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US Economic crash coming.

Discussion in 'U.S. Politics' started by Andy, Dec 23, 2008.

  1. Andy

    Andy Well-Known Member

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    I just read an interesting economic article on the US economy.

    I think Obama has one chance to not have his entire administration defined by an economic crash. Currently we are printing money like mad. Worse we have some of the lowest interest rates ever. Both of these are compounding negatives.

    Low interest rates make borrowing money cheaper, which increases inflation. Further, the printing of money also causes inflation.

    Both must be reversed in order to prevent massive inflation that will cripple an already weak economy.

    Unfortunately, Obama's plans thus far are the opposite. He has openly supported low interest rates to spur borrowing (the very thing that got us into this mess, and the last thing we need more of), and purposes more bail-outs and more spending (which is forcing us to print money already).

    I'm not all that hopeful Obama will change the direction of our government.
     
  2. Mr. Shaman

    Mr. Shaman New Member

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    Not to worry.

    He had the good-sense to hire successful economic-advisors....

    BILL'S CREW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    .....Which brings us to the Dumbya Years.......​
     
  3. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Well-Known Member

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    Politicians are not in control of the situation they are merely observers so they should just be happy they are getting good salary and a nice big fat gold plated pension at the end of their terms.
     
  4. Pidgey

    Pidgey Well-Known Member

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    I don't think they'll be able to get anywhere this time by applying hedonics to the CPI like they did last time.​
     
  5. top gun

    top gun New Member

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    US ECONOMIC CRASH COMING... US ECONOMIC CRASH COMING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:eek:

    Have ya been living on Jupiter or something Andy?

    George Bush and the Republicans shot our economy up with a full auto M-16... then stabbed it about 100 times... then doused it in gasoline and set it on fire... then put the fire out with acid... then swept it up and scattered the toxic ashes all over the world... all as he staged himself to run out the back door sayin' SEE Y'ALL... he...he!:eek:

    And Andy you're seriously gonna attempt to try and sell somebody the malarkey that this recession that's been confirmed by experts to have started over a year ago is President-elect Obama, who won't even be in office until the end of next month, fault.

    This year was the start of the GEORGE BUSH DEPRESSION OF 2008 and the whole world knows it!
     
  6. Pidgey

    Pidgey Well-Known Member

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    Tell you what... ponder on this little tidbit for awhile:

    [​IMG]

    (graph from www.MarkTAW.com)

    If the other countries of the world decouple from the dollar, that would mean that we might have to pay them in something like... say... gold, in order to make big purchases. That said, why is it that our national debt in terms of ounces of gold rose so sharply (virtually doubling) during the Clinton years?

    Just a question...
     
  7. Andy

    Andy Well-Known Member

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    The economic growth rate for this quarter is still estimated to be 2.5%. So... according to you, it's possible to be a "depression" while having 2.5% economic growth? Further, it's possible to reach a "depression", when we have yet to have a "recession" which requires two consecutive quarters with negative growth?

    You don't know much about economics, do you?
     
  8. Andy

    Andy Well-Known Member

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    So your "hope and change" is to go back 10 years, and hire Bill Clintons's crew, which caused the sub-prime loan crash? Brilliant...
     
  9. foggedinn

    foggedinn New Member

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    I get the impression your dealing with outdated or falsified information.

    Last figures I saw for estimated GDP in Q4 is -6%.
     
  10. Andy

    Andy Well-Known Member

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    As you are absolutely correct. It is expected to be negative. Which would make this the very first time in 8 years that we have had two consecutive quarters of negative growth (assuming that it does end up negative which is likely now), and thus starting January, we would in fact be in a recession.

    This should point out the utter stupidity of the bail-out. It simply did not work, contrary to what Obama claims.

    Of course the idea we're in a depression is still fruity. A depression requires multiple years of consistent negative growth.

    2006 was positive 2.8%
    2007 was positive 2.0%
    2008 will be 0.0% if the growth rate is -3.3% for Q4.

    If the negative growth rate is less than -3.3% for Q4, then we'll be negative for the year. If '09 is negative as well, then we would then be in a depression by 2010.
     
  11. Pidgey

    Pidgey Well-Known Member

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    I suppose it's going to be pretty dicey trying to figure that out when all is said and done. Watching the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the Slosh Report, the BASENS, the LIBOR, world monthly oil production numbers, and a few other arcane factors, my predictions are pretty dismal.

    Lemme' tell you just how bad it really is: even Freddy's predictions for Peak Oil have been dropping significantly all year. Now... that's bad. Consider this: why would a bank want to make a long-term loan for anything if it knew beyond a shadow of a doubt that it couldn't be paid off? Right there's your problem right now for the finance side of the actual economy. I don't give a damn who's in charge of the country at this point as it's not going to matter.
     
  12. Andy

    Andy Well-Known Member

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    Oh that's an easy one. Why would banks make loans they know might not be paid back? Because they know Bailout Barack will pay them.

    Bank of America, for example, reported a drop in profit due to bad loans, collected $15 Billion from the socialist bailout, and used it to buy a 20% chunk of China Construction Bank. Pretty sweet deal from a business perspective eh? Make really bad loans, and have the government give you billions to buy another bank. That's a darn good plan! Horrible for tax payers, but great for stupid politicians to look like their helping the economy.

    Or PNC Financial Services Group Inc, used it's $5.2 Billion bailout to buy National City.

    JP Morgan Chase, stated they fully intend to us the $25 Billion they got, to acquire other businesses.

    In other words, the bailout had made it so that it pays to make bad loans.
     
  13. Dawkinsrocks

    Dawkinsrocks Well-Known Member

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    Andy, I am not sure if you are aware (at all actually) of the fact that the banks did what they did long before the election and before they knew who would win.

    But let us suppose for a brief moment that you are right.

    You are saying that the banks, which are well known to be run by conservatives deliberately set out to destroy the US economy.

    Maybe they just thought they would follow the example set by Bush.

    What is certain is that the conservative bankers and the conservative Bush have dropped America so deep in the **** that you will be swimming in it for years.

    And there you will be, with **** floating around your ears blaming Obama for a mess that happened before he was elected.

    And didn't you say on a different thread that liberals are the most ignorant people on earth?

    Oh dear.
     
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