What will happen if we Withdraw from Iraq

What would happen if the US created a 1 year timeline for the withdrawl of our troops from policing Iraq. Leaving maybe 10,000 - 20,000 just to secure the embassy, fight international foreign terrorists in special missions and assist the Iraqi government with training and intelligence?

 

Iraq would experience the greatest reward any Nation could desire.... the right to self determination.

 

After they killed each other for it in a major civil war. The situation is Iraq is terrible, we blew our chance to have a quick transition right from the get-go. Saudi Arabia and Iran and Turkey are not going to just sit there and allow this war to occur.

Turkey has already made very clear than any independent Kurdish area is totally out of the question given their large domestic Kurdish populations. Turkey has also moved troops to the border, and I think right after a US pull out, Turkey would move into the Kurdish areas.

Saudi Arabia is not going to sit by while an Iranian dominated Shiite government takes over either. The implications for Iraq becoming an Iranian puppet are to great and will upset the balance of power in the region as Iran would rise to more of a regional hegemon. Saudi Arabia will not sit by idly while this happens.

Iran would get involved as well. They are already involved backing certain militias (for many reasons), but they would certainly attempt to continue the shiite dominance and give that their backing, as they certainly want to rise to more of a regional hegemon.

The end result, I would say, would be that immediately following a pullout, you see Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia all quickly moving in to fill the void and pursue their own interests. As their interests will clash with each other, the war in Iraq will only get more bloody and more chaotic.

All of this will of course be blamed on the United States, since we started the entire problem by invading. And thus we are still left with the entire Middle East losing faith in the US (moderates especially) and seeing a rise in Iranian influence. Along with that rise, China and Russia will move in to fill the void as they are desperate to gain more influence in the region, something that the United States simply does not, and really cannot, allow.

 

You've swallowed the entire Bush doctrine hook, line, and sinker. The Middle East lost faith in the U.S. a long time ago, the Iraq war has just made it worse. Iran has a right to be influential in the region,I mean, unlike us, they do reside there. Iraq has a right to self determination, no matter how bloody.

 

The Middle East did not lose faith in the US a long time ago. Contrary to what you might think Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia are not the entire Middle East. Saudi Arabia still has faith in the US to an extent, along with the numerous more moderate Arab states who are watching to see what the US's next move will be in the region. None of these states have lost faith in the United States as of yet, but a pullout would ensure that this occurs.

As for swallowing the Bush doctrine, I think Bush is a moron when it comes to ME policy. And contrary to what you may think of me, I am well qualified to speak on this issue as I have a degree in International Relations with a focus on the Middle East. Obviously there will be dissenting opinions, but the majority of people looking at the issue agree that moderate arab states do retain some form of faith in the United States at this time.

 

Precisely. And to believe that Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, or any other nation would invade Iraq and suffer the consequences of a global backlash is patently ridiculous.

 

And this comment shows your general ignorance of Middle East politics.

What global backlash? They are going to come in under some form of peacekeeping premise and go about exactly what I just outlined.

 

And you know that HOW? Oh ya, your degree in Middle East whatever.

Iraq has the right to self determination just like America did over a hundred years ago. To deny any nation this basic right shows that your degree would best be put to use in the bathroom. Why is it that people have the need to make others submit to their will?

 

I agree they do have that right, but a pullout has nothing to do with that and will not result in that. If you do not want to debate the points, just stop debating. You have yet to offer any valid response to any point I raised. (and there are some in case you were wondering). Please debate the points or just stop debating.

 

Exactly, couldn't have said it better myself. By the way, just because he doesn't agree with you doesn't negate his right to debate.

 

What you fail to realize is that a pullout will not result in them gaining this right. Again, please debate the valid points that have been laid out, or just stop arguing.

 

What "valid points",? more like Republican talking points. I've heard and seen it all before. It's all just an excuse for the U.S. to dominate the region. It's all about the oil my friend, but then, a man with your background should know that.

 

I was wondering what "points" he was referring to also.

 

I will paste them over since you cannot read them.

"Turkey has already made very clear than any independent Kurdish area is totally out of the question given their large domestic Kurdish populations. Turkey has also moved troops to the border, and I think right after a US pull out, Turkey would move into the Kurdish areas.

Saudi Arabia is not going to sit by while an Iranian dominated Shiite government takes over either. The implications for Iraq becoming an Iranian puppet are to great and will upset the balance of power in the region as Iran would rise to more of a regional hegemon. Saudi Arabia will not sit by idly while this happens.

Iran would get involved as well. They are already involved backing certain militias (for many reasons), but they would certainly attempt to continue the shiite dominance and give that their backing, as they certainly want to rise to more of a regional hegemon.

The end result, I would say, would be that immediately following a pullout, you see Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia all quickly moving in to fill the void and pursue their own interests. As their interests will clash with each other, the war in Iraq will only get more bloody and more chaotic."


All of these facts are well documented in the news and intelligence reports. A pullout is not going to result in Iraq being able to have self-determination.

You could perhaps argue that it was all about the oil, an argument that I do not buy into, but you cannot argue anymore that it is still about the oil. If you want to make the claim that it is all about the oil, please offer some evidence or facts to back your claim up and I will be happy to debate it with you, if not then your claim is invalid.

If your answer to every logical post with examples and evidence supporting it is simply "oh a Republican talking point" then a debate it pointless, and we can thank our lucky stars you do not work for the government.

 

Over 100 years ago? Public education speaks.