Global Warning is Very Real

How cute. A single, solitary physics paper is making all the right-wing rounds because it questions the greenhouse theory.

What standing in the field of atmospheric science does this paper have? Is it considered whacky? Does it make a defensible argument in the field? Are the authors taken seriously? Are they paid by the oil industry? I'd have to be a physicist myself to know, and I'm not.

The conclusion of this paper seems to be utterly at odds with institutions such as the National Academy of Science and NASA. Why would anyone automatically assume it's correct and these other institutions are wrong? Would it be because the paper agrees with their pre-existing ideology?

Science is always questioning itself--that's one of its strengths. If this paper makes sense and defensible arguments, it will overturn fundamental conclusions regarding how planets' atmospheres work. It will render unexplicable the temperatures measured on the surfaces of planets.

I tend to be skeptical about such scientific revolutions. I'm too conservative to jump on the bandwagon at the issuance of a single paper, especially when it regards such a politically wraught issue.



p.s. Palerider, as for your offer of "let's talk", since you don't even understand how a greenhouse works, I'm sure that would be a waste of time.
 
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How cute. A single, solitary physics paper is making all the right-wing rounds because it questions the greenhouse theory.

Maybe you could find a paper from the field of physics that promotes the greenhouse theory. I have looked, and I can't find any because the greenhouse effect as described by the global warming crowd is in direct opposition to the 2nd law of thermodynamics.

p.s. Palerider, as for your offer of "let's talk", since you don't even understand how a greenhouse works, I'm sure that would be a waste of time.

What specifically do you find incorrect with regard to the paper. Where is his understanding of the science "unsound"?

By the way, the ad homeim attack on me was less than impotent.
 
Maybe you could find a paper from the field of physics that promotes the greenhouse theory. I have looked, and I can't find any because the greenhouse effect as described by the global warming crowd is in direct opposition to the 2nd law of thermodynamics.

[sarcasm]Oh, no doubt NASA and the National Acadamy of Science and the University of Florida (links I've posted in this thread) agree but they just haven't gotten around to updating all their websites.[/sarcasm]

As for asking me what I agree or disagree with in a paper about atmospheric physics is like asking me what I think about a paper on...atmospheric physics. I'm not a physicist. So I'm not going to presume that I can critique such a paper.
Where does that leave me? It leaves me dependent upon my common sense and non-scientist's viewpoint of where science is today regarding scientific issues. This viewpoint is not authoritative, of course, but that doesn't mean that it's uninformed.
For example, if I see solid institutions like NASA using the greenhouse effect in order to explain global warming, I'm going to weigh that far more heavily than some random paper floating around the right-wing blogosphere.

If such a fundamental natural mechanism, the theory of which has been in place since the 1890s, is actually utterly flawed, and therefore our explanations of planetary tempertures must be tossed out the window, I'm sure I would have been made aware of it by now.
It would have made the Science section of the NYT, or Science Magazine, or Discover Magazine, or any number of web sites I routinely browse.

But I haven't heard a peep. Why is that? So, my suspicions are raised. I asked a number of questions regarding this paper in my last post, which would help allay those suspicions. It seems like a responsible reaction to such a revolutionary position. And yet you ignored my questions. Why?

As for the ad hominum charge, I imagine you refer to my pointing out (9:03 a.m.) that your post at 8:10 this morning demonstrated that you don't understand the greenhouse effect enough to design a simple experiment regarding it. Well. I'll try to keep your delicate sensibilities in mind in the future.
 
As for asking me what I agree or disagree with in a paper about atmospheric physics is like asking me what I think about a paper on...atmospheric physics. I'm not a physicist. So I'm not going to presume that I can critique such a paper.

So you don't have a clue and are nothing more than a parrott for the side that you agree with? And I must assume that your agreement is based on politics as you have admitted that you don't have the background in science needed to make an informed decision.

Where does that leave me? It leaves me dependent upon my common sense and non-scientist's viewpoint of where science is today regarding scientific issues.

And since you have no scientific background, you have no idea of where the science is today. You only know what you are told and have no way of knowing whether what you are being told is based on actual science or an agenda aimed at gaining political power.

