In Defense of Capitalism & Free Markets

Well Rick, let me tell you how it went down. Joe Blow, your ave homeowner, went shopping for a re-fi. He visited Countrycide where a "trained professional" (a pimply faced kid just outta HS) promptly talked him into a ARM. Don't worry, he said, you can refi again before the rate adjusts since your home value will go up. But wait, Joe doesn't make enough for the 300K loan, so he is asked, do you have any other income? Well, I made $30 sat mowing a lawn. Perfect! We will just write that down as $300 per mo (the underwriters are too swamped to check) and your good to go. So the kid writes the loan and calls his upline (on the course)-good news, I just wrote a 300K loan! The kid made $3000 that day, the upline decides to do another "9" as he just made $1500 plus whatever his other downlines sold that day. The office got $300 and good news! hey just made the quota on the ARM product that was being pushed by the lender so they all get a trip to Cancun! The district manager made his quota for bundled ARM and got a heafty bonus plus stock options which he promply sells as he knows this is just a house of cards. Countrycide takes the bundled loans has them rated AAA and sells them ASAP to several prearranged buyers who create mort backed loan securities called derivatives, so complex and vast there is no way to follow them. This is when they all got caught "penis in hand". Joe Blow used his equity to buy the biggest SUV on the block, and now cannot afford to fill it. The loan writer got laid off when Countrycide went down having spent all his $$ on surf boards and Honda Civic mufflers he now flips burgers at BK. The upline lost everything including his wifes boob job, which went to his best friend. Everybody on up knew the loans were bad, knew what was going to happen, and put their money in Aruba, quietly leaving via a golden parachute while blaming Joe Blow. Now you can listen to the GOP and blame fannie mae and Clinton, but the loans were made after 2002, so I'm kinda thinkin your just making excuses because you voted for Bush (twice) and cannot tell yourself the truth.
 
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Well Rick, let me tell you how it went down. Joe Blow, your ave homeowner, went shopping for a re-fi. He visited Countrycide where a "trained professional" (a pimply faced kid just outta HS) promptly talked him into a ARM.

Loan Originators (if not a bank) and loan officers (if a bank) are often young. So what? Though I was a Loan Originator in my forties. Sure they could try to persuade people to get one loan versus another - most borrowers are very suspicious and will run if they feel coerced. I personally never knew any LO who did not sell what he thought was best for the customer. An ARM would be a good loan for many people.

Don't worry, he said, you can refi again before the rate adjusts since your home value will go up.
All of us LO's knew that it would be wrong to make promises about what the market would do and could get us into legal trouble if we did. Which is why I knew no one who did it. But if you have links to support the statement show us.

But wait, Joe doesn't make enough for the 300K loan, so he is asked, do you have any other income? Well, I made $30 sat mowing a lawn. Perfect! We will just write that down as $300 per mo (the underwriters are too swamped to check) and your good to go.

Underwriters approve the loan but do not do the fact checking. That job is done by loan processors who are very meticulous people and who do their jobs very well. They check every single detail and have to document every detail with proof or the underwrites will not accept the loan because they know they won't be able to resell it if it is not accurately checked. The most likely scenario is that the person asking for the loan lies about their income and the LO has to go back to them and start over because the processor catches the lie. Banks do not like to make loans to people who lie about their income - it is just good business sense to reject them. What actually happens is that people who do not have the income to justify a loan get what is called a "stated income" loan. In that case, (perhaps if they are self employed) they state what their income is and since they are the only ones who can verify it the processor writes the details down and the underwriters know that the income is unverified by a third source. Because it is a riskier loan it is hard to resell and the person pays a higher interest rate to make up for the higher default rate. The point is it cannot happen the way you described.

