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What will happen if we Withdraw from Iraq

Discussion in 'Polls' started by Hard Driver, Sep 3, 2007.

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What would happen if we withdraw from Iraq?

  1. Peace would happen quickly with the end of the insurgancy

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. Al Qeada would take over creating a terrorist state

    2 vote(s)
    13.3%
  3. A Bloody civil war would errupt until a powerful government emerged that squashed all other factions

    9 vote(s)
    60.0%
  4. A Civil war would spread leading to massive regional war between Sunnia and Shiite states

    1 vote(s)
    6.7%
  5. The Current government would not fall. Policitical compromises eventually lead to peace.

    3 vote(s)
    20.0%
  1. Hard Driver

    Hard Driver Well-Known Member

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    My take..

    All our troops are doing is buying time.. Bush want sour troops there so that the fubar in Iraq can be passed to someone else and he doesn't take all the blame...

    But if our troops leave now, or they leave in 10 years, the only difference is how much money we spend and how many American lives we sacrafice in the meantime. This concept that we need to say to provide "security" so that the Iraqi government can take root is wrong.

    The facts as I see them are that the Iraqi people in general don't like us... They hate Al Qeada more, but they don't like us either. SO to think that they will form a representative government that is a little american friend in the middle east, but is autonomous and not reliant on US troops if we just stay long enough will never happen.

    The government in Iraq is going to need to be completely autonomous before the Iraqi people support it.. While the US troops are there, support of the government means support of the USA and that does not sit well with the Iraqi people, hence their support for attacks against US troops.

    If the US leaves, the sectarian fighting will continue.. But that is not any different... What will be different is that the Iraqi people can not blame it on the US not protecting them and they will quickly realize they need to do something about it themselves..

    Yes, Iran will have an influence in Iraq, but that does not mean Iraq will not remain autonomous.. And if this is going to be a representative government in Iraq, than the Shiite majority in Iraq will have some ties to Iran... get over it.

    Saudi Arabia does not want the Sunni minority slaughtered, so they will support those militias..

    However, I don't think that the whole thing will extend beyond the Iraqi borders.. What will happen if we withdraw is that the fubar will get a bit deeper... The Iraqi leaders, religious leaders and general population will then know they need to forge a solution that does not rely on the USA, Iran or Saudi Arabia and the POLITICAL progress that is needed in the country will finally happen and some stable government will form...

    This WILL NOT be a terrorist base for Al Qeada...

    This will not be a clone of Iran...

    And in the long run, less people will probably die, even though more may die in the short run, because the final working government in Iraq will emerge sooner rather than later. Because no working government is going to emerge while the US basically occupies the country and the government is seen as a US puppet.
     
  2. BigRob

    BigRob Well-Known Member

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    Your right, I suppose you are more intelligent that a room of PHD's with actual on the ground experience, who have way more information than you can even get. Good call.
     
  3. Popeye

    Popeye Well-Known Member

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    Congratulations on your conversion. I'm glad you see that all the information in the world isn't worth a damn if that information is skewed.
     
  4. Reliant

    Reliant Well-Known Member

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    Thank you. :D
    You are far too full of yourself to offer any credibility. And telling me how smart you are when providing me with evidence to the contrary is, quite frankly, pointless. Perhaps you are a PhD, but in your case it is Piled Higher & Deeper.

    Now back to the topic-

    I do not believe that any other country will invade Iraq. They will try to influence Iraq, but that is the same thing America is trying to do. I consider Iraq an opportunity to build better relationships in the ME, but not by fanning the flames of a secular struggle that has been going on for centuries. It's high time the people of Iraq stepped up to the plate and if they need help, we should offer anything we can. There is no such thing as democracy at the point of a gun.
     
  5. palerider

    palerider Well-Known Member

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    Exactly what parallels do you draw between our civil war and the civil war that will erupt in iraq if we leave that you believe are so obvious that everyone should see them?
     
  6. top gun

    top gun Well-Known Member

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    That's the problem with limited choices in a poll... all you can do is guess which one is "close" to what you really think. I personally think a combination of things will happen.

