New Orleans evacuates for Gustav

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The Scotsman

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NEW ORLEANS (Reuters) - Tens of thousands of people in New Orleans and the U.S. Gulf Coast fled their homes on Sunday as Hurricane Gustav moved within 24 hours of striking land, possibly with a weaker punch than 2005's Hurricane Katrina.

The oil industry from Texas to New Orleans was taking no chances either, shutting down nearly all offshore platforms and many refineries as Gustav threatened the region that pumps a quarter of the U.S. oil supply.

New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin ordered mandatory evacuation of the city of 239,000 and told residents "This is still a big, ugly storm, still strong and I encourage everyone to leave."

The storm evoked memories of Katrina which struck almost exactly three years ago, flooding 80 percent of the city, killing 1,500 people in five states and costing $80 billion (44 billion pounds).

Nagin warned anyone who defied evacuation orders they would face extreme danger. Travel trailers that had housed some of those displaced by Katrina might "become projectiles" in the hurricane-force winds. He laid down a dusk-to-dawn curfew and told looters they would be sent straight to prison.

Gustav also took centre stage in U.S. politics two months ahead of the hotly contested presidential election.

President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney, accused of a slow and botched response to Katrina's chaos, said they would not attend this week's Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minnesota. Bush will travel to Texas on Monday to oversee emergency efforts.

Republican presidential nominee John McCain headed to the Gulf to survey preparations and Republicans considered shortening the event.

By most accounts, evacuations from New Orleans and other coastal cities were proceeding smoothly although traffic was moving slowly on clogged highways. More than 11.5 million residents in five states could feel the impact of the storm.

The U.S. Coast Guard reported the first storm-related death in Florida, where a man fell overboard as his ship ran into heavy waves.

If, as currently predicted, Gustav lands west of New Orleans on Monday as a Category 4 hurricane with wind speeds up to 155 mph (249 kph), its 16-foot (5-metre) storm surge could break through the same levees that failed three year ago.

Federal officials say the levees protecting New Orleans are stronger now but still have gaps.

New Orleans resident Vanessa Jones, 50, said she had planned to stay but changed her mind after watching the news all night.

"I can't take a chance because so many people died in Katrina," Jones said as she prepared to board a bus headed to an unknown destination.

Katrina was a Category 3 when its 28-foot (8.5 metre) storm surge burst levees on August 29, 2005. New Orleans degenerated into chaos as stranded storm victims waited days for government rescue and law and order collapsed.

HOLD-OUTS HUNKER DOWN

Thousands of people, still carrying emotional scars from Katrina, jammed highways out of New Orleans. The government lined up trains and hundreds of buses to evacuate 30,000 people who could not leave on their own and Nagin said 15,000 had been removed from the city, including hundreds in wheelchairs.

Residents boarded up the windows of their shops and homes before leaving town, while others hunkered down as "hold-outs" with stockpiled food, water and shotguns to ward off looters.

"I saw quite a bit of looting last time with Katrina, even 30 minutes after the winds had stopped," said construction contractor Norwood Thornton, who opted to stay behind to protect his home in New Orleans' historic Garden District.

Gustav weakened to a still dangerous Category 3 storm after it passed over Cuba. It killed at least 86 people in the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica.

But the latest warnings from the National Hurricane centre brought some relief with signs that the storm was weakening slightly and sucking up less power over the warm Gulf water that made Katrina an explosive Category 5 as it moved north.

Katrina and Hurricane Rita, which followed it three weeks later, wrecked more than 100 Gulf oil platforms, but Gustav could deal a harsher blow.

In a special trading session to accommodate the Labor Day holiday Monday and the storm's impact, U.S. crude oil features rose nearly $3 to over $118 per barrel.

"It remains likely that Gustav will prove to become a worst case scenario for the producing region and places the heart of the oil production region under a high risk of sustaining significant or major damage," said Planalytics analyst Jim Roullier.

As Gustav swirled through the Gulf, forecasters also kept an eye on Tropical Storm Hanna, in the Atlantic Ocean about 145 miles (230 km) north-northeast of Grand Turk Island.

It was moving west-northwest with top sustained winds of 50 mph (85 kph) and could strengthen during the next couple of days, the hurricane centre said. The storm might eventually threaten Florida but its path was constantly changing.


(Additional reporting by Tom Brown in Miami and Bruce Nichols, Chris Baltimore and Erwin Seba in Houston; Writing by Mary Milliken; editing by Mohammad Zargham).

