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A Prediction Supported With Facts

Discussion in 'U.S. Politics' started by Greco, Oct 24, 2008.

  1. Greco

    Greco Well-Known Member

    Oct 9, 2008
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    Here's a suggestion for your watch party on November 4th. Don't blink. Forget the coffee pot to keep you awake into the wee hours of the morning. It will be called early, and I think I can make my case.

    The polls will close first on the east coast. In the states Barack Obama is currently leading, it won't take long for the states to determine who is leading, and how they will fall. My only "unless" would center around those Republican lovin' folks at Diebold pulling some hanky panky. With the exception of Florida, the key states are strong Obama states and once votes begin to be reported, it will be a quick call to place them in Obama's win column. The eastern states should deliver 192 votes for Obama.

    That leaves him only 78 short of the winning margin of 270.

    The central states will report in next. Here’s where the election will be decided. The states Obama currently has in his camp, with the exception of Missouri, are so strong that once vote totals start to be reported it will be a quick call to place them in Obama's win column. The central states should deliver 87 votes for Obama.

    One of the central states will bring Obama’s total to 279 votes, nine more than the 270 winning margin. Remember, California alone has 55 votes.

    Next up are the mountain states. Both New Mexico and Colorado are trending strong for Obama, and once again as voting totals start to be reported, the states will be called quickly for Obama. The mountain states should deliver 14 votes for Obama.

    That brings his total to 293 votes, twenty-three over the winning margin.

    The western states, with the exception of Nevada, are slam dunks for Obama. As soon as vote totals start rolling, with the election already decided, the networks will be quick to call the states for Obama. The western states should deliver 82 votes for Obama.

    That delivers a total of 375 votes, 105 above the 270 winning threshold.

    My point is, in the Obama states, once the votes in key areas start getting reported, they will be significant enough of a trend for the states to be called. The east coast will be quick and easy, and deliver a huge block of 192 votes. Knowing the absolute certainty of votes from Illinois, California, Washington, Oregon, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan and Minnesota, which total 131 votes waiting to be awarded, will begin to make it increasingly easier for the networks to call states as the reporting moves west.

    Aside from the obvious good news about the election outcome, there is another piece of good news lurking in my prediction. An early resolution gives us all that much more time to party and celebrate. After all, we've been waiting eight long years for this moment and we've got some serious whoopin' and hollerin' to do.

    Here's the breakdown on a state by state basis from which I drew my conclusions.


    New York – 31
    Maine – 4
    New Hampshire – 4
    Massachusetts – 12
    Connecticut – 7
    Vermont – 3
    Rhode Island – 4
    New Jersey – 15
    Delaware -3
    Maryland – 10
    District of Columbia – 3
    Virginia – 13
    Pennsylvania – 21
    North Carolina – 15
    Ohio – 20
    Florida - 27

    Total: 192


    Michigan – 17
    Minnesota – 10
    Wisconsin – 10
    Iowa – 7
    Illinois – 21
    Missouri – 11
    Indiana - 11

    Total: 87


    New Mexico – 5
    Colorado – 9

    Total: 14


    Nevada – 5
    Washington – 11
    Oregon – 7
    California – 55
    Hawaii - 4

    Total: 82

  2. Greco

    Greco Well-Known Member

    Oct 9, 2008
    Likes Received:
    "We got 'em just where we want 'em." --- Napoleon Bonapart at Waterloo

    "We got 'em just where we want 'em." --- Gen. George Armstrong Custer at Little Big Horn

    "We got 'em just where we want 'em." --- Sen. John McCain two weeks before the general election

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