This viewpoint is not authoritative, of course, but that doesn't mean that it's uninformed.
For example, if I see solid institutions like NASA using the greenhouse effect in order to explain global warming, I'm going to weigh that far more heavily than some random paper floating around the right-wing blogosphere.

While I am not a climatologist, I do posess two degrees in hard sciences. I have gone over that paper and can find no flaw in the man's case and have made a thorough search looking for papers from the field of physics in support of the greenhouse gas theory. I can find none.

If such a fundamental natural mechanism, the theory of which has been in place for several generations, is actually utterly flawed, and therefore our explanations of planetary tempertures must be tossed out the window, I'm sure I would have been made aware of it by now.
It would have made the Science section of the NYT, or Science Magazine, or Discover Magazine, or any number of web sites I routinely browse.

Why would the NYT have told you about the problem with the greenouse gas theory? They are admittedly pro anthropogenic global warming theory. Ditto for science magazine and discover magazine. And it is clear that the sites you regularly brouse are also pro AGW theory because this is just one of hundreds of pieces of real science that put the lie to AGW theory.

But I haven't heard a peep. Why is that? So, my suspicions are raised. I asked a number of questions regarding this paper in my last post, which would help allay those suspicions. It seems like a responsible reaction to such a revolutionary position. And yet you ignored my questions. Why?

I didn't answer because they are nothing more than a circumstantial ad homenim attack. Where data comes from is as irrelavent as who presents it or who funded it. It is either accurate or it is not. Since you have not pointed out any inaccuracy, you must have dismissed it as an article of faith and I am really not interested in your faith.
 
Yeah, I expected this kind of bluster. I assumed you would ignore the fact that current explanations from sources such as NASA continue to employ the greenhouse effect, clear evidence that papers such as the one you linked to have made no impression on real science.

Wow. You have undergraduate degrees in science. How impressive. That sure makes you an expert on any scientific subject under the sun. Funny how despite those undergraduate degrees in science you presented an experiment regarding the greenhouse effect that only displayed your utter ignorance in the subject.

So you'll forgive me if I have trouble trusting your [sarcasm]dispassionate, non-biased, objective and informed[/sarcasm] review of a single paper circulating amongst the far-right fever swamps.

As I said before, NASA? Or Palerider? Easy choice.
 
Yeah, I expected this kind of bluster. I assumed you would ignore the fact that current explanations from sources such as NASA continue to employ the greenhouse effect, clear evidence that papers such as the one you linked to have made no impression on real science.

There are billions upon billions of dollars available in grant money available to anyone who is willing to jump on the AGW train. There are jeers from the "consensus" and literal threats to do damage to the career of those who buck the trend.

There is a reason that you can't find any papers from the field of physics promoting the greenhouse effect. And don't suppose that because nasa says a thing, that it must be true. We just learned that nasa can't even get basic temperature measurements right. That being the case, how do you justify trusting them on the big items?

Wow. You have undergraduate degrees in science. How impressive. That sure makes you an expert on any scientific subject under the sun. Funny how despite those undergraduate degrees in science you presented an experiment regarding the greenhouse effect that only displayed your utter ignorance in the subject.

So exactly which post graduate degrees in science do you have? Or for that matter, which undergraduate degrees in hard science do you have? Attacking me does nothing to disprove the information that I have provided that puts the lie to the greenhouse theory. So far, nothing you have said has diminished its value in any way.

So you'll forgive me if I have trouble trusting your [sarcasm]dispassionate, non-biased, objective and informed[/sarcasm] review of a single paper circulating amongst the far-right fever swamps.

Nothing to forgive. Parrotts don't really know what they are saying, so the blame for what they say lies with those who taught them the words.

As I said before, NASA? Or Palerider? Easy choice.

I can take an accurate set of temperatures. I have been doing it daily at the lab for years. Since nasa has demonstrated that they can't, your trust might just be misplaced.

And still, the paper I provided remains unrebutted. Since you are unable to even raise any valid questions with regard to its contents, nothing you have said so far has any meaning at all. The information still stands.
 
