot be ended or the leadership of a state cannot be subdued, the route to victory lies with the relentless punishing of the civilian population.
It is being used in Lebanon, as Israel’s destruction of Hezbollah’s stronghold in the southern Beirut suburb of Dahiya gets under way, the suburb having given its name to the doctrine back in the 2006 war against Hezbollah.
Critics point out that the doctrine has been used on a huge scale against Hamas in Gaza over the past 30 months. That resulted in at least 70,000 Palestinians being killed, an even greater number wounded and most of the territory reduced to ruins. Yet Hamas survives, and parts of Gaza are still under its control.
The US-Israeli strategy failed to defeat Iran quickly – now they are moving to plan B | Paul Rogers
It’s called the Dahiya doctrine – and the IDF and US air force are using it to destroy domestic support in Iran, says emeritus professor of peace studies Paul Roger
comrade stalin
moscow
