Most here know as well as I that the Frogs will spin an organized default as something other than a default. But the reality is it is a default so creditors may smile and put up a brave front while holding onto their wallets.
This will only buy some time for Greece because they have not implimented any austerity. It remains that 75% of Greeks work for the gov. The whole thing is a mess. This is just more shuffling the debt.
Under no circumstances will I unlock my hedges. The press run by a few hedges are trying to push markets higher on vapor. Earnings season, aside from a few standouts is going down and down guiding. No question Europe is entering a recession. Spain has 22% unemployment and Greece under austerity to undo the massive bloat of that gov will run unemployment to 30%. The USA unemployement is 10% according to the CBO. We are the biggest debtors along with Japan who is now officially in recession again with their trade deficit.
China thus far has been very careful and it holding back on spending. There is a real potential if China decides to slow it all down a bit which they should, then these debt ridden nations will snap into recession. The entire world is playing with fire. This is why bonds are not going down.
That is my present chief signal for any recovery. That bond money would have moved out of bonds; It hasn't budged in the face of all the cnbc euphoria. So while I am generally a bull, this trading range this time around is cooked. And election year or not, when it comes down, it will come down hard.
At the end of the day today I thought we were going to have a mini flash crash. Market slopped off a very fast 60 points in a short span. So anyone that thinks low volume rallies are safe, should have their heads examined.
I am hedged with a tilt to the downside and I am not budging.
This will only buy some time for Greece because they have not implimented any austerity. It remains that 75% of Greeks work for the gov. The whole thing is a mess. This is just more shuffling the debt.
Under no circumstances will I unlock my hedges. The press run by a few hedges are trying to push markets higher on vapor. Earnings season, aside from a few standouts is going down and down guiding. No question Europe is entering a recession. Spain has 22% unemployment and Greece under austerity to undo the massive bloat of that gov will run unemployment to 30%. The USA unemployement is 10% according to the CBO. We are the biggest debtors along with Japan who is now officially in recession again with their trade deficit.
China thus far has been very careful and it holding back on spending. There is a real potential if China decides to slow it all down a bit which they should, then these debt ridden nations will snap into recession. The entire world is playing with fire. This is why bonds are not going down.
That is my present chief signal for any recovery. That bond money would have moved out of bonds; It hasn't budged in the face of all the cnbc euphoria. So while I am generally a bull, this trading range this time around is cooked. And election year or not, when it comes down, it will come down hard.
At the end of the day today I thought we were going to have a mini flash crash. Market slopped off a very fast 60 points in a short span. So anyone that thinks low volume rallies are safe, should have their heads examined.
I am hedged with a tilt to the downside and I am not budging.