- Mar 23, 2007
Do you guys think that China will eventually replace the USA and essentially have the power the USA currently holds (not just economically but perhaps militarily as well).
While I agree with the your overarching opinion, that the USA is going to stay on top for a while, I believe the USA is definitely not as "strong" as it used to be and I must admit that I'm a bit skeptical about the future.
Japan and China literally support our national debt (through Treasuries) and so they are gaining a lot more power that allows them negotiate terms that favor them. Additionally, because the USA is in quite a deficit countries like China will begin to not take the dollar as easily as they have done in the past.
I am not as optimistic because if China's economy is to continue its current trend (about 8% real GDP growth since 1997) it will put a lot of weight on the world as a whole particularly in terms of energy consumption. All the pollution coming from China will literally render the environment useless if we do nothing to solve this great problem. This alone makes me a skeptic and it’s not because China could end up replacing the USA but because there will be no USA to replace--in terms of the environment I think places like China are especially dangerous because there are virtually no regulations in place.
I did read all your posts but I still think that in the past we almost dictated everything to China and now it is really starting to be more of a negotiation.
In the end, I do see China as a big potential threat to the USA not because the USA itself is not doing relatively well but because China is growing so fast that things could easily get out of hand--creating problems faster than we can solve them.
While I can see why you are optimistic I am more interested in your reasoning as to why you see India as a bigger threat.