    There are a couple things we need to accept up front. When we leave some Iraqis will die... but that's the same if we stay. Iraqis are dieing now, the only real difference is our guys are sometimes dieing with them.

    There is a certain amount of inevitability that some just refuse to see because they're all caught up with this "win" thing... whatever that means. Because it's never going to mean Iraq is a little America in the Middle east... ain't gonna ever happen!

    We've been an occupying force in Iraq for too long now. Actually should have never went in...

    But what we should tell them now is this. We are starting an orderly redeployment over the next year or so and either the current government consolidates its authority or it doesn't. It's their country. If they want to kill each other or split it up rather than accept a centralized government they'll at some point have to learn by their own mistakes. The US enabling them is like a friend buying an alcoholic a drink... it only continues the real problem and puts off recovery.

    What we're doing now would be like if France had came over to the United States during the lynching of blacks in our Civil Rights struggle and said... We're here to straighten you guys out and do things the civilized French way.
    :confused:
     
  7. BigRob

    BigRob Well-Known Member

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    Im gonna assume comprehension is not your forte. I never once spoke of any country "invading" until after you brought it up, I said right from the get go that all of these countries would simply try to exert influence and fill the power void. So put words in my mouth all day long, but it does not make them true.
     
  8. Castle

    Castle Well-Known Member

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    Crap!
    I agree with 95% of this post. How can this be?

    -Castle
     
  9. top gun

    top gun Well-Known Member

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    It's hard to say... but now I have to go back and look at it again myself... Crap! :D
     
  10. vyo476

    vyo476 Well-Known Member

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    I hate to say "I told you so," but...

    Turkey issues fresh warning of military incursion into Iraq

    55 minutes ago

    ANKARA (AFP) - Turkey on Tuesday threatened a military incursion in northern Iraq as part of stepped up measures against Kurdish rebel bases there following the deaths of 15 soldiers in weekend attacks.


    The government said in a statement that it had given orders allowing for all legal, economic and political measures, "including a cross-border operation if necessary," against a "terrorist organisation in a neighbouring country".

    The statement was taken to refer to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) presence in Iraq.

    Earlier, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan had met senior government and military officials to discuss tougher action against the PKK after the rebels killed 15 soldiers in weekend attacks. The group is listed as a terrorist group by Ankara and much of the international community.

    Ankara says the PKK enjoys free movement in northern Iraq and obtains weapons and explosives there for attacks across the border.

    It has also accused Iraqi Kurds of tolerating and even supporting the rebels.

    The government has forwarded to parliament a proposal to authorise such a venture, the CNN-Turk television channel reported, adding that it was currently under consideration.

    Spontaneous demonstrations were meanwhile held Wednesday across various Turkish cities in support of incursions.


    The Turkish military has long sought authorisation to strike against PKK bases in northern Iraq but Ankara has held back pressure from the United States. Washington does not want its Iraqi Kurdish allies forced into confrontation with the Turkish army.


    Turkey and Iraq signed an accord last month to combat the PKK but failed to agree on a clause allowing Turkish troops to engage in "hot pursuit" against rebels fleeing into Iraqi territory, as they did regularly in the 1990s.

    Washington meanwhile immediately issued a warning to Ankara.

    "I am not sure that unilateral incursions are the way to go, the way to resolve the issue," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said in Washington.

    "We have counseled them both in public and private for many, many months (on) the idea that it is important to work cooperatively to resolve this issue," McCormack added.

    Many observers here doubt whether the embattled Baghdad government, which has virtually no authority in northern Iraq, can cajole the Iraqi Kurds into action against the PKK.

    The group's 23-year armed campaign for self-rule in southeast Turkey has left more than 37,000 dead.

    A PKK ambush on Saturday killed 13 soldiers in southeast Sirnak province bordering Iraq, the worst losses the army has suffered against the rebels since 1995.

    Another soldier was killed in a clash with the rebels Saturday and one early Monday in a remote-controlled landmine explosion.

    The attacks followed the killing of 12 people, mostly civilians but including anti-PKK Kurdish "Village Guard" militia, in an ambush on a minibus in Sirnak on September 29.

