Since 9/11 Americans have killed around 300,000 Americans

[GenSeneca]

You are much more likely to be killed by an American than a Muslim terrorist

What conclusion do you hope Americans should draw from that? What action do you believe America should take within the context of that non-sequitor?

It seems you are trying to make the case that America should totally ignore those who declare war on our country... At least until such time as they kill more of us than we kill of ourselves... Is that really what you are trying to argue?

 

[BigRob]

You make no sense

No -- you just don't get it.

Americans have murdered hundreds of thousands of Americans over the years

No one has disputed such a claim.

Some in individual murders some in mass murders

No one has disputed such a claim either.

You are much more likely to be killed by an American than a Muslim terrorist

This is a mathematical certainty

It is a mathematical certainty -- when you incorrectly apply a statistical methodology -- as you continue to do, despite being shown otherwise.

Why is it that you think murder rates are calculated on a level of X per 100,000 people instead of just comparing the total number of murders and ignoring all other factors? It is simple -- it is because you cannot reasonably compare two sets of dramatically different sizes and claim they are the same.

As with my example in China -- using your methodology, I can claim that country A consumes 10 lbs of food a year (as an example) and country B consumes 15 pounds of food per year. You would claim country B is more likely to be obese, but ignore the fact that country A has 50 people and country B has 5,000 people -- making country A in fact consume more food per year per person than country B -- despite the raw figure showing country B consumes more food. You have to compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges -- not apples to oranges.


Let me ask you this --if you live in a country with 10 people that has one murder a year -- are you better off than living in a country with 10,000 people that has 10 murders a year. You would say no -- the data however, says yes.

 

[BigRob]

My point has always been that you are far more at risk from being murdered by an American which makes it much worse as a threat than Islamic terrorism

Having watched some frankly bizarre attempts to contradict this obvious fact I felt it about time that I pointed out that it is a mathematical certainty.

As explained (again) above -- it is only a mathematical certainty when you incorrectly apply your statistical methodology.

And yet the numbskulls in the US still buy the lies

Maybe because we can do math correctly?

Could I request that dogtowner gets demoted on account of his failure to understand basic reasoning please?

No.

 

[Dawkinsrocks]

Look you have already screwed up with your false assertions about the profile of US murders

It is clear that you guys can't stop emotion from clouding what passes for your reasoning

Americans murdered around 17,000 Americans in the US last year. AQ murdered none

Ditto for the year before and every other year since the US began bar 2001 and maybe the odd one that I don't know of. ( in fact the murder rate in the US has been much higher than this in many years. And I am excluding the US civil war)

That is a fact

It is a fact that you are more at risk in the US from your fellow citizens than you are from Islamic terrorists and your inability to grasp this most basic piece of probability exposes both your utter stupidity and demonstrates how slavish you are to propaganda

 

[Dawkinsrocks]

Oh and by the I love your support of your fellow mod

One of the problems on this board is that the mods are right wing religious Americans

There may be the odd deviation from that but generally that is where their sympathies lie

I guess that is why most of the other reasonable people have left

 

[Dawkinsrocks]

And finally Big Rob...

Would you rather live in a country where hundreds of thousands have been murdered since its inception or one where 3,000 have been murdered

You would say yes. The data would be irrelevant

 

[BigRob]

Look you have already screwed up with your false assertions about the profile of US murders

No -- I stated correctly that 17,000 murders did not occur last year.

As clearly seen to all by this FBI reporting on the subject. In 2010 (the last year figures are available right now) -- one clearly sees that in fact 14,748 were murdered last year (and I will ignore that some of these probably occurred by non-citizens).

It is clear that you guys can't stop emotion from clouding what passes for your reasoning

No -- I let data drive my reasoning -- something you repeatedly ignore and pretend is not occurring.

Americans murdered around 17,000 Americans in the US last year. AQ murdered none

This statement is already demonstrated to be false -- and yet you continue to make it.

Ditto for the year before and every other year since the US began bar 2001 and maybe the odd one that I don't know of. ( in fact the murder rate in the US has been much higher than this in many years. And I am excluding the US civil war)

That is a fact

No one is disputing that people are murdered in the United States -- however you continually seem to be unable to grasp that when comparing two groups -- you have to do it in a fashion that accounts for size -- something you cannot seem to grasp.

It is a fact that you are more at risk in the US from your fellow citizens than you are from Islamic terrorists and your inability to grasp this most basic piece of probability

As already noted:

19 hijackers killed 3000 people over a decade
330,000,000 Americans murdered 200,000 people over a decade.