So the kid writes the loan and calls his upline (on the course)-good news, I just wrote a 300K loan! The kid made $3000 that day,
A ten percent commission? Get real. Selling loans is very competitive and a ten percent commission is unheard of. 3-5% is standard based on how hard it is to move the loan through the process. At the height of the refi book an LO may have sold a loan for an eighth of point commission. And it is hardly a one day procedure. But you are right that brokers are often on the course - usually trying to convince bankers to let them sell their loans for them.

the upline decides to do another "9" as he just made $1500 plus whatever his other downlines sold that day. The office got $300 and good news! hey just made the quota on the ARM product that was being pushed by the lender so they all get a trip to Cancun! The district manager made his quota for bundled ARM and got a heafty bonus plus stock options which he promply sells as he knows this is just a house of cards. Countrycide takes the bundled loans has them rated AAA and sells them ASAP to several prearranged buyers who create mort backed loan securities called derivatives, so complex and vast there is no way to follow them.
The numbers may be wrong but that may be how banks handled the situation.

And it is true that lenders did push ARM's but on a different day they would have pushed a different loan - it really varied a lot.

This is when they all got caught "penis in hand". Joe Blow used his equity to buy the biggest SUV on the block, and now cannot afford to fill it.
If he had equity then he obviously had the loan and the home for more than a few years and it did increase in value as he was allegedly told. He therefore got exactly what he was promised which included a lower rate on the loan saving him thousands. Later, at the end of the housing boom when people actually got screwed they did not have equity.

The loan writer got laid off when Countrycide went down having spent all his $$ on surf boards and Honda Civic mufflers he now flips burgers at BK.
Yep, everyone knew it was a cyclical business and that it would dry up.

The upline lost everything including his wifes boob job, which went to his best friend.
Yes he knew the risks better than anyone which is why he took 50% of what the sales people sold. That and overhead. If he failed to save any of it then too bad.

Everybody on up knew the loans were bad, knew what was going to happen, and put their money in Aruba, quietly leaving via a golden parachute while blaming Joe Blow.
Which loans? The ARM's? ARM's were not responsible for the mortgage crisis. In fact, neither were any other kind of loan because the rate of default only went up from about a half a percent to about one percent. But standard rhetoric blames subprime loans and not ARM's. A subprime loan is more likely subprime because of the persons credit score and NOT because it is an ARM. But the default rate on all loans is just not high enough to have caused the mortgage crisis.


Now you can listen to the GOP and blame fannie mae and Clinton, but the loans were made after 2002, so I'm kinda thinkin your just making excuses because you voted for Bush (twice) and cannot tell yourself the truth.

Both dems and pubs are demonizing the mortgage industry and using them as a scapegoat. Bad lenders were the smallest piece of the puzzle when it comes to the larger crisis (cause the housing crisis is only one small part). Mac and Mae are more to blame. But congress is even more to blame than all of those.
 
Both dems and pubs are demonizing the mortgage industry and using them as a scapegoat. Bad lenders were the smallest piece of the puzzle when it comes to the larger crisis (cause the housing crisis is only one small part). Mac and Mae are more to blame. But congress is even more to blame than all of those.

You are right, all of these corporations, agencies, and institutions were enablers for the rapid growth in real estate prices. But from what I recall, a whole lot of average citizens got caught up in simple greed. They had been listening to friends who were making a lot of profit (ie, profit on paper). These people were willing to jump into risky situations not knowing what they were doing.

The average Joe does not know how to make any financial calculations about stream of income, present value, etc. etc. They also don't know that real estate has always had its ups and downs. And they didn't didn't appreciate how much money they were playing with when they got involved with real estate.

I could say the same thing about the stock market. If you go into any investment highly leveraged, you are playing with fire - and you had better be prepared to live with the consequences if something goes bad. And those consequences should not be that you loose your residence to foreclosure.

Greed is one of the seven deadly sins that tempts everybody, and something or some situation is always standing ready to offer that temptation.
 
Let's face it. Millions of home loans were made to people who did not qualify for the loans they received.

Shaky credit, high debt-to-income ratio, insufficient income, little to no down payment, etc.,etc.,etc. And Fannie and Freddie guaranteed most of these bad loans, then went begging to the federal government for billions of dollars in bailout money when the house of cards caved in, along with just about every major bank in this country.

So today there are millions of homes that are in foreclosure, and over 1/3 of home sales today are foreclosure sales, not to mention short sales, and not to mention millions of people who are "underwater" on their homes.