I can take an accurate set of temperatures. I have been doing it daily at the lab for years.

If your supervisors are smart, that's all they'll let you do. As you've proved (your post above, 12/30/2007 at 8:03 a.m.), you certainly can't be trusted to design experiments.

As for the paper itself, here are some comments I've found regarding it:

"It’s garbage. A ragbag of irrelevant physics strung together incoherently. For instance, apparently energy balance diagrams are wrong because they don’t look like Feynman diagrams and GCMs are wrong because they don’t solve Maxwell’s equations. Not even the most hardened contrarians are pushing this one."

"The planetary albedo is apparently a mystery to the authors, as is the ratio of Earth’s disc to it’s surface area, and they take exception to energy balance diagrams ‘because they do not fit in the Feynman diagrams in quantum field theory”. This is bunkum of a high order."

But that's not all. Here's a more lengthy and more damning citicism:
http://atmoz.org/blog/2007/07/10/falsification-of-the-atmospheric-co2-greenhouse-effects/

Here's some more discussion by people who, unlike you or me, actually seem to know what they are talking about, and find absurd errors in this paper: http://rabett.blogspot.com/2007/10/loons-take-flight-as-halloween-nears.html

You refused to answer the questions I posed earlier which would give us some clue as to the scientific standing of both the paper you linked to and its authors. Your refusal to take this simple and responsible step leaves the paper wide open to criticism. If we are to believe the sources I found, this would explain the fact that the paper is not taken seriously in the scientific community, at least not beyond a few bloggers who, fortunately, have taken time from more productive endevors to point out how silly it is.

So where does all this leave us? At the beginning. You can believe that the global scientific community, including such august instititions as the National Academy of Sciences and NASA are ignorant, or misguided, or just lying to us in order to get funding, or, you can believe that they are giving us their best projections of what's going on with regard to the climate. Which would make you wrong and all those liberal environmental whackos you hate so much, right.

And you can't stand that, can you?

(I'm assuming you're a knee-jerk anti-environmentalist, but I don't know that. I infer it from your behavior--quickly jumping on the bandwagon of this paper while dismissing about a century of settled science on the greenhouse effect. You could invalidate my conclusion by rejecting the paper in question, and acknowledge that the greenhouse effect is not seriously being questioned by serious scientists.)
 
blogs? You offer blogs? Enuf said.

By the way, since none of the projections of either nasa or national academy of sciences has even come close to happening, by what logic do you continue to believe that they are offering you thier best projections instead of considering the obvious money motive for promoting AGW theory?
 
JP, you are on the bus. We are standing on the side of the road.
I always think of Stephen Scneider, one of the first scientist to begin preaching the pitfalls of climatic change. I think his approach to science has been embraced by the global warming advocates. They just present "scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have".



1971
However, it is projected that man's potential to pollute will increase 6 to 8-fold in the next 50 years. If this increased rate of injection... should raise the present background opacity by a factor of 4, our calculations suggest a decrease in global temperature by as much as 3.5 °C. Such a large decrease in the average temperature of Earth, sustained over a period of few years, is believed to be sufficient to trigger an ice age.

1989
On the one hand, as scientists we are ethically bound to the scientific method, in effect promising to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but — which means that we must include all the doubts, the caveats, the ifs, ands, and buts. On the other hand, we are not just scientists but human beings as well. And like most people we'd like to see the world a better place, which in this context translates into our working to reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climatic change. To do that we need to get some broadbased support, to capture the public's imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have. This 'double ethical bind' we frequently find ourselves in cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest. I hope that means being both. (Quoted in Discover, pp. 45–48, Oct. 1989, see also American Physical Society, APS News August/September 1996
 
blogs? You offer blogs? Enuf said.

By the way, since none of the projections of either nasa or national academy of sciences has even come close to happening, by what logic do you continue to believe that they are offering you thier best projections instead of considering the obvious money motive for promoting AGW theory?

None of the projections have even come close? Really? Citation, please. Please provide a projection they've made in the last five years. Ten years. Then we'll see if it came true or if it comes true.

