"Winner take all": How did we get here?

the most simplistic notion of working harder has never any guarantee of upward mobility. simply shoveling more rap;idly dows not qualify you for being anything more than a better paid shoveler.
So true... It takes personal responsibility, discipline, and a little ambition to get ahead in life - Conservatives usually know this from experience. You can be the fastest, best paid shoveler on the block but if you make poor decisions in your personal life that lead you to continually spend more than you earn, you will never get ahead.
 
Werbung:
...the mobility of Americans in general, with the exception of the very wealthy, has greatly slowed over the last 30 years, and has basically stopped and even declined over the lats 10 years.
Such statements have been shown to be false when compared with the actual data... Which you chose to ignore.
 
I prefer to watch a discussion rather than read a transcript. I am certain that if you are interested in getting a transcript, you can do so.

I understand that you do, no problem with that, but others don't and it might serve to attract more discussion if you accommodated others. Just a suggestion.

And if you are not interested in watching the discussion through a video, no one forces you to do it.

Of course but a forum such as this is about discussion and some people cannot carve out an hour and so are left out.

Bill Moyers is a very reliable and respected person. This discussion was NOT partisan, and demonstrated that BOTH democrat and republican adminstrations were basically playing the hands of the very top elites for the last 30 years.

well thats debatable but really moot.

It is not because you do not agree with it that it is wrong.

No. Its merits or lack thereof are based on fact and ommission.
 
The point that you seem to be missing is that IN SPITE of working harder and longer hours, in spite of increased productivity, the mobility of Americans in general, with the exception of the very wealthy, has greatly slowed over the last 30 years, and has basically stopped and even declined over the lats 10 years.

Haven't you noticed the number of "adult children" moving back with their parents? Have you not noticed that most young adult have little chance to be as successful as their parents?

How are your kids doing? It takes more formal education (and more debts to get that education) to get a job that can sustain a middle or upper middle class living style, and yet most young adults will never be able to retire.

Sorry, you can continue to live in lala land. . .do not face reality if you don't want to. As you say. . .the frog doesn't notice the water getting hotter until it's too late. The water has started to boil, and you are denying it.


My kid is doing great (thanks for asking).

Shoveling faster (or longer) doesn't advance you.
Attaining a degree doesn't advance you, demonstrated competence does.
Lack of mobility is a myth.

What else has collapsed over the last 30 years ? Education. Could this have any impact on kid's prospects ? Of course. Everyone knows a H.S. diploma does not signify what it did 30 years ago nor does a bachelor's degree. So you look elsewhere to find winners. My kid has worked hard to demonstrate ability on many levels and people have noted this.

Have to look at the whole picture to understand it.
 
So true... It takes personal responsibility, discipline, and a little ambition to get ahead in life - Conservatives usually know this from experience. You can be the fastest, best paid shoveler on the block but if you make poor decisions in your personal life that lead you to continually spend more than you earn, you will never get ahead.

there is nothing wrong with seeking to be the best shoveler you can be but if you seek to be more then you must have the initiative to qualify and prove yourself of being worthy of more. No such thing as a free lunch.
 
Look at this:

From Wikepedia:

Types

Mobility may be between generations ("inter-generational") or within a person or groups lifetime ("intra-generational"). It may be "absolute" or "relative"[1].
Inter-generational mobility compares a person’s (or group's) income to that of her/his/their parents. Intra-generational mobility, in contrast, refers to movement up or down over the course of a working career.[2] Absolute mobility involves widespread economic growth[1] and answers the question “To what extent do families improve their incomes over a generation?”[3] Relative mobility is specific to individuals or groups and occurs without relation to the economy as a whole[1]. It answers the question, "how closely are the economic fortunes of children tied to that of their parents?"[3] Relative mobility is a zero-sum game, absolute is not.
[edit]
United States


Main article: Socio-economic mobility in the United States
How much economic mobility there is in America is disputed.
[edit]
Intergenerational mobility


According to the 2007 "American Dream Report" study, "by some measurements" -- relative mobility between generations -- "we are actually a less mobile society than many other nations, including Canada, France, Germany and most Scandinavian countries. This challenges the notion of America as the land of opportunity."[1]
Another 2007 study ("Economic Mobility Project: Across Generations") found found significant upward "absolute" mobility from the late 1960s to 2007, with two thirds of those who were children in 1968 reporting more household income than their parents[3] (although most of this growth in total family income can be attributed to the increasing number of women who work since male earnings have stayed relatively stable throughout this time[3]).
However, in terms of relative mobility it stated: "contrary to American beliefs about equality of opportunity, a child’s economic position is heavily influenced by that of his or her parents."[3] 42% of children born to parents in the bottom fifth of the income distribution ("quintile") remain in the bottom, while 39% born to parents in the top fifth remain at the top.[3] Only half of the generation studied exceeded their parents economic standing by moving up one or more quintiles[3]. Moving between quintiles is more frequent in the middle quintiles (2-4) than in the lowest and highest quintiles. Of those in one of the quintiles 2-4 in 1996, approximately 35% stayed in the same quintile; and approximately 22% went up one quintile or down one quintile (moves of more than one quintile are rarer). 39% of those who were born into the top quintile as children in 1968 are likely to stay there, and 23% end up in the fourth quintile[3]. Children previously from lower-income families had only a 1% chance of having an income that ranks in the top 5%[4]. On the other hand, the children of wealthy families have a 22% chance of reaching the top 5%[4].
[edit]
Intragenerational mobility