The blames lies with irresponsible lenders, and with irresponsible borrowers.
 
Well Rick, let me tell you how it went down. Joe Blow, your ave homeowner, went shopping for a re-fi. He visited Countrycide where a "trained professional" (a pimply faced kid just outta HS) promptly talked him into a ARM. Don't worry, he said, you can refi again before the rate adjusts since your home value will go up. But wait, Joe doesn't make enough for the 300K loan, so he is asked, do you have any other income? Well, I made $30 sat mowing a lawn. Perfect! We will just write that down as $300 per mo (the underwriters are too swamped to check) and your good to go. So the kid writes the loan and calls his upline (on the course)-good news, I just wrote a 300K loan! The kid made $3000 that day, the upline decides to do another "9" as he just made $1500 plus whatever his other downlines sold that day. The office got $300 and good news! hey just made the quota on the ARM product that was being pushed by the lender so they all get a trip to Cancun! The district manager made his quota for bundled ARM and got a heafty bonus plus stock options which he promply sells as he knows this is just a house of cards. Countrycide takes the bundled loans has them rated AAA and sells them ASAP to several prearranged buyers who create mort backed loan securities called derivatives, so complex and vast there is no way to follow them. This is when they all got caught "penis in hand". Joe Blow used his equity to buy the biggest SUV on the block, and now cannot afford to fill it. The loan writer got laid off when Countrycide went down having spent all his $$ on surf boards and Honda Civic mufflers he now flips burgers at BK. The upline lost everything including his wifes boob job, which went to his best friend. Everybody on up knew the loans were bad, knew what was going to happen, and put their money in Aruba, quietly leaving via a golden parachute while blaming Joe Blow. Now you can listen to the GOP and blame fannie mae and Clinton, but the loans were made after 2002, so I'm kinda thinkin your just making excuses because you voted for Bush (twice) and cannot tell yourself the truth.

Joe Blow was a moron, and bad things happen to morons. Before I bought my first house, I got three books on mortgages, read them from cover to cover, and understood everything about them and the borrowing process. Regarding the house itself, I checked into whether there were ever any toxic dumps on the site (it was new housing development). I insisted on doing a radon test before I took possession. I studied cal tech maps of california earthquake fault lines in relation to the property. I checked into the ranking of the local high school. I knew the crime rates were some of the lowest in the country. I even sent the exact latitude and longitude to the US geological survey, and found out that it was on a 500 year flood plain. Lots else. There are trusting souls in this world who inexplicably expect that everyone is looking out for their interests, and then there are people like me.

One last thing: I actually did one of my four refinances at Countrywide. Their operation seemed like a bunch of young people almost having a party, but I don't care if they're an insane asylum if they lend me money on the terms I want. When I showed up to sign loan papers after previous negotiation, they cited a rate half a point above what they had said. When I explained that to them, the young loan officer, who clearly couldn't have cared less about the company's fortunes, said what about I give you a quarter point LESS than what we said, and keep everything else the same. Fine, said I. :D
 
Let's face it. Millions of home loans were made to people who did not qualify for the loans they received.

Shaky credit, high debt-to-income ratio, insufficient income, little to no down payment, etc.,etc.,etc. And Fannie and Freddie guaranteed most of these bad loans, then went begging to the federal government for billions of dollars in bailout money when the house of cards caved in, along with just about every major bank in this country.

So today there are millions of homes that are in foreclosure, and over 1/3 of home sales today are foreclosure sales, not to mention short sales, and not to mention millions of people who are "underwater" on their homes.

The blames lies with irresponsible lenders, and with irresponsible borrowers.

I would suspect that a real unemployment rate of about 20% would have more to do with the foreclosures than the small percent of subprime loans that were made. Subprime loans were a factor that has been overshadowed as the recession bore on.
 
