If Gallup is right, Tuesday will be a long night for Democrat party

Little-Acorn

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A pretty good explanation of the odd phenomenon where so many polls assume the same numbers of Dems and Republicans will vote in 2012, as voted in 2008 (far more Dems than Republicans).

And what will happen if they vote, instead, the way they did in 2010 (more Republicans than Dems).

Which do YOU think is more likely?

--------------------------------------------------------

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/332386/parsing-polls-michael-g-franc#

Parsing the Polls
If Gallup is right, Tuesday will be a long night for the Democratic party.

By Michael G. Franc
November 3, 2012 12:00 A.M.

Last week, the Gallup Organization provided more fodder for the debate over whether this year’s polls are skewed due to a systematic over-representation of Democrats in the samples. If Gallup has it right, Governor Romney’s lead may be several percentage points greater than the most recent round of polls suggests.

Gallup reviewed all of its interviews with “likely voters” conducted since October 1. Its conclusion: “The composition of the electorate [old vs. young, male vs. female, upper income vs. lower income etc. -LA] for the 2012 presidential election is looking quite similar to what it was in 2008 as well as 2004.” Indeed, whether the sample is broken out on the basis of race, gender, level of education, or geographic location, the percentage of likely voters in each subset is no different than it was four years earlier.

But Gallup uncovered one very significant shift in this year’s voting electorate. There has been a remarkable movement toward the Republican party. As Gallup reports:

The largest changes in the composition of the electorate compared with the last presidential election concern the partisan affiliation of voters. Currently, 46% of likely voters identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, compared with 54% in 2008. But in 2008, Democrats enjoyed a wide 12-point advantage in party affiliation among national adults, the largest Gallup had seen in at least two decades. More recently, Americans have been about as likely to identify as or lean Republican as to identify as or lean Democratic. Consequently, the electorate has also become less Democratic and more Republican in its political orientation than in 2008. In fact, the party composition of the electorate this year looks more similar to the electorate in 2004 than 2008.

If anything, Gallup understates the case. In 2008, Democrats enjoyed a decisive ten-point advantage in partisan affiliation, 39 percent to 29 percent. When undecided voters were pushed to choose a party, the Democrats’ edge grew by another two points, to 54 percent to 42 percent. Yet in the Gallup polls conducted since October 1, the two parties have pulled even, with Republicans actually ahead by a statistically insignificant percentage point, 36 percent to 35 percent. After being pushed to choose a party, likely voters give the Republicans a further boost, resulting in an overall three-point advantage of 49 percent to 46 percent.

If you are keeping score, in slightly less than four years President Obama has presided over an eleven-point decrease in his party’s standing with the American people, 15 points if you include those voters who “lean” one way or the other.

To be sure, the most recent spate of national polls include more Republicans than did the surveys conducted earlier in October. Nevertheless, they still give more advantage to the Democrats than Gallup’s aggregate data suggest should be the case. ABC/Wall Street Journal’s most recent poll, for example, includes 34 percent Democrats and 30 percent Republicans, the Investors Business Daily poll sets the Democrats’ advantage at seven points (38 percent to 31 percent), and an Associated Press survey comes in two percentage points more Democratic than Republican.

Correcting these polls so that there was a Republican edge in the sample of voters consistent with Gallup’s finding would hand Romney a lead between five to ten points. Imagine the run on smelling salts at Mother Jones and MSNBC if that were to happen?
 
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and so we see the source of America's discontent with Congress. Pelosi so alienated the public she created 2010 and Reid built upon his sins and is wreaking the same havoc on the Senate.

can there be hope for the republic now ? we'll see.
 
A pretty good explanation of the odd phenomenon where so many polls assume the same numbers of Dems and Republicans will vote in 2012, as voted in 2008 (far more Dems than Republicans).

And what will happen if they vote, instead, the way they did in 2010 (more Republicans than Dems).

Which do YOU think is more likely?

--------------------------------------------------------

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/332386/parsing-polls-michael-g-franc#

Parsing the Polls
If Gallup is right, Tuesday will be a long night for the Democratic party.

By Michael G. Franc
November 3, 2012 12:00 A.M.

Last week, the Gallup Organization provided more fodder for the debate over whether this year’s polls are skewed due to a systematic over-representation of Democrats in the samples. If Gallup has it right, Governor Romney’s lead may be several percentage points greater than the most recent round of polls suggests.

Gallup reviewed all of its interviews with “likely voters” conducted since October 1. Its conclusion: “The composition of the electorate [old vs. young, male vs. female, upper income vs. lower income etc. -LA] for the 2012 presidential election is looking quite similar to what it was in 2008 as well as 2004.” Indeed, whether the sample is broken out on the basis of race, gender, level of education, or geographic location, the percentage of likely voters in each subset is no different than it was four years earlier.

But Gallup uncovered one very significant shift in this year’s voting electorate. There has been a remarkable movement toward the Republican party. As Gallup reports:

The largest changes in the composition of the electorate compared with the last presidential election concern the partisan affiliation of voters. Currently, 46% of likely voters identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, compared with 54% in 2008. But in 2008, Democrats enjoyed a wide 12-point advantage in party affiliation among national adults, the largest Gallup had seen in at least two decades. More recently, Americans have been about as likely to identify as or lean Republican as to identify as or lean Democratic. Consequently, the electorate has also become less Democratic and more Republican in its political orientation than in 2008. In fact, the party composition of the electorate this year looks more similar to the electorate in 2004 than 2008.

