Iowa

Per the request of Bunz (who, for some obscure reason, can't post threads), here is a thread to debate the results of the Iowa caucus. Indicitive of the national election? More or less pointless? You decide. Let's hear it.

 

Well, I think the big loser was Hillary. Coming in third was a big disappointment. Obama looks to be stronger than ever now, but it's still far from over. I wouldn't count the Clinton's out in any election. They'll use any underhanded trick in the book to get back on top. But, hopefully, the younger voters in the Democratic Party are ready to move on and be done with the Clintons. That's certainly what the exit polling showed, and all I can to that is "Thank God."

As for the Republicans, it's still wide open. Mike Huckabee will not win New Hampshire, so I think you'll still have 6 candidates in play when Super Tuesday arrives. Unless, Ron Paul can vault over Fred Thompson. Then, Thompson may drop out. Paul definitely did better than expected, and better than his poll numbers suggested.

As commentator Greta van Sustern said: "Ten per cent is not insignificant - that's a huge number. Here you have a candidate that 10 per cent of the people caucused in his party really want him and it's not like he's an insignificant player. He didn't just drop in yesterday to the process, he has been running for president for a long time, and certainly many of the issues he's raised are rather provocative and certainly stimulate the debate; that's not a bad thing."

Can Paul improve his standing in New Hampshire? He should, because the demographic supports his ideas better. If he could move from fifth place to fourth place there, it would be a positive step for his campaign, but he really needs to jump to third I think, in order to get more media coverage.

 

The latest polling, in NH, shows Paul in 4th place, still in single digits.http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_primary-193.html He obviously has no chance. What is remarkable, is the way Giuliani has fallen, perhaps it's just temporary, or perhaps the scandals have caught up to him.

As for Hilliary, I wouldn't count her out either. Though I don't think she's any more "underhanded" than any other politician, including the darling of the white supremacists Ron Paul. I really wonder if America is ready for a president the color of Obama, with no experience to boot. In my mind John Edwards gives the Democrats the best chance to win, many of the polls show that as well.

 

I think it will be very hard to stop OBAMA now. I like Edwards a lot. I liked Biden. I even like Hillary.

But OBAMA is the biggest change candidate and he's the best public speaker of anyone in any campaign.

He also has the Oprah effect going for him and he's bringing in young people, new voters by the bus load. Iowa 239,000 at the caucuses, double of last time.

It's big and I think it's going to sweep the nation... I really do.

 

Vyo, Thanks for starting it Buddy.

A few things from my perspective. As Top Gun has said, It will be very hard to stop Obama. I was a Biden supporter before and will probably support Obama in the Alaska primary on super Tuesday. I also watched the NH debates tonight and was continually impressed and for Hillary to go after him as much as she did, it shows she is afraid of him.
Hillary for sure was the big loser in Iowa and I think she will lose in NH as well at this point. The thing with Hillary I have come to learn I share this view with many Americans, it is either that they love her or despise her. I am one who would go with a write in candidate before I would support Hillary.

As for the GOP side in Iowa...I hope they are proud of themselves...they elected Bill Clinton's little Christian cousin! I find that the most ironic piece of the story as it went down. Romney obviously should be disappointed, but he is another one that comes across as so phony to me and I am glad the folks in Iowa showed him up on that account.

Today, my prediction as to who will be the nominees, I am saying Obama and McCain. Which will be a good race in my opinion. I could certainly be wrong, but those two winning thier party nominations seems more than plausible at this point.

 

I agree it was a big win for Obama but I still think Hillary is the frontrunner for the Democratic nominee and still believe she is the favorite to become my next CinC, as scary as that may be.

Bunz, however, is right. No candidate has ever been elected with negatives as high as Hillary.

The thing that both her and Obama are relying on is changing the denominator of the total number of voters by bringing out the women and blacks who typically don't vote. Every other candidate is aiming to just change the numerator in their favor.

Huckabee isn't going anywhere. 60% of the people who showed up at the Iowa caucuses were evangelicals so his win shouldn't be much of a surprise. NH will be much less favorable to him. Romney was definitely a huge disappointment -- outspending Huckabee 20 to 1 and still coming up short is not a good sign.

McCain is an interesting choice. I think it's between him and Guliani (who I think is going to do very well on Super Tuesday) and Hillary for the Dems.

 

I think we're the only ones who pay attention to caucuses and primaries. It means little to the average American.

 

Obama has gotten a big bounce out of his victory in Iowa. The newest polls in NH show him leading Clinton by double figures in several. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_primaries.html

He could very well be the nominee. If he his, wait until the Republican slime machine gets hold of the Muslim school he attended, his lack of experience, his admitted cocaine use, and you know they'll figure someway to use his color against him.

He's extremely charismatic, and I definitely would vote for him, but is he really the best candidate to put up in Nov.?

 

I didn't know about that. Still, there is precedent, no?

His lack of experience is both his biggest asset and his biggest liability.

 

For my Jarheaded buddy:
Obviously tomorrow is the NH primaries, and the results will be the true indication and we can sit here and play pundit all we want, but Hillary has dropped signifigantly since Iowa and she is behind in NH. Plus her little bout of "emotion" on the campaign trial doesnt impress me one bit. As a matter of fact it scares me. The notion that she might get emotionally overwhelmed and break down in a tense meeting or crisis moment is bothersome. Also, please dont see this as a knock against her as a woman and the fairer gender more likely to have that happen...I wouldnt have said it if she didnt shed tears.

Normally I would agree with this, but I think 08 is different, considering the circumstances of looking forward to the Bush hangover in just over a year.

 

I agree as far as the primaries themselves...however, the headlines generated from them are entirely a different matter. In fact, I would say that those headlines are all the average American knows about a candidate.