I don't know, maybe you didn't sell in CA. I went to school for 40 hours and took a long test 60 miles away to get my insurance lic. I watched a 15 min video on compliance so I could sell mort for the bank that owned us (my cut was substancially smaller as I was 3rd person) Most of the ARM's were substandard out here, most blew up when the new interest rate hit, or shortly before. And ,yes, although I didn't buy an ARM, it was suggested to me that I could and refi when before the rate adjusts. Every loan officer knew that this was just a matter of time before the poop hit the blades, but they put their own greed over the welfare of their clients and the nation. They commonly use the excuse "caveat emptor"-rings kinda hollow now. Perhaps this is your idea of capitalism, perhaps your idea of fuduciary responsibility jibes with this practice. Here is my thought. Every day you trust a truck driver to know his job, is his truck loaded safely? Proper maintenance done? Refridgeration cold to protect the product (the food you eat)? He knows all these things, you don't, you trust him to know, if he screws up, you can sue and have his job at least. The loan industry has no such accountability, they got away with all of it.
 
Perhaps this is your idea of capitalism
Neither Capitalism nor the Free Market were involved in the housing bubble or resultant financial crisis.
The loan industry has no such accountability, they got away with all of it.
Sounds like the loan industry and the federal government have a lot in common... No wonder they were in bed together before, during, and after the proverbial "poop" hit the fan.
 
I don't know, maybe you didn't sell in CA. I went to school for 40 hours and took a long test 60 miles away to get my insurance lic. I watched a 15 min video on compliance so I could sell mort for the bank that owned us (my cut was substancially smaller as I was 3rd person) Most of the ARM's were substandard out here, most blew up when the new interest rate hit, or shortly before. And ,yes, although I didn't buy an ARM, it was suggested to me that I could and refi when before the rate adjusts.

I've had a series of 30-year fixeds, and ARMs looked like one thing to me from the first time I read about them: BIG RISK. Anyone who was told they would be able to refinance before rates went up, and believed it is a morrrrronnnnnnn. They should have said "Oh dear loan officer - where did you get the crystal ball which allows you to predict interest rates?
 
I don't know, maybe you didn't sell in CA. I went to school for 40 hours and took a long test 60 miles away to get my insurance lic. I watched a 15 min video on compliance so I could sell mort for the bank that owned us (my cut was substancially smaller as I was 3rd person) Most of the ARM's were substandard out here, most blew up when the new interest rate hit, or shortly before. And ,yes, although I didn't buy an ARM, it was suggested to me that I could and refi when before the rate adjusts. Every loan officer knew that this was just a matter of time before the poop hit the blades, but they put their own greed over the welfare of their clients and the nation. They commonly use the excuse "caveat emptor"-rings kinda hollow now. Perhaps this is your idea of capitalism, perhaps your idea of fuduciary responsibility jibes with this practice. Here is my thought. Every day you trust a truck driver to know his job, is his truck loaded safely? Proper maintenance done? Refridgeration cold to protect the product (the food you eat)? He knows all these things, you don't, you trust him to know, if he screws up, you can sue and have his job at least. The loan industry has no such accountability, they got away with all of it.

No, I sold in Ill. and I understand the Ill. law on ARMs is more strict than other states. For example, in Ill an ARM can only adjust a little bit at a time and only for a total of a certain amount. We also have every borrower sign a paper that describes the ARM and the interest rate in language that the government wrote. I personally find the language the gov wrote to be more confusing that the stuff that was prepared in the lenders contract.

You can say "caveat emptor" all you want but to tell someone that such and such is going to happen when you don't know it is fraud and there are no legal protections against fraud, at least in the brokers industry.

The dirty little secret is that lenders who are brokers go through a lot more to get licensed than lenders who are banks, they get regulated more too. But I doubt that bankers have protection against saying fraudulent things.

The regulations and special paperwork do little to protect the borrowers but it does drive up the price. Meanwhile protection against fraud is what they really need. If the gov is not doing that job then we need to rethink government not lenders.
 
I've had a series of 30-year fixeds, and ARMs looked like one thing to me from the first time I read about them: BIG RISK. Anyone who was told they would be able to refinance before rates went up, and believed it is a morrrrronnnnnnn. They should have said "Oh dear loan officer - where did you get the crystal ball which allows you to predict interest rates?