If anything, Gallup understates the case. In 2008, Democrats enjoyed a decisive ten-point advantage in partisan affiliation, 39 percent to 29 percent. When undecided voters were pushed to choose a party, the Democrats’ edge grew by another two points, to 54 percent to 42 percent. Yet in the Gallup polls conducted since October 1, the two parties have pulled even, with Republicans actually ahead by a statistically insignificant percentage point, 36 percent to 35 percent. After being pushed to choose a party, likely voters give the Republicans a further boost, resulting in an overall three-point advantage of 49 percent to 46 percent.

If you are keeping score, in slightly less than four years President Obama has presided over an eleven-point decrease in his party’s standing with the American people, 15 points if you include those voters who “lean” one way or the other.

To be sure, the most recent spate of national polls include more Republicans than did the surveys conducted earlier in October. Nevertheless, they still give more advantage to the Democrats than Gallup’s aggregate data suggest should be the case. ABC/Wall Street Journal’s most recent poll, for example, includes 34 percent Democrats and 30 percent Republicans, the Investors Business Daily poll sets the Democrats’ advantage at seven points (38 percent to 31 percent), and an Associated Press survey comes in two percentage points more Democratic than Republican.

Correcting these polls so that there was a Republican edge in the sample of voters consistent with Gallup’s finding would hand Romney a lead between five to ten points. Imagine the run on smelling salts at Mother Jones and MSNBC if that were to happen?


Your OP doesn't make much sense!
Let's see. . .if it is a "long night for the Democratic party," why wouldn't it be a "long night for the Republican party?" Seems to me that both Democrats and Republicans will know just about the same time what's happening. . .and it might take days!
 
Your OP doesn't make much sense!
Let's see. . .if it is a "long night for the Democratic party," why wouldn't it be a "long night for the Republican party?" Seems to me that both Democrats and Republicans will know just about the same time what's happening. . .and it might take days!

time flys when you're having fun.
 
time flys when you're having fun.

Yep. . .and unless you know something NO ONE ELSE knows. . .there is at least as much chance for Democrats to have fun than for Republicans. . .

In fact, PROBABILIES are WAY OUT in favor of Obama!

Updated 7:00 PM ET on Nov. 4​

President
Nov. 6 Forecast
President
Now-cast
Senate
Nov. 6 Forecast
Mitt Romney​
Barack Obama​

231.6
-9.8 since Oct. 28
306.4
+9.8 since Oct. 28
Electoral
vote


270 to win


0

14.5%
-10.9 since Oct. 28
85.5%
+10.9 since Oct. 28
Chance of
Winning


50%
And still I don't say that I have no doubt that Obama will win! I don't think anyone knows!
I just think it's funny that you guys should be so sure!
 
time flys when you're having fun.

Yep. . .and unless you know something NO ONE ELSE knows. . .there is at least as much chance for Democrats to have fun than for Republicans. . .

In fact, PROBABILIES are WAY OUT in favor of Obama!

Updated 7:00 PM ET on Nov. 4​

President
Nov. 6 Forecast
President
Now-cast
Senate
Nov. 6 Forecast
Mitt Romney​
Barack Obama​

231.6
-9.8 since Oct. 28
306.4
+9.8 since Oct. 28
Electoral
vote


270 to win


0

14.5%
-10.9 since Oct. 28
85.5%
+10.9 since Oct. 28
Chance of
Winning

And still I don't say that I have no doubt that Obama will win! I don't think anyone knows!
I just think it's funny that you guys should be so sure!
 
time flys when you're having fun.

Yep. . .and unless you know something NO ONE ELSE knows. . .there is at least as much chance for Democrats to have fun than for Republicans. . .

In fact, PROBABILIES are WAY OUT in favor of Obama!

Updated 7:00 PM ET on 11/4​
Mitt Romney​
Barack Obama​
231.6
-9.8 since Oct. 28
306.4
+9.8 since Oct. 28
Electoral
vote
270 to win


0
14.5%
-10.9 since Oct. 28
85.5%
+10.9 since Oct. 28
Chance of
Winning
And still I don't say that I have no doubt that Obama will win! I don't think anyone knows!
I just think it's funny that you guys should be so sure!
 
The biggest fright the democrats got recently--was on old woman who, when asked who she thought would win, opined--
"I'll just leave it in God's hands."
 
I never believed in reading tea leaves or tarot cards, crystal balls or polls.
 
Gallup poll? You mean the one that was rated near the bottom for accuracy in the 2008 election and the one that only polls 10 percent of cell phone users? That one? :rolleyes:

If you're serious about polls try averaging them and removing the outliers. And if you don't get a clear picture from that consult with Nate Silver's blog. The man is a f'ing genius and was 99.99 percent accurate in the last election.

BTW Nate has Obama winning the electoral college vote by a significant amount. So much for Gallup.
 
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