mobility of individuals [within a single generation] in the U.S. economy during the 1996 through 2005 period as over half of taxpayers moved to a different income quintile over this period"[5].
Other studies were less impressed with the rate of individual mobility in the United States. A 2007 inequality and mobility study (by Kopczuk, Saez and Song) and 2011 CBO study on "Trends in the Distribution of Household Income, found the pattern of annual and long-term earnings inequality "very close",[6] or "only modestly" different.[7] Another source described it as the mobility of "the guy who works in the college bookstore and has a real job by his early thirties," rather than poor people rising to middle class or middle income rising to wealth.[8]
In recent years several large studies have found that vertical inter-generational mobility is lower in American than in most developed countries.[9] A 1996 paper by Daniel P. McMurrer, Isabel V. Sawhill found "mobility rates seem to be quite similar across countries."[10]However a more recent paper (2007) found a person's parents is a great deal more predictive of their own income in the United States than other countries[4]. The United States had about 1/3 the ratio of mobility of Denmark and less than half that of Canada, Finland and Norway.[1]France, Germany, Sweden, also had higher mobility, with only theUnited Kingdom being less mobile[1].
Economic mobility in developing nations (such as those in Africa) is thought to be limited by both historical and global economic factors
[edit]
Worldwide
 
or this

more information at this "Economist" article

snip
“The High-Beta Rich” is one that deserves to be read, and not just because it provides the rest of us with a cathartic dose of Schadenfreude at the expense of the super-wealthy. Robert Frank makes a new, contrarian argument with important implications for economic policymaking: modern wealth is a far more volatile substance than is commonly believed.
 
Open's claim: Over the last 30 years, upward Income Mobility for 99% of Americans has stopped or fallen.
Now let's look at the Wiki "evidence" she offers to support this,

"...Mobility in America is lower than in most developed countries."

She was not arguing that income mobility in America was worse than other countries, so that statement does not support her claim... Next we have,

"The US had about 1/3 the ratio of mobility of Denmark and less than half that of Canada, Finland and Norway. France, Germany, and Sweden also had higher mobility with only the UK being less mobile."

That too fails to support her claim.

From the Wiki article: 48% of children born into the bottom quintile remain in the lowest quintile.This means that, 52% of children born to the bottom quintile move up at least one quintile - That is upward mobility for the majority of those at the bottom quintile, this directly contradicts Open's claim about an abscence of upward income mobility.
 
Open's claim: Over the last 30 years, upward Income Mobility for 99% of Americans has stopped or fallen.
Now let's look at the Wiki "evidence" she offers to support this,

"...Mobility in America is lower than in most developed countries."

She was not arguing that income mobility in America was worse than other countries, so that statement does not support her claim... Next we have,

"The US had about 1/3 the ratio of mobility of Denmark and less than half that of Canada, Finland and Norway. France, Germany, and Sweden also had higher mobility with only the UK being less mobile."

That too fails to support her claim.

From the Wiki article: 48% of children born into the bottom quintile remain in the lowest quintile.This means that, 52% of children born to the bottom quintile move up at least one quintile - That is upward mobility for the majority of those at the bottom quintile, this directly contradicts Open's claim about an abscence of upward income mobility.

When you begin a post by stating an open lie, I don't even bother going to the second sentence.

I NEVER claimed that "over the last 30 years upward mobility for 99% of Americans had stopped or fallen!
If you had taken the time to listen to the discussion I posted, you would KNOW what I said. . .which is what the statistics offered by the authors of "Winner takes all" explain in that discussion.

In the last 30 years, upward mobility for 99% of the people have slowed to a crawl, and for some has regressed IN SPITE of an increase in productivity due to longer hours, and even more education. In the other hand, the top 1% has seen its income increased by 256% (the top 0.1 % by much more than that!) while the rest of the population has seen their income (adjusted for inflation) go up (in spite of the increased productivity and increased education) by only an average of 20 to 25%.

And I posted a source that shows that upward mobility in other countries has much surpassed that in this country.

The "upward mobility" to a quintile that is ALSO poverty and for only about 1/2 of the people who were born in abject poverty is NOTHING to be proud of in a supposedly "great, developped country!"

Especially when the income of those two bottom quintiles has SLID DOWN when compared to that of the top 1/20 of the upper quintile!

You can argue until you are green in the face to try to support your illusions, but the facts are easy to check for anyone with half a brain.
And. . .I believe you are not stupid. . .so you must be dishonest.
 
I don't have to waste an hour of my time watching a bunch of blowhards patting themselves on the back to know that the problems that exist today, exist because of both parties.

Because of both parties disregarding the Constitution, because of both parties working for their own power rather than the good of the people, because of both parties continuing to increase spending and expand government.
 
