Jewish Leaders Caught In Iran Bind
Even as they fight revived charges that Israel and the pro-Israel community are beating the drums for war with Iran, Jewish leaders here are quietly trying to protect President George W. Bush’s ability to use military force to knock out that country’s nuclear weapons program if diplomatic efforts fail.
But they are running headlong into a national mood of skepticism and distrust about American foreign policy in general — and a surge of opposition to any new U.S. military involvements in particular.
Talking even indirectly about the war option is risky because “there is virtually no public support for an attack on Iran,” said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato.
And a leading Jewish military analyst warned that Jewish leaders are playing with fire by talking about the military option without understanding its difficulties or dangers.
“Flirting with the military option without understanding its meaning is very dangerous,” said Shoshana Bryen, special projects director for the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs (JINSA). “I don’t think Jewish leaders are pushing the administration to war, but by not understanding the consequences, they are not making themselves look good; they open themselves up to a lot of criticism by being glib about going to war.”
Bryen, whose group has strong ties to U.S. and Israeli military leaders, said there are no simple, clean military options for dealing with the Iranian threat, and that almost any U.S. attack would prompt massive retaliation against Israel.
Jewish leaders “say they don’t want to remove the military option, but when asked how we should exercise it, the answer is usually ‘uhhhh,’” she said. “That really weakens their case.”
Bryen said she agrees with most Jewish leaders that “the military option should never be taken off the table. But I would be very careful about how I throw it around out in public.”
The dilemma for Jewish leaders is this: While almost none advocates preemptive military action to end the threat of a nuclear Iran, most believe opposition to new military commitments is growing by leaps and bounds — a new version of the classic “Vietnam syndrome.”
And if Iran believes military action is unlikely, “you have no diplomatic leverage,” said Abraham Foxman, national director of the Anti-Defamation League. “I don’t think there is a great deal of understanding [among the American public] of the threat Iran poses to the United States and the entire region, including Israel.”
That was the driving force behind the successful effort earlier this year by pro-Israel groups to thwart legislation that would have forced Bush to get congressional backing before unleashing a depleted military on Iran.
“It’s probably a mistake to take military action off the table in any part of the world,” said Martin Raffel, assistant executive director of the Jewish Council for Public Affairs (JCPA). “The administration needs to have the capacity, when necessary, to use military force; if you take that off the table, you’re limiting your range of options.”
Keeping all options open remains a priority for the pro-Israel community, he said, along with ratcheting up diplomatic and economic pressure on the Tehran regime.
Raffel conceded that public frustration over the war in Iraq makes that argument “harder” when it comes to Iran. “The burden of proof is higher because of Iraq, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be met,” he said.
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