Do you think there's no money to be had for denying global climate change? You think the oil companies aren't standing by to spend huge bucks to get some prominent scientists to say what they want them to say? Who has deeper pockets, the Sierra Club or Shell Oil?

As for the criticisms I found regarding the paper you found in your right-wing web sites, I was pretty sure that you wouldn't actually respond. I can only assume the reason you gave up is because you're out of your depth. That's okay. After that "little experiment" you proposed, it's obvious that you don't know much about the subject. Neither do I, but at least I admitted as much from the very start.

Oh well. Back to reading temperatures in that lab you work in...
 
1971

1989

I find the second quote especially interesting. As for the first quote, we've learned a bit since then. Every year, more and more scientists who previously were bystanders are "getting on the bus."

The stakes are high. Hope people don't wait too long.
 
None of the projections have even come close? Really? Citation, please. Please provide a projection they've made in the last five years. Ten years. Then we'll see if it came true or if it comes true.

Here are 32 separate predictions, 27 of which failed completely, 1 was accurate enough to claim as a win for the people who programmed the senario but it is entirely unclear whether human beings are responsible or whether it was just a lucky guess, and since this list was published, the trend that arctic ice has taken has been the opposite of their prediction anyway so it didn't hold, and the results of 4 were so ambiguous so as to be intederminable.

http://www.warwickhughes.com/hoyt/scorecard.htm

Do you think there's no money to be had for denying global climate change? You think the oil companies aren't standing by to spend huge bucks to get some prominent scientists to say what they want them to say? Who has deeper pockets, the Sierra Club or Shell Oil?

Contrary to what your handlers tell you, the grant money available from oil companies is a very tiny percentage of the money available from organizations looking for political power via AGW theory. You mention the sierra club as if it were a monolithic organization and the only one offering grant money.

The owner of virgin records, for example has offered up 3 billion dollars in grant money for scientists who will look for a solution to "global warming". He is particularly interested in problems created by commercial aircraft and is seeking, via his research money, government mandates for cleaner jet fuels. Oddly enough, he also owns one of the only companies in the world that makes a clean burning jet fuel. One mandated change in jet fuel would make him 10 times the 3 billion dollar investement he put up in "grant" money. This sort of thing is rife within the AGW community.

The oil companies have little need to pull the sort of crap the owner of virgin records is pulling because oil is going to continue to be needed for a very long time. A mandate from the government, for example, for clean buring fuel doesn't hurt the oil companies. Clean burning fuel takes more oil to make so such a mandate boosts their profits so why would they be interested in countering it?

As for the criticisms I found regarding the paper you found in your right-wing web sites, I was pretty sure that you wouldn't actually respond. I can only assume the reason you gave up is because you're out of your depth. That's okay. After that "little experiment" you proposed, it's obvious that you don't know much about the subject. Neither do I, but at least I admitted as much from the very start.

I didn't give up. It is clear that you are out of your depth and unable to actually discuss the issue. At best, you can cut and paste information from other sites that you admittedly don't understand any more than the initial information I provided. So what is the point?

By the way, the experiment is valid. Sorry you don't grasp it.
 
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I'd be curious to read these, if you have links.

Sure, I will get you some links. For obvious reasons, such stories don't make the big news, but I will dig some up for you. In the meantime, here is an interview conducted with Professor Pat Michaels, Dr. Roy Spencer, Dr. Sherwood Idso, Professor Tom Wigley, and Professor Reginald Newell on the topic of funding.

This is not just a group of skeptics. They are well respected. Professor Michaels, for example is one of the most popular speakers in the world on the topic of global warming. Roy Spencer is a principal research scientist for University of Alabama and he has been Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. He also recieved NASA's Medal for Exceptional Scientific Achievement. Dr. Idso is the President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. Professor Newell was a professor of meterology at MIT and Professor Wigley is a senior scientist in the National Center for for Atmospheric Research Climate and Global Dynamics Division, has been named a fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) for his major contributions to climate and carbon-cycle modeling and to climate data analysis.

"THE WEATHER MACHINE" (BBC 1, November 1974): There's the ever-present threat of a big freeze. Will a new ice age claim our lands and bury our northern cities? It's buried Manhattan Island before when great glaciers half a mile thick filled the valley of New York's Hudson River.