So:
Each hijacker is responsible for 158 deaths over a decade
Each American citizen is responsible for something like .0005 deaths over the same decade

Statistically -- I am far less likely to be murdered by my fellow US citizens over the last decade.

exposes both your utter stupidity and demonstrates how slavish you are to propaganda

Propaganda such as actual crime data and a statistical comparison of death counts? That contradict your argument -- and are only ignoring when you disregard the entire manner in which statistics are supposed to be calculated in your vain effort to prove a point you have no interest in discussing rationally -- is this the "stupidity" to which you refer?

 

[BigRob]

Oh and by the I love your support of your fellow mod

Great.

One of the problems on this board is that the mods are right wing religious Americans

I challenge you to point to specific posts in which I have been unfair to anyone regarding their political beliefs or their religious beliefs. At most you will find I disagree at times -- and always present data etc to back up my assertions.

There may be the odd deviation from that but generally that is where their sympathies lie

Again -- please demonstrate how a Mod has been unfair to you in any regard.

I guess that is why most of the other reasonable people have left

People are free to come and go as they please -- if you join a political board and expect to not get challenged -- I might suggest you are indeed on the wrong site.

 

[BigRob]

And finally Big Rob...

Would you rather live in a country where hundreds of thousands have been murdered since its inception or one where 3,000 have been murdered

Again -- the point sails right over your head. How about this scenario:

Assume equal populations.
County A is 400 years old -- it has 100 people get murdered per year.
County B is 4 years old -- it has 1000 people get murdered per year.

You would point to country A as far worse off because since its inception 400,000 people have been murdered. Whereas, in reality, and as clearly shown when you correctly apply a statistical model instead of ignoring how basic math is done -- it would clearly show that Country B (which has a lower body count) is in fact a much more dangerous place to live.

You would say yes. The data would be irrelevant

No -- the data is very relevant -- it just does not back up your assertion -- unless you apply kindergarten logic to the issue.

 

[Dawkinsrocks]

Look, in the year that AQ allegedly killed 3,000 Americans, Americans killed five times as many Americans

The only way your reasoning could work is if you only sampled September 2011

And that would be ridiculous

The fact remains that the most dangerous group on earth to Americans is Americans

You should invade yourself and spread democracy to yourselves by bombing hundreds of thousands of Americans to death

 

[Dawkinsrocks]

Perhaps this will help you to understand

Let's suppose there are two countries with similar lottery offerings

One has paid out 17000 times every year and the other only 3000 times in only one year since lotteries began

The unit payout is identical in each case

You have to choose which country's lottery you would play on an ongoing basis

Your argument commits you to playing the lottery with the much lower chance of winning

 

[BigRob]

Look, in the year that AQ allegedly killed 3,000 Americans, Americans killed five times as many Americans

That point has not been disputed.

The only way your reasoning could work is if you only sampled September 2011


And that would be ridiculous

My figures included the entire last decade (roughly the time from 9/11 on) -- nothing ridiculous about that.

The fact remains that the most dangerous group on earth to Americans is Americans

Your argument has been that Americans are far more likely to be killed by other Americans than AQ in the last decade. Statistically, I showed you that such a claim remains false.

You should invade yourself and spread democracy to yourselves by bombing hundreds of thousands of Americans to death

This lends so much credibility to your argument.

 

[Dawkinsrocks]

This is just bizarre

You are claiming that you are more at risk from a group that has killed 3000 people in the last ten years than from one that has killed 200,000 during the same period

 

[BigRob]

Perhaps this will help you to understand

Let's suppose there are two countries with similar lottery offerings

One has paid out 17000 times every year and the other only 3000 times in only one year since lotteries began

The unit payout is identical in each case

You have to choose which country's lottery you would play on an ongoing basis

Your argument commits you to playing the lottery with the much lower chance of winning

No -- from what you listed you have no idea of which lottery gives you the better odds...because odds are calculated based on how many people are playing. Or -- as I have been saying -- the size of the group.

So, if 3000 people play the lottery that pays out 3000 times a year, I would much rather play that one than play a lottery that 300,000,000 play in and pays out 17,000 times a year.

 

[BigRob]

This is just bizarre

You are claiming that you are more at risk from a group that has killed 3000 people in the last ten years than from one that has killed 200,000 during the same period

My statement is a mathematical fact.

Over the last decade, I was less likely to be murdered by an American than to be killed by an AQ terrorist.