I don't have to waste an hour of my time watching a bunch of blowhards patting themselves on the back to know that the problems that exist today, exist because of both parties.

Because of both parties disregarding the Constitution, because of both parties working for their own power rather than the good of the people, because of both parties continuing to increase spending and expand government.

Agreed.

Now lets look for solutions. Is there ANYONE in the D Party (commies really) advancing policies which slow or stop the spending or expansion of government? I think not. And, their leader (I affectionately call him the Skinny Socialist) has no intention of doing these things...though he will cut defense spending.

The Rs are not much better, but they are better. Yes? At least there are a few in the R party advancing policies limiting spending and the growth of government.

The Tea Party is really the only major political party (apologies to libertarians) in America advocating reduced spending and limited government. And, who is it that viciously attacks the TP? Of course, it is the commies and their media.
 
Even if the (R)'s advance policies to limit spending and growth, it doesn't matter when they ignore those items when they gain power. Which seems to be the norm for both parties. Talk a good game, but when in charge, fo-get-abow-dit.
 
I NEVER claimed that "over the last 30 years upward mobility for 99% of Americans had stopped or fallen!

You said the following:

The SWINGS have continue to go UPWARD for the top 1%, but are generally DOWNWARD for the greatest majority of the 99%.

The data does not support your claims, even the Wiki link you provided showed that a majority of those in the lowest quintile experienced upward mobility - This shows the second portion of your statement is false.

The data further shows that over a 10 year period, a majority of those in the top 1% fell to a lower quintile. A full 75% of those in the top 0.1% also fell to a lower quintile over the same period - This shows the first portion of your statement is false.

You are confusing the mobility between quintiles with the increase of income among the specific quintiles. These two concepts do not equate and it is this illogical reasoning that has led you to make fallacious conclusions that cannot be supported by the available data.

In the other hand, the top 1% has seen its income increased by 256% (the top 0.1 % by much more than that!) while the rest of the population has seen their income (adjusted for inflation) go up (in spite of the increased productivity and increased education) by only an average of 20 to 25%.
It is clear that you do not understand the difference between income mobility between the quintiles and the increase of income among the specific quintiles. Your argument is one of a zero sum game, that one cannot prosper without that prosperity coming at the expense of all others. Such claims are without merit and have not been supported by any empirical data.
 
You said the following:



The data does not support your claims, even the Wiki link you provided showed that a majority of those in the lowest quintile experienced upward mobility - This shows the second portion of your statement is false.

The data further shows that over a 10 year period, a majority of those in the top 1% fell to a lower quintile. A full 75% of those in the top 0.1% also fell to a lower quintile over the same period - This shows the first portion of your statement is false.

You are confusing the mobility between quintiles with the increase of income among the specific quintiles. These two concepts do not equate and it is this illogical reasoning that has led you to make fallacious conclusions that cannot be supported by the available data.


It is clear that you do not understand the difference between income mobility between the quintiles and the increase of income among the specific quintiles. Your argument is one of a zero sum game, that one cannot prosper without that prosperity coming at the expense of all others. Such claims are without merit and have not been supported by any empirical data.

What you are saying is that, if you climb to the next upward quintile, it doesn't matter if your income stays in the dump. . .you should be grateful!

I don't see it that way. Rising to the "next quintile" is meaningless. . .if the next quintile's income is no greater or barely greater than what you used to make when you were in the bottom quintile.

And. . .obviously the "256%" rise in income for the top 1% has had a negative impact on everyone's income! In a fair society, the increase in income over time should be more levelled (as it is mostly in the bottom 90%. . .who has experience an average income increased of only 20 t0 25% over the last 30 years). If one looks at the way the top 1% has increased its income by 256%. . .you may find out that it was through closing manufacturing and sending the jobs over sea. . .which OBVIOUSLY affected the ability to earn a decent living for many people in the 90%! And this is ONLY one example!

If you can't see that. . . you can continue to feel self-righteous and very arrogant, and continue to believe that you are the only one who understands the system. . .but it really doesn't much in real life!!!

But I had enough of this. . .so enjoy this thread as long as you wish, and leave me alone.
 
Werbung:
What you are saying is that, if you climb to the next upward quintile, it doesn't matter if your income stays in the dump. . .you should be grateful!

I don't see it that way. Rising to the "next quintile" is meaningless. . .if the next quintile's income is no greater or barely greater than what you used to make when you were in the bottom quintile.

And. . .obviously the "256%" rise in income for the top 1% has had a negative impact on everyone's income! In a fair society, the increase in income over time should be more levelled (as it is mostly in the bottom 90%. . .who has experience an average income increased of only 20 t0 25% over the last 30 years). If one looks at the way the top 1% has increased its income by 256%. . .you may find out that it was through closing manufacturing and sending the jobs over sea. . .which OBVIOUSLY affected the ability to earn a decent living for many people in the 90%! And this is ONLY one example!

If you can't see that. . . you can continue to feel self-righteous and very arrogant, and continue to believe that you are the only one who understands the system. . .but it really doesn't much in real life!!!

But I had enough of this. . .so enjoy this thread as long as you wish, and leave me alone.


if you set the metrics and miss making your point its not someone else's fault.
 
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