Good News for McCain

[BigRob]

Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight.

And

The Friday-Sunday poll, mostly conducted as Obama was returning from his much-publicized overseas trip and released just this hour, shows McCain now ahead 49%-45% among voters that Gallup believes are most likely to go to the polls in November. In late June, he was behind among likely voters, 50%-44%.

Among registered voters, McCain still trails Obama, but by less. He is behind by 3 percentage points in the new poll (47%-44%) vs. a 6-point disadvantage (48%-42%) in late June.

McCain has brought it to almost dead even, as both are now within the margin of error.

 

[UShadItComing]

You still trust Gallup when two of their polls can be 14 points apart on the same day. I don't have anything in this horserace Rob but I'm worried about US polling right now.

 

[BigRob]

You still trust Gallup when two of their polls can be 14 points apart on the same day. I don't have anything in this horserace Rob but I'm worried about US polling right now.

I think the second part of my statement was what was interesting. The polls do not mean all that much, but the timing of the poll with the timing of the European trip among the voters who are going to swing the election is somewhat telling I think.

I think Obama will back off a lot of those images and focus on solely domestic problems now.

 

[UShadItComing]

Yeah, he was way too uppity in Europe. He appealed to hundreds of thousands of people while McCane was largely ignored on his trip. You have to be fu--ing mad to keep parroting the Hannity/O'Reilly sh-t Rob.

 

[BigRob]

Yeah, he was way too uppity in Europe. He appealed to hundreds of thousands of people while McCane was largely ignored on his trip. You have to be fu--ing mad to keep parroting the Hannity/O'Reilly sh-t Rob.

I do not watch either of those shows so I wouldn't know what they have said. But looking at the poll, and having some campaign experience, that is what I would advise to the candidate.

Obama's numbers are slowing by many accounts and McCain is catching up. I would be telling Obama that people want to hear about domestic issues, not see 200,000 Germans cheering for him.

 

[SW85]

You still trust Gallup when two of their polls can be 14 points apart on the same day. I don't have anything in this horserace Rob but I'm worried about US polling right now.

I haven't seen either poll (though if one was a tracking poll and the other not, it is still possible for both to be accurate with respect to what they're measuring), but there is nothing inconsistent with impeccable polling methodoly to get two polls that are that far apart.

 

[UShadItComing]

I haven't seen either poll (though if one was a tracking poll and the other not, it is still possible for both to be accurate with respect to what they're measuring), but there is nothing inconsistent with impeccable polling methodoly to get two polls that are that far apart.

You could at least bring yourself up to speed on what we're talking about before you start flapping your gums. Why don't you go argue with libs and others of your ilk. You're stinking up the grownup's threads.

 

[SW85]

You could at least bring yourself up to speed on what we're talking about before you start flapping your gums. Why don't you go argue with libs and others of your ilk. You're stinking up the grownup's threads.

I could, but why bother? Either their polling methodology is questionable (it isn't; Gallup's a perfectly reputable pollster) or it isn't. Looking at the results of two polls won't change the well-established methods by which they conduct polls, now will it?

The nature of polling methodology is such that there is always a small chance that the results will be inaccurate, sometimes wildly so.

 

[Sihouette]

If you average all the polls together the conclusion is still the same: The race is indeed very tight.

All it would take now is some upset, some scandal, some dark information to surface about one or the other candidate and the unfortunate one can just hand over the reins without even needing the election in November.

Can you guess who that might be?

 

[BigRob]

If you average all the polls together the conclusion is still the same: The race is indeed very tight.

All it would take now is some upset, some scandal, some dark information to surface about one or the other candidate and the unfortunate one can just hand over the reins without even needing the election in November.

Can you guess who that might be?

I am a little unsure how you think Clinton would walk in with a landslide when she was unable to even win the primary among democrats?

 

[UShadItComing]

The only thing for certain with this pres race is that the next pres is toast regardless of who it is. The US is not hurting enough yet to cause them to come together and start pulling like a team. One thing that is extremely important is that the US starts to cooperate and work with the rest of the world to find solutions for the problems we are facing and I don't know if Obama woiuld be any better at that.

Actually I'm now of the opinion that a congress which can work together across party lines is the only solution, where the necessary changes which need to be made will be the responsibility of both parties. That way both parties will take the blame for the huge necessary negative impact the changes are going to bring about.

Can that happen? It will because it has to happen as far as I can see. on the positive side, the US is resilient. On the negaitive side they are a long, long way from coming to an understanding that their selfish little party is over.

 

[Pandora]

And



McCain has brought it to almost dead even, as both are now within the margin of error.

Today's pole (Saturday August 2d) they are 44 to 44. Obama lost 9 points since he went to Europe to let them know he is the one we have been waiting for.