    Tuesday's government statement said rising PKK violence was due to a series of economic, social and political measures that had improved the living conditions of the country's sizeable Kurdish community, leading the PKK "to lose popular support" in the southeast.

    Under European Union pressure, Turkey has in recent years broadened Kurdish cultural freedoms and lifted emergency rule in the southeast of the country.

    The July 22 parliamentary elections saw Erdogan's Justice and Development Party considerably increase its support in the region at the expense of the country's main Kurdish political movement, the Democratic Society Party.



    In other words, the Turks are ready to land with both feet on the Kurds in Iraq. So much for believing that no other country will invade Iraq.
     
  11. BigRob

    BigRob Well-Known Member

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    Ill say it then, I told you so! :D
     
  12. vyo476

    vyo476 Well-Known Member

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  13. Bunz

    Bunz Well-Known Member

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    I have been paying attention to this for a few days now and started a thread that nobody seems to have replied in yet...regardless. This is very concerning to me. There are two major potentials. The Turks having cross border raids, and also ejecting or at least suspending use of Incirlik. Incirlik is a very critical supply base for US operations in Iraq. Despite me not approving of this war. We need Incirlik.
    Also, the Armenian Genocide resolution is not something that is wise to be taken up at this point. It is nothing but provacative and generally useless. It is non-binding, and targets something that happened nearly 100 years ago, and under a totally different government. Armenian Genocide whether you agree with that it was or not, was done under the Ottoman Empire. Not the Turkish democracy. Of the people the participated, none of them are alive today and there is no recourse against them as individuals or as a government body. There are much more important items to be addressed in my opinion. This appears to be a largely democratic effort and they are doing nothing but shooting themselves in the foot.
     
  14. PoliticalGrrrl

    PoliticalGrrrl Active Member

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    I would vote for the following:

    Al Qeada would take over creating a terrorist state
    A Bloody civil war would errupt until a powerful government emerged that squashed all other factions
    A Civil war would spread leading to massive regional war between Sunnia and Shiite states

    Basically, everything that is happening now. Horrible thing is, we're damned if we do, damned if we don't.

    There is a light at the end of the tunnel.... bad thing is.....it's a train.
     
  15. vyo476

    vyo476 Well-Known Member

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    This time I really will say "I told you so."

    Turkey launches ground operation in Iraq

    By CHRISTOPHER TORCHIA

    ISTANBUL, Turkey - Turkish troops launched a ground incursion across the border into Iraq in pursuit of separatist Kurdish rebels, the military said Friday — a move that dramatically escalates Turkey's conflict with the militants.

    It is the first confirmed ground operation by the Turkish military into Iraq since the U.S.-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein. It also raised concerns that it could trigger a wider conflict with the U.S.-backed Iraqi Kurds, despite Turkey's assurances that its only target was the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK.

    The ground operation started after Turkish warplanes and artillery bombed suspected rebel targets on Thursday, the military said on its Web site. The incursion was backed by the Air Force, the statement said.

    Turkey has conducted air raids against the PKK guerrillas in northern Iraq since December, with the help of U.S. intelligence, and it has periodically carried out so-called "hot pursuits" in which small units sometimes spend only a few hours inside Iraq.

    The announcement of a cross-border, ground incursion of a type that Turkey carried out before the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 was a major development in its conflict with the Kurdish rebels, which started in 1984 and has claimed as many as 40,000 lives.

    Turkey staged about two-dozen incursions in Iraq during the rule of Saddam, who launched brutal campaigns against the Kurdish population. Some Turkish offensives involved tens of thousands of troops. Results were mixed, with rebels suffering blows to their ranks and supplies but regrouping after the bulk of the Turkish forces had left.

    PKK spokesman Ahmad Danas said two Turkish troops were killed and eight wounded in clashes along the 240-mile border, but there was no comment from the Turkish military and no way to independently confirm the claim.

    The Kurdish militants are fighting for autonomy in Turkey's predominantly Kurdish southeast, and have carried out attacks on Turkish targets from bases in northern Iraq. The U.S. and the European Union consider the PKK a terrorist organization.