Yes the person should have said that. It does not take a rocket scientist to know that lenders don't know what rates will do in a few years. One of the reasons to take an ARM is specifically because one thinks rates are going to go up. But if a person is stupid they should still have protection against fraud.

For all the complaints against ARMs they are still a good tool for many people and those same people who might complain that their rate went up would still have an average rate that is lower than the average rate that the person with the fixed year loan got.

As a simplistic example, if an ARM has a 3% rate for 7 years and then adjust to 7% that is still better than the person who had the 7% for the full time. If the person was not lied to and they hoped that their salary was going to be high enough in 7 years to afford the higher payments was wrong - well, they still had seven years of a lower rate.
 
As a simplistic example, if an ARM has a 3% rate for 7 years and then adjust to 7% that is still better than the person who had the 7% for the full time. If the person was not lied to and they hoped that their salary was going to be high enough in 7 years to afford the higher payments was wrong - well, they still had seven years of a lower rate.

Recalling back 40 years when I bought my first house, I can remember thinking, "Why is this so complicated". If I recall, ARMs did not even in existence then. But they had FHA mortgages that the house had to qualify for; and VA loans that the house had to qualify for, too. Plus, my Real Estate broker took back a second trust deed (at 12% interest), just so I could afford to get into the house.

I have used ARM's, I have used assumable VA loans, I have used short sales, and many other tricks to buy real estate since then. If you add them all up, you get fertile ground for a speculative housing boom - and bust.

I truly believe the days of the old Federal Savings and Loan were the best. For many, many years you went into the neighborhood S&L, and you got a good rate, fixed rate, housing loan. Nothing fancy. They always had money because they paid a higher interest rate on your savings account.

The idea that someone can go into a bank and get a low interest loan for 7 years and later have it bounce to a much higher rate is the first step toward trouble. Later, the big temptation is to get a home equity loan, etc.

All it takes is one unforeseen problem and the whole inverted pyramid falls apart. The bread-winner of the family has a prolonged sickness, gets a divorce - many unforeseen problems can happen in life, and the first thing that falls apart is a highly leveraged house loan.

You want a house? Here's your 30-year loan at 4.5% interest. Make double payments each month and you will pay it of in 10 years. That's it. No tricks, no gimmicks, just a straight loan. That is the lesson we learned in 1930 and had to re-learn in 2007. Don't screw with your house loan!!
 
About 20% of all mortgages are subprime mortgages. That's a lot more than a "small percent", isn't it?

My mistake (I don't know the percent that are subprimes now). I had meant to limit it to the number of subprimes that defaulted. Additionally, I would have to say that as of right now I also don't know how large the number of subprimes that have defaulted is.

But back when the housing bubble burst the number of homes in foreclosure was less than one percent and the number of them that were subprimes were less than that. The number of defaults during the burst increased a "whole lot" to about one percent. It would be silly to blame the burst on an increase in defaults that went from less than one half to about one percent.

As of today the number of homes that are foreclosed on is much higher, again mostly to do with high unemployment, rather than subprime loans.
 
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My mistake (I don't know the percent that are subprimes now). I had meant to limit it to the number of subprimes that defaulted. Additionally, I would have to say that as of right now I also don't know how large the number of subprimes that have defaulted is.

But back when the housing bubble burst the number of homes in foreclosure was less than one percent and the number of them that were subprimes were less than that. The number of defaults during the burst increased a "whole lot" to about one percent. It would be silly to blame the burst on an increase in defaults that went from less than one half to about one percent.

As of today the number of homes that are foreclosed on is much higher, again mostly to do with high unemployment, rather than subprime loans.

No doubt that high unemployment is the chief reason why millions of homes are in foreclosure, but people who are underemployed, people who are carrying too much debt, and people who took advantage of the "easy money" that was available for so many years, are also to blame for the abysmal housing market.

Then we also have short sales and "underwater" homes, due to the glut of foreclosures that have helped to drive the price of homes at or below "pre-bubble" values.

We are among the people who are having a heckuva time selling our home, even though we have dropped the price by 35% since we listed it.
 
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