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FACTBOX - Possible scenarios for Hurricane Gustav

(Reuters) - As Hurricane Gustav marches across the Gulf of Mexico for its eventual collision with the U.S. Gulf Coast on Monday, its strength and where it makes landfall are still moving targets. Here are some possible scenarios on what happens next:

STRENGTH: Some weather forecasters are still predicting Gustav will hit the Gulf Coast as a damaging Category 4 hurricane with wind speeds of up to 155 mph (249 kph). Others point out the storm lost strength over Cuba and its relatively fast movement across the Gulf of Mexico could deprive it of the ability to gather energy and speed from warm water, making it a Category 3 storm.

The storm is expected to come ashore west of New Orleans in the early hours of Monday, and the Louisiana coast could begin to see rains and wind from the sweeping storm on Sunday evening, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.

In comparison, Katrina was a catastrophic Category 5 storm -- the highest on the five-step rating scale -- as it moved across the Gulf of Mexico and made landfall as a Category 3 storm.

LANDFALL: The storm's current track also makes it hard to predict where it will strike the coast. New Orleans' evacuation has been center-stage, but Gustav's "cone of uncertainty" means it could hit anywhere from South Texas to the Alabama-Mississippi border. On Sunday morning, the storm was about 325 miles (520 km) southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

The storm's wide sweep puts the majority of the U.S. oil patch in the cross hairs. The Gulf of Mexico produces about a quarter of U.S. energy supply, and about one-third of U.S. capacity to refine crude oil into gasoline, jet fuel and other essential products is nestled at refineries along the flood-prone coast.

ENERGY IMPACT: Oil analysts say storm-related supply concerns from Gustav could add $10 to U.S. crude oil prices -- which at recent levels near $115 a barrel are still far short of the record $147.27 set on July 11.

The U.S. Department of Energy has said it is ready to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the event Gustav causes a severe production disruption. But if refineries are closed due to flooding, they will not be able to convert the emergency crude oil supply to usable products.

NEXT STORM: Looking forward to the next incoming storm, Tropical Storm Hanna, now looming off Florida, could threaten the state's crops of fruits and vegetables if it dumps massive amounts of rain on farmlands. Tropical Storm Fay in August dropped more rain on Florida than any other previous tropical storm, saturating the ground and raising the possibility of serious flooding.

(Reporting by Chris Baltimore; Editing by Mary Milliken and Peter Cooney)
 
For any of the Believers among us, PLEASE take a moment and send up a prayer for the people of the Gulf Coast, they'll need 'em.
 
My best wishes are with them. I hope most took the right advice and left town, now if only the levees will hold is the real question.
 
$10-30bn losses from Gustav predicted

1 September, 2008

Gustav to strike New Orleans later today. Dangerous storm surge expected.

At 0900hrs GMT, the centre of Hurricane Gustav was at Latitude 28.4N Longitude 89.5W. That is about 115miles south-southeast of New Orleans, which is evacuating citizens and bracing itself for a repeat of Hurricane Katrina of 2005.

Gustav is moving toward the northwest at 16mph.

There is apparent disagreement among forecasters as to whether Gustav will strengthen to a CAT 4 hurricane. The US National Hurricane Center said this morning that "No significant change in strength is likely before landfall," adding that "weakening is expected to begin after Gustav moves inland later today."

But modelling firm EQECAT earlier predicted that "If Gustav continues as forecasted and makes landfall as a category 4 storm near NWS 23 milepost 620 (an approximate landfall location that refers to a storm ID system used in EQECAT's model) insured losses could be around $20bn ($10 to $30bn)."

However, EQECAT added that: "If Gustav tracks to the west, losses are expected in the $10bn to $15bn range. If Gustav tracks to the east (causing greater impact on New Orleans, etc) losses could easily exceed $25bn or more. Similarly in the offshore energy sector, storms tracking further to the west will be expected to cause proportionally more damage to gas production, tracking to the east will cause proportionally more damage to oil production."

Gustav's path over the LOOP current, an area of extremely warm waters, led forecasters to predict strengthening.

A storm surge of 18 to 25 feet, to the right (east) of landfall, would be above the design level of the levees around New Orleans. "Significant wave heights (the height of the top one-third of waves) in the Gulf are forecasted to be as high as 30 feet - rogue waves could reach 60 feet, consistent with some of the waves seen from Katrina," EQECAT said.

"The landfalling track is closely paralleled by Hurricane Betsy (1965)," EQECAT added. Offshore Betsy was an intensity 4 storm but weakened and made landfall as an intensity 3 storm. The surge from Betsy caused significant flooding and damages in the New Orleans area.


keep your heads down and good luck guys!
 