    "The Turkish Armed Forces, which values Iraq's territorial integrity and its stability, will return as soon as planned goals are achieved," the military said. "The executed operation will prevent the region from being a permanent and safe base for the terrorists and will contribute to Iraq's stability and internal peace."

    Private NTV television said 10,000 troops were taking part in the offensive and had penetrated six miles into Iraq, though some reports said that not all the troops had been deployed. The operation was reportedly concentrated in the Hakurk region, south of the Turkish border town of Cukurca.

    The state-run Anatolia agency reported that warplanes were seen taking off from the air base in Diyarbakir in southeast Turkey. It said planes and helicopters were conducting reconnaissance flights over the border region, and that military units were deployed at the border to prevent rebel infiltration.

    Dogan News Agency reported that the Habur border crossing, a major conduit for trade between Iraq and Turkey, was closed to vehicle traffic.

    CNN-Turk television, however, quoted Deputy Prime Minister Hayati Yazici as saying the border gate was not closed but that priority was being given to Turkish military vehicles. Trucks routinely ferry supplies bound for U.S. military bases in Iraq through the Habur crossing.

    Rear Adm. Gregory Smith, a U.S. spokesman in Iraq, said the military had received assurances from its NATO ally Turkey that it would do everything possible to avoid "collateral damage" to innocent civilians or infrastructure.

    "Multi-National Forces-Iraq is aware Turkish ground forces have entered into northern Iraq, for what we understand is an operation of limited duration to specifically target PKK terrorists in that region," Smith said in a statement.

    "The United States continues to support Turkey's right to defend itself from the terrorist activities of the PKK and has encouraged Turkey to use all available means, to include diplomacy and close coordination with the Government of Iraq to ultimately resolve this issue," he added.

    Matthew Bryza, U.S. deputy assistant secretary for southeastern Europe, cited the importance of a Nov. 5 meeting in which President Bush promised Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan that Washington would share intelligence on the PKK.

    "The land operation is a whole new level," Bryza said in Belgium. "What I can say is that what we've been doing until now has been working quite well."

    The European Commission appealed to Turkey to act with restraint.

    "Turkey should refrain from taking any disproportionate military action and respect human rights and the rule of law," said Commission spokeswoman Krisztina Nagy.

    "The EU understands Turkey's need to protect its population from terrorism," she said. "We encourage Turkey to continue to pursue dialogue with international partners."

    Turkish President Abdullah Gul spoke with his Iraqi counterpart Jalal Talabani late Thursday and gave him information about the goals of the operation, Gul's office said. Gul also invited Talabani to visit Turkey.

    The military said its target was PKK rebels and that it does not want to harm civilians "and other local groups that do not act in enmity against the Turkish Armed Forces."

    Nihat Ali Ozcan, a terrorism expert with the research center TEPAV, said the operation was likely launched to hit the group before the traditional start of the fighting season in the spring.

    "I think it is aimed to keep the PKK under pressure before the group starts entering Turkey," he said on CNN-Turk television.

    Iraqi border forces officer Col. Hussein Tamer said Turkish shelling on Thursday hit several Kurdish villages in the Sedafan area, some 20 miles from the border.

    Jabbar Yawar, a spokesman for Iraqi Kurdish security forces, said sporadic bombing had taken place in the border areas, but no casualties were reported.

    Fouad Hussein, a spokesman for the semiautonomous Kurdish government in Iraq, said the Kurdish Peshmerga forces had been put on alert.

    He said Iraqi Kurdish forces also had tightened security around bases housing Turkish military monitors operating in northern Iraq with permission from local authorities under a 1996 agreement.

    "The government of Kurdistan ordered the Peshmerga forces to be on alert in fear of any Turkish incursion on Iraqi territory," he said, claiming that Turkish military monitors had tried to leave their bases in violation of the accord.

    "Those troops tried to move out, but the Peshmerga forces forced them to return to their camps within half an hour," he said.

    Turkish media reports said Friday that a total of 1,200 Turkish monitors in four camps in Iraq were helping to coordinate the ground offensive.



    So yeah...I told you so. And we didn't even have to leave for this to happen.
     
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