I'm sure that many here are familiar with the CBO and how it operates. For those who aren't, it might help if we provide a few general insights into its operation. The CBO for all intents and purposes consists of a bunch of bean-counting accountants. The government bigwigs submit requests to the CBO, usually related to the effects of a policy/law on various economic factors. As an example, the Obamacare law has been "assessed" several times by the CBO. The requests included questions such as, "How much will it cost". Sounds simple, doesn't it? When such questions are asked, the requestor may, and often does include a set of assumptions that the CBO must use in their assessment. The assumptions used in CBO assessments are seldom discussed in the media. When they are mentioned, the reporters are often not qualified to interpret the effect that the assumptions had on the conclusion drawn by the CBO. Examples of these assumptions might be, (1) job growth will be +3.5 million jobs per-year for the next 10 years, (2) total tax receipts will increase +$45 billion dollars per-year during years 1-5, and +$57 billion dollars per-year during years 6-10, (3) 4 million fewer people will incur serious heart attacks each year because of healthier-living programs, (4) food prices will remain constant throughout the entire 10-year period, etc. etc. etc.
Conclusion: Unless all of the assumptions are fully explained, take the conclusions of most CBO studies with a grain of salt!