Gustav update:


Hurricane Gustav Strikes Land West of New Orleans

Hurricane Gustav made landfall on the Louisiana coast on
Monday, and it appeared that the brunt of the storm was
passing to the west of New Orleans, making officials
optimistic that the city would be spared destruction on the
scale of Hurricane Katrina three years ago.




caring thoughts going to everyone affected.
 
Hurricane Gustav tests New Orleans levees

NEW ORLEANS (Reuters) - Hurricane Gustav slammed ashore on the U.S. Gulf Coast just west of New Orleans on Monday, hammering the city devastated by Katrina in 2005 with surging floodwaters that threatened its rebuilt levees.

The storm was weaker than had been feared. But waves splashed over floodwalls containing the New Orleans Industrial Canal, triggering a tense watch over the barrier system that failed three years ago, flooding 80 percent of the city and stranding thousands of people.

Six inches (15 cm) of water pooled in some streets near the canal, and troops prepared to evacuate residents. But the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said the levees had not been breached and city pumps were able to keep up with the flooding.

A National Guard official said the Department of Defense had authorized up to 50,000 troops to help with rescue, clean-up and the possibility of looting.

The storm roared through the heart of the U.S. Gulf oilpatch but oil and natural gas prices plunged as Gustav weakened to a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph (177 kph) winds before landfall, easing fears of serious supply disruptions that had put energy markets on edge.

Oil companies had shut down nearly all production in the region, which normally pumps a quarter of U.S. oil output and 15 percent of its natural gas.

Nearly 2 million people fled the Gulf Coast as Gustav approached and only 10,000 were believed to have remained in New Orleans.

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal warned residents it was too early to sound the all-clear because floodwaters could take hours to recede.

"Just because the storm is moving over your area, do not think that the tidal surge impacts are yet over," he said.

By mid-afternoon the Louisiana National Guard reported only minor street flooding in New Orleans and the Army Corps of Engineers said the water levels had receded slightly in the Industrial Canal. The storm weakened to a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph (145 kph) winds as it moved inland.

"All in all we think we are in pretty good shape, though we are not through yet," Corps Col. Jeff Bedey said.

Some officials noted that catastrophic breaches in the city's levees occurred a day after Katrina departed.

'NO PUNCH'

Hurricane Gustav also took centre stage in U.S. politics. The Republicans opened their convention on Monday to nominate presidential candidate John McCain with a bare-bones program stripped of the usual pomp and circumstance.

A dangerous Category 4 hurricane a few days ago, Gustav hit shore near Cocodrie, Louisiana, about 70 miles (115 km) southwest of New Orleans, as a Category 2 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity, one step below Katrina's strength when it made landfall.

Wind ripped through the city, knocking down trees, tearing down shop awnings and bowling trash cans through all but deserted streets.

"Gustav doesn't have no punch," pool builder Randall Dreher said, head bowed into the gale. "I went through Katrina and this is totally different. It's weak."

About 500,000 homes and businesses were without power in Louisiana, the governor said.

Natural gas futures dropped over 6 percent and oil fell about 4 percent on Monday on expectations that the storm would largely spare production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico. Katrina and Hurricane Rita, which followed it three weeks later, wrecked more than 100 Gulf oil platforms.

The storm was expected to trigger significant insurance claims. EQECAT Inc., which helps insurers model catastrophe risk, said it estimated insured losses at $6 billion (3.3 billion pounds) to $10 billion. Katrina's insured losses were more than $40 billion and total damage was more than $80 billion, making it the costliest hurricane in U.S. history.

Gustav was likely to toss a dangerous storm surge of up to 14 feet (4.3 metres) of water ashore, forecasters said.

Hurricane Katrina, which killed some 1,500 people in New Orleans and other parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast, brought a 28-foot (8.5 metre) storm surge that burst New Orleans levees on August 29, 2005.

The city degenerated into chaos as stranded storm victims waited days for government rescue and law and order collapsed.

BUSH'S RESPONSE

President George W. Bush, who was heavily criticized for the slow Katrina relief efforts, cancelled his appearance at the Republican convention and travelled to Texas to oversee emergency response efforts to Gustav.

McCain, facing Democrat Barack Obama in November's election, went to Mississippi on Sunday to survey preparations and ordered political speeches cancelled on Monday for his nominating convention, apparently concerned that television images of a choreographed Republican celebration while the storm was hitting Louisiana would be seen as out of touch.

