Dawkinsrocks
Well-Known Member
Course you are
I'll try an eighth of what you're smoking
I'll try an eighth of what you're smoking
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Since 9/11 Americans have killed around 300,000 Americans
- Thread starter Dawkinsrocks
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It is called "reality" -- I think they distribute it in 3rd grade math class.
Dawkinsrocks
Well-Known Member
You should have attended
Mind you, If you think 3000 is a bigger number than 200,000 you probably require special needs classes
Mind you, If you think 3000 is a bigger number than 200,000 you probably require special needs classes
I did -- which is why I know that comparing apples to oranges gets you nowhere.
Again -- here you are claiming I said things I never did.
The point remains -- as I shown over and over and over again -- that statistically speaking, over the last decade, I was LESS likely to be killed by another American than an AQ terrorist. It is not that my odds were high in either regard really -- but they are less in terms of other Americans.
This is not because less people died by murders than on 9/11 -- this is because the total size of the groups has to be considered when doing the calculation.
Answer this question:
If you were standing in a line, and 10 people in that line were going to be shot, would you rather be in a line of 100 people or 100,000 people?
You would say it doesn't matter because the "odds" are the same that you will be shot (10 per line) -- however one can clearly see the odds are in fact not the same at all.
Alias
Well-Known Member
America is far worse. We are the source for everything wrong in the universe. Yup.
heck we probably hit the switch for the Big Bang by mistake !
GenSeneca
Well-Known Member
Right... Because that would make it less likely for an American to be killed by an American.
Seriously... Can we set Dawkins default type font to "Crayon" so that it matches his level of public discourse?
Pandora
Well-Known Member
Right... Because that would make it less likely for an American to be killed by an American.
Seriously... Can we set Dawkins default type font to "Crayon" so that it matches his level of public discourse?
There should be a love tab instead of just like..... because I love this one!
Openmind
Well-Known Member
Now, Big Rob, I don't necessarely totally agree with Daw. . .but there you are wrong!
It is obvious that if about 15,000 people are killed on average per year in the US, and only a SMALL portion (let's say 100) of those people are killed by AQ (which, obviously is an inflated number or we would sure hear about it!) it is simple math to show that one is about 150 times more likely to be killed by a NON-AQ terrorist than by a regular killer (of any race, any nationality) in america.
And, if you look at an EXTRAORDINARY event year (like the 9/11 year), if the total number of murder in America that year was relatively similar to the other years (let's say, 15,000 again), and AQ killed 3,000. . .that still gave a regular American about 5 times more chance to be killed by a "run of the mill" murderer in America than by that dreadful attack by AQ. . .and if you ADD the 3,000 death provoked by AQ on 9/11 to the "average" murder rate in that year. . .that raise the chances of an American being murdered by a "run of the mill" common murderer (of any nationality, any race) 6 times greater than being murdered by AQ.
That is just plain math!
Now. . .I'm open to seeing a different point of view. . .IF it is explained to me in factual terms that demonstrates that my analysis is wrong.
I already explained why your assertion is wrong in ten or more posts previously. Your argument is the same as Dawkins and does not take into group size when making your assertions.
You cannot compare groups of varying sizes unless you account for that -- something Dawkins (and now you) do not do.
pocketfullofshells
Well-Known Member
While I agree with most of what your saying, your wrong on part here...You are far more likey to be killed by a American then a Terrorist from al-Qaeda. Even in New York City the murder Rate over 10 years is alot more then where killed in the attacks. Diving it by Terrorist only shows that a small amount of terrorist killed a far greater percent per Murderer...But The Odds are, if your killed in the US...It was by a American ...( also most likey by a family Member or someone your close to)
Over the last decade -- statistically speaking -- AQ has been the more violent group.
Openmind
Well-Known Member
So what? If you recognize that the total number of AQ is MUCH smaller than that of potential American murderers. . .it still make it less likely that you will be killed by AQ than by a homegrown murderer!
Just as. . .you are more likely to die in a car accident than you are to be murdered by ANYONE. . .and to go further, you are more likely to be killed in a car accident within 5 miles of your home than you are 300 miles from home. . .and, yes, it is because you spend more time travelling withing 5 miles of your home (probably at least twice daily) then you do travelling 300 miles from your home!
But the fact is that . . .is it wise to put so much energy, and so much money toward protecting yourself from AQ when the likelihood of you being hurt by AQ is so much lower than being killed in your car?
Would you spend three times (or 10 times) more resources protecting yourself by purchasing a "special insurance" to protect yourself just in case you get killed 300 miles or more from home, than you would for purchasing an insurance that protects you from accidents within 5 miles of your home?
The fact is that we have been traumatized by that ONE TIME EVENT of 9/11, and have thrown every possible resources to "fight" potential other attacks. . .but all this money and military might that we have thrown to doing that has not made us much safer at home. . .and has weaken our economic standing and made us more vulnerable to subtle "take over" through economic channels.
The US doesn't have to be concerned about an "invasion" in our land. . .at least not from any "foreign" forces (maybe from "ALIEN" forces. . .if you believe in science fiction!). The US needs to be a lot more concerned about how our economic fragility, our relatively poor education system, our ever growing income back between the wealthy and the rest of us will affect our futur.
I don't remember who said that if the US fall, it will be from within! I do believe that. . .I may even believe that, as someone else (can't remember who) said, the invader will be wrapped in an American flag!
pocketfullofshells
Well-Known Member
Yes, but not in America...in America its contained to 1 major event...by a small amount of people...Far More Americans are killed by Americans...meaning its Far more Likley that if your killed...it was by a American...They have simply killed the Greatest amount per person that killed...If I said someone was Just Killed in the US today...you would be pretty out there to have your first thought be in was by a Terrorist. It was most likey over Drugs, Money, or a Domestic.
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Dawkinsrocks
Well-Known Member
The size of AQ is irrelevant
The numbers that matter are
Numbers killed in an attack x frequency of attacks
And anyone who tries to argue that one attack killing three thousand places Americans at more risk than many thousands of attacks killing hundreds of thousands has simply lost their mind
Just shows you how US nationalism can blind you to even basic probability
The numbers that matter are
Numbers killed in an attack x frequency of attacks
And anyone who tries to argue that one attack killing three thousand places Americans at more risk than many thousands of attacks killing hundreds of thousands has simply lost their mind
Just shows you how US nationalism can blind you to even basic probability
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