Casualties

[Beetle Bailey]

If the current level of combat continues in Iraq, by election time we will have suffered an additional 1500 killed and 10,000 wounded, approximately. Since it is a virtual certainty that who ever is elected president will withdraw from Iraq; I wonder what the point is. I wonder how many people still believe this is a worth while sacrifice?

 

[USMC the Almighty]

If the current level of combat continues in Iraq, by election time we will have suffered an additional 1500 killed and 10,000 wounded, approximately. Since it is a virtual certainty that who ever is elected president will withdraw from Iraq; I wonder what the point is. I wonder how many people still believe this is a worth while sacrifice?

There are a number of problems with this statement. First, U.S. Forces are currently engaged in an intense offensive (Op. Arrowhead Ripper) so the U.S. casualty rates are a bit inflated right now but hopefully after the offensive, U.S. casualties will decrease significantly and overall violence will go down.

Secondly, it is not a given that the next President will pull out of Iraq. As a matter of fact, every Republican (other than Paul) is on record saying that immediate surrender is not an option. Right now, the odds of a Republican getting elected are around 45%, give or take -- far from a "virtual certainty".

 

[Beetle Bailey]

There are a number of problems with this statement. First, U.S. Forces are currently engaged in an intense offensive (Op. Arrowhead Ripper) so the U.S. casualty rates are a bit inflated right now but hopefully after the offensive, U.S. casualties will decrease significantly and overall violence will go down.

Secondly, it is not a given that the next President will pull out of Iraq. As a matter of fact, every Republican (other than Paul) is on record saying that immediate surrender is not an option. Right now, the odds of a Republican getting elected are around 45%, give or take -- far from a "virtual certainty".

If the Republican candidate for president were to run on a platform that included staying in Iraq for an indefinate period, 45% would drop to about 30%. Don't you think?

 

[USMC the Almighty]

If the Republican candidate for president were to run on a platform that included staying in Iraq for an indefinate period, 45% would drop to about 30%.

The polls say otherwise. Yes, President Bush is unpopular based primarily on the war. His numbers are around 27%. However, the Democratic Congress has a 23% approval rating and they are, at least in name, anti-war.

 

[vyo476]

If the current level of combat continues in Iraq, by election time we will have suffered an additional 1500 killed and 10,000 wounded, approximately.

Just for the sake of my curiosity, how'd you arrive at these figures?

Since it is a virtual certainty that who ever is elected president will withdraw from Iraq;

Uh...McCain? Giuliani? Even Hillary's admitted that the US presence in Iraq may continue for years.

I wonder what the point is. I wonder how many people still believe this is a worth while sacrifice?

About 27% of America.

 

[Beetle Bailey]

Just for the sake of my curiosity, how'd you arrive at these figures?



Uh...McCain? Giuliani? Even Hillary's admitted that the US presence in Iraq may continue for years.



About 27% of America.

You have to be kidding. How is it that the simplest of equations confound some people? Look at the casualty figures so far. We have four years worth on which to base an average. The figures I gave are extremely conservative ones. Not even taking into account the recent "surge". The actual figuers will probably be higher, as no one predicts rapid improvement in the Iraq situation. As for the election. No one will be elected president who runs on a platform that includes staying in Iraq. That much is obvious.

 

[Beetle Bailey]

Check DOD statistics. The average death rate in Iraq over the last four years is 2.48 US service people per day. Currently. That figure could easily change.

 

[USMC the Almighty]

As for the election. No one will be elected president who runs on a platform that includes staying in Iraq. That much is obvious.

Look at the polls. Guliani, who has said time and again that he will not retreat from Iraq, is edging out the Dems.

 

[top gun]

Look at the polls. Guliani, who has said time and again that he will not retreat from Iraq, is edging out the Dems.

That's not the polls I've seen but regardless I think as the election gets closer the occupation will have an even greater disapproval rating and those not adamantly Left or Right will go with the candidate most likely to withdraw US forces.

Just my opinion... but the "wars" negative numbers have tracked steadily down all through the occupation. I see no reason why this would change. The region will be no more stable... possibly less stable come election time.

 

[USMC the Almighty]

That's not the polls I've seen but regardless I think as the election gets closer the occupation will have an even greater disapproval rating and those not adamantly Left or Right will go with the candidate most likely to withdraw US forces.

Just my opinion... but the "wars" negative numbers have tracked steadily down all through the occupation. I see no reason why this would change.

It's well-established that about 45% of the country are solidly Democratic and 45% is solidly Republican. This will never change, save for another Reagan figure, in my lifetime. The country is just too partisan.

By most estimates I've read, at least 2-4% of these swing voters are conservative libertarians who either vote Republican or don't vote at all. For these people, the war is not the main issue. In fact, for most of the country, the war is not the main issue.

When it all comes down to it, unless you have friends or family in Iraq, the war really has no day-to-day impact on the average American's life. But taxes and illegal immigration certainly do. Furthermore, I would be very surprised if the majority of Americans voted for a candidate who ran on a platform of surrender.

I'm not saying that the Republicans are definitely going to win. I would even venture to say that if the election was tomorrow, the Democrats have a better than even chance of winning the election. Still, a lot can happen between the summer of '07 and the fall of '08.

The region will be no more stable... possibly less stable come election time.