INTERVIEWER: You do accept that 10-15 years ago people were talking about global cooling, not warming?

DR STEPHEN SCHNEIDER: Not everybody - I was one who was not sure.

INTERVIEWER: You say you didn't believe in global cooling but in your first book you said, 'I have cited many examples of recent climatic variability and repeated the warnings of several well-known climatologists that a cooling trend has set in, perhaps one akin to the Little Ice Age. Well, that was just fourteen years ago.

DR STEPHEN SCHNEIDER: I said that because at the time it was true. But you've got to be honest, you've got to tell things the way they are. I don't mind people quoting what I said in the 1970s.

INTERVIEWER: Doesn't all of that add up to saying that you're asking governments to spend billions of dollars on a view which is different from one you held a decade ago?

DR STEPHEN SCHNEIDER: I don't see any problem in saying that people learn. I'm not embarrassed about a view I held a decade ago.

PROF. PAT MICHAELS: You should remember, when I was going to graduate school, it was gospel that the ice age was about to start. I had trouble warming up to that one too. This is not the first climatic apocalypse, but it' s certainly the loudest.

There may be many reasons why we might want to believe in a apocalypse but for the scientists involved it's very straightforward.

DR ROY SPENCER: It's easier to get funding if you can show some evidence for impending climate disasters. In the late 1970s it was the coming ice age and now it's the coming global warming. Who knows what it will be ten years from now. Sure, science benefits from scary scenarios.

DR SHERWOOD IDSO: A lot of people are getting very famous and very well funded as a result of promoting the disastrous scenario of greenhouse warming.

PROF. REGINALD NEWELL: My suspicion is that if you have a crisis like this it' s easier to gain funds for the profession as a whole.

PROF. TOMWIGLEY: I don't think funding directly influences the nature of the research or the approach. .

INTERVIEWER: But indirectly?

PROF.TOMWIGLEY. Using my organisation as an example, we have only one permanently-funded university scientist that's me. I have a dozen research workers with Ph.D.s who are working in the climatic research unit and they are all funded on so-called soft money. Their existence requires me, or us jointly, to get external support.

Funding may have encouraged support of the greenhouse theory, but if you oppose the theory, life can get difficult.

PROF. REGINALD NEWELL: I was warned when I wrote my first paper which discussed the difference between the climate models and some figures I was looking at for the tropics that it would be very difficult and my funding would probably be cut. In fact it has been cut.

INTERVIEWER: Did you believe that at the time?

PROF. REGINALD NEWELL: No, I thought that the system was so straightforward and honest - that bringing in a new perspective to the whole thing which I thought I did in 1979 would be considered to be a positive thing: people could hear both sides of the argument and then have a debate.

INTERVIEWER: Perhaps the greenhouse theory has been successful in terms of raising funds : by saying there' s a crisis around the corner, people are talking about putting in more funds.

PROF. REGINALD NEWELL: Perhaps it has worked; perhaps I was wrong but I think it's going to backfire.

DR ROY SPENCER: Richard Lindzen has recently said that this whole area has become a new McCarthyism. If you don't jump on the environmental bandwagon to stop the inevitable warming of the Earth, then you will be ostracised from the scientific community and from everybody else's community , because it's not fashionable to disagree with the environmentalists these days.

PROF. PAT MICHAELS : People who have a point of view which may not be politically acceptable are going to have problems. That's not surprising. I have had experiences with editors of more than one journal who have said that my papers have been rejected because they are held to a higher standard of review than others. I believe this is because what they say is not popular. That's OK: I'm a big boy. I know I would have been more successful if I had said the world is coming to an end, but I can't bring myself to do that.

Of course it's not only been the scientists. The media also benefits from a good disaster story.

'THE BIG HEAT' (Panorama, May 1990): Storms, cyclones, drought, high winds and floods: a foretaste of global warming, a change in global climate caused by man's pollution of the planet.

To say that the climate is OK does not usually make the headlines. And the best prophets of doom are the ones filmed most. (Shot of Stephen Schneider being interviewed in front of the cameras).
 
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