In its run through the Caribbean, Gustav earlier killed at least 96 people in the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica.

The U.S. Coast Guard reported the first storm-related death in Florida on Sunday, where a man fell off his boat.

As Gustav blasted through Louisiana, Tropical Storm Hanna grew to hurricane strength near the southeast Bahamas and could threaten the U.S. east coast from Florida to the Carolinas. And a new tropical depression formed in the Atlantic, and could become a tropical storm on Monday, the hurricane centre said.

(Additional reporting by Tom Brown in Miami, Lilla Zuill in New York and Bruce Nichols, Chris Baltimore and Erwin Seba in Houston; Writing by Jim Loney; Editing by Mary Milliken and Frances Kerry)

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20080901/tts-uk-storm-gustav-b0d3c37.html

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Gustav was no Katrina

2 September, 2008

Loss estimates revised down, as modeling firms count the cost of Hurricane Gustav.
Fears that Gustav could be another Katrina proved misplaced. Gustav turned out to be both smaller and weaker than Katrina at landfall.

“Since landfall, the center of Gustav has moved inland and already winds are diminishing,” said Dr. Peter Dailey, director of atmospheric science at AIR. “On Tuesday, Gustav is expected to be a tropical depression and slowing to a crawl across northeast Texas where it could dump as much as 20 inches of rain in some locations.”

Hurricane Gustav made landfall yesterday about 70 miles west of New Orleans as a strong CAT 2 hurricane, weakening from a CAT 3 hurricane prior to landfall.

Maximum sustained winds at landfall were about 110 mph. While this meant that property wind damage should be less than expected, the fact that it reached category 3 offshore influenced the tidal surge.

Flooding was reported in New Orleans’ Lower Ninth Ward after waves overcame a stretch of several hundred yards of the Industrial Canal’s floodwall. About half the streets in the ward are under ankle- to knee-deep water. However, according to the Army Corps of Engineers, the overtopping does not pose a major threat and pumping stations are operating. The levee failed during Katrina but has since been strengthened.

Earlier, winds peaked at 150 mph after Gustav exited Cuba, but it dropped to CAT 3 level winds for most of the transit across the Gulf of Mexico. The highest seas are estimated to have been 32 feet, high enough to do damage to platforms in the Gulf. Last night natural catastrophe modelling firm EQECAT estimated onshore property damages (industry loss) at from $6bn to $10bn, much lower than the $10bn to $30bn range EQECAT estimated earlier in the day when Gustav as expected to make landfall as a CAT 4 hurricane.

Rival modelling firm AIR estimates that insured losses to onshore properties in the U.S. as between $2bn and $4.5bn, with an expected loss of $3 billion. These loss estimates do not account for any flooding that may yet result from the breach of natural defenses such as levees, AIR explained.

“Hurricane Gustav not only failed to reintensify during its passage through the Gulf of Mexico, it actually weakened slightly just before landfall,” said Dr. Peter Dailey of AIR. “For much of Gustav’s journey through the northern Gulf of Mexico, Gustav's intensity was regulated by the ingestion of dry air from the west, limiting its ability to reintensify. Heat content in the Gulf waters along the U.S. coastline is significantly cooler and shallower than in the central Gulf, which also prevented the storm from gaining strength.”

RMS, another major modelling firm, put insured losses from Hurricane Gustav at between $4bn and $10bn. This includes both on and offshore losses from wind and storm surge, and does not take account of any potential damage to the levees in New Orleans, or flooding from excessive rainfall which may occur in the following days.

OFFSHORE

Offshore energy losses are more difficult to estimate than onshore. EQECAT estimates that production lost in the Gulf will be approximately 25 million barrels of oil and 200 billion cubic feet of natural gas. EQECAT said that these figures are an integration of the expected initial loss in production due to damage, plus the expected ramp-up in production as damage is repaired, over the next 12 months. The price of oil is currently $115 per barrel, and the price of gas is $7.5 per thousand cubic feet. EQECAT therefore calculates a loss figure exceeding $4bn. However, as EQECAT points out, insurance contracts do not necessarily cover all (or any) lost production, and when they do they may not cover it at this price, so insured losses are expected to be a fraction of this figure. “In prior events, the ratio of property / other coverage losses to has been about 1:1,” EQECAT added.

RMS estimates the range for offshore damage to oil platforms and wells, as well as production interruptions caused by wind and waves, as between $1bn and $3bn.
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So thankfully no where near as bad as predicted!
 
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