Can a bounce be backward? Is there a name for that?

 

[top gun]

The polls ebb & flow but almost always Senator Obama is up from 4 to 15 points. These are "samples". Snap shots of a random group. It would not be realistic to expect that every poll taken every time would be in Senator Obama's favor. Polling this far out is like on Civil Court... a preponderance of the evidence is needed to draw some kind of a possible conclusion.

Here's the big overall outlook with the monster spread...

81% in Poll Say Nation Is Headed on Wrong Track
By DAVID LEONHARDT and MARJORIE CONNELLY

Americans are more dissatisfied with the country’s direction than at any time since the New York Times/CBS News poll began asking about the subject in the early 1990s, according to the latest poll.

The New York Times/CBS News Poll

In the poll, 81 percent of respondents said they believed “things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track,” up from 69 percent a year ago and 35 percent in early 2002.

Although the public mood has been darkening since the early days of the war in Iraq, it has taken a new turn for the worse in the last few months, as the economy has seemed to slip into recession. There is now nearly a national consensus that the country faces significant problems.

A majority of nearly every demographic and political group — Democrats and Republicans, men and women, residents of cities and rural areas, college graduates and those who finished only high school — say the United States is headed in the wrong direction. Seventy-eight percent of respondents said the country was worse off than five years ago; just 4 percent said it was better off.

 

[BigRob]

The polls ebb & flow but almost always Senator Obama is up from 4 to 15 points. These are "samples". Snap shots of a random group. It would not be realistic to expect that every poll taken every time would be in Senator Obama's favor. Polling this far out is like on Civil Court... a preponderance of the evidence is needed to draw some kind of a possible conclusion.

Here's the big overall outlook with the monster spread...

81% in Poll Say Nation Is Headed on Wrong Track
By DAVID LEONHARDT and MARJORIE CONNELLY

Americans are more dissatisfied with the country’s direction than at any time since the New York Times/CBS News poll began asking about the subject in the early 1990s, according to the latest poll.

The New York Times/CBS News Poll

In the poll, 81 percent of respondents said they believed “things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track,” up from 69 percent a year ago and 35 percent in early 2002.

Although the public mood has been darkening since the early days of the war in Iraq, it has taken a new turn for the worse in the last few months, as the economy has seemed to slip into recession. There is now nearly a national consensus that the country faces significant problems.

A majority of nearly every demographic and political group — Democrats and Republicans, men and women, residents of cities and rural areas, college graduates and those who finished only high school — say the United States is headed in the wrong direction. Seventy-eight percent of respondents said the country was worse off than five years ago; just 4 percent said it was better off.

This begs the question of why though.

Are we moving in the wrong direction because of the policies Bush followed?
Are we moving in the wrong direction because Obama has been leading in the polls?
Are we moving in the wrong direction because McCain is not leading in some polls?

This polls reminds me of congressional approval ratings. Most often we hear about how they are so low, but when you ask people what they think about their own congressperson, usually the response will not be so negative.

 

[Andy]

The only thing for certain with this pres race is that the next pres is toast regardless of who it is. The US is not hurting enough yet to cause them to come together and start pulling like a team. One thing that is extremely important is that the US starts to cooperate and work with the rest of the world to find solutions for the problems we are facing and I don't know if Obama woiuld be any better at that.

Why must we work with other countries? Many of those countries have goal in opposition to the US. But an even better question... how are we 'not' working with other countries? Last I checked, we still led the world in aid. Even if we're not the world leader, I wager we are still in the top 5. So what exactly, would you have us do?

Actually I'm now of the opinion that a congress which can work together across party lines is the only solution, where the necessary changes which need to be made will be the responsibility of both parties. That way both parties will take the blame for the huge necessary negative impact the changes are going to bring about.

I am not. I think it's impossible for congress to "work together" when their views are completely contary to each other. If they do "work together" it means the people have lost the ability to choose an opposing view.

For example: There is a large faction of people that believe putting a human to death without cause, even if it is not born yet, is murder. There is yet another faction that believes that murder is ok under the view 'it's a womens body'. How would you suggest they 'work together' on this issue?

Another example: There is a large number of people that believe Capitalism, which made America the greatest nation on Earth, should be allowed to continue to provide jobs, grow wealth, and provide the products people want. There is another group that believes that socialism, which is has failed everywhere it's tried in the world today and in the past, should replace this system. How would you suggest they 'work together' on mutually exclusive goals?

Can that happen? It will because it has to happen as far as I can see. on the positive side, the US is resilient. On the negaitive side they are a long, long way from coming to an understanding that their selfish little party is over.

Selfish? We benefit the entire world. The party isn't over just yet. If it is, will be because we followed the world into the hell that is socialism.