The infomercial bounce

[Popeye]

Of the 8 daily tracking polls listed at RCP 5 showed gains for Obama today, 1 for McCain and 2 were unchanged from yesterday...now Thursday night's interviews were the first conducted entirely after Obama's Wednesday 30 minute infomercial...are the gains coincidental, or are we seeing an infomercial bounce?

 

[Frolicking Dinosaurs]

The individual state numbers are more interesting - McCain lost a full point overnight in GA, and nearly 2 in OH. PA is only .4% from going back to solidly Obama and FL is 1.5% from becoming a weak Obama state. I'd have to say we are seeing a serious bounce in the battleground states and not much movement in the McCain states.

 

[XCALIDEM]

Zogby will have Mccain up by 1 tomorrow.... Talk about a bounce....

You guys need to ask yourself why Obama can't close the sale??? He couldn't do it against Hillary and he can't do it against McCain.... He outspends him 4 to 1 in every state in commercials and he spent all that money in that infomercial, yet he hasn't run away with the race yet.....WHY?


CHECK THIS OUT:

ZOGBY SATURDAY: Republican John McCain has pulled back within the margin of error... McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all

 

[rushhannity]

Keep the fight goin McCain/ Palin Rushhannity.

 

[Talk2TheHead]

Obama is already extending his lead again after a little bit of tightning.
McCain has no chance. Thank god Ms Palin can go back to Alaska. No bad disney movie this time folks!

 

[Popeye]

Zogby will have Mccain up by 1 tomorrow.... Talk about a bounce....

You guys need to ask yourself why Obama can't close the sale??? He couldn't do it against Hillary and he can't do it against McCain.... He outspends him 4 to 1 in every state in commercials and he spent all that money in that infomercial, yet he hasn't run away with the race yet.....WHY?


CHECK THIS OUT:

Let me explain something to you...Zogby is a 3 day rolling average tracking poll. Notice how in your quote it says...McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling..that means McCain had one good day of polling not that he's taken the lead. In fact, this morning's Zogby Poll still shows Obama up by 5%, down from 7%.

There is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of sampling in their tracking polls.. a one day sample is extremely volatile, and has a very high margin for error. Obama actually had a good day yesterday in the Rasmussen tracker which shows him this morning gaining 1 point.

 

[Popeye]

More evidence of an infomercial bounce from today's Gallup Poll


RV: Obama-52% McCain-41%

LV Traditional: Obama 52% McCain-42%

LV Expanded: Obama 52% McCain-42%

The average Obama lead over McCain among traditional likely voters since Oct. 6 has been five points,but that lead has expanded over the last several day's reports, and Obama's current 52-42% lead among this group is the largest to date.

 

[XCALIDEM]

More evidence of an infomercial bounce from today's Gallup Poll


RV: Obama-52% McCain-41%

LV Traditional: Obama 52% McCain-42%

LV Expanded: Obama 52% McCain-42%

it never surprises me to see you always cherry picking the ones with the higher numbers.....

 

[Popeye]

it never surprises me to see you always cherry picking the ones with the higher numbers.....

And you always look at the poll showing McCain the closest...problem is, none of them show McCain leading... RCP currently has the average at +6.3% for Obama and every tracking poll but one has Obama at or above 50%.

Many think we are heading for a landslide, even George Will this morning predicted 378 electoral votes for Obama.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/george/2008/11/predictions-ele.html

 

[Sihouette]

You guys need to ask yourself why Obama can't close the sale??? He couldn't do it against Hillary and he can't do it against McCain.... He outspends him 4 to 1 in every state in commercials and he spent all that money in that infomercial, yet he hasn't run away with the race yet.....WHY?~calidem

Hillary was a clear choice for a landslide. On that we can agree. Many people will vote change this year, not because Obama coined the buzzword, but because we actually, authentically want a change from the last 8 years. I wanted a change from it the minute I read Cheney and Bush's bio, before they stole the Whitehouse from Al Gore via a packed Supreme Court. 8 years later that want has turned into a burning crusade, a desire beyond words for change.

McCain was up against it no matter who ran against him this time. Just less so with Obama than Hillary. Probably because he is her junior in experience and because he tans easier..

 

[Pandora]

Popeye, I got this email from moveon, what do you make of it? They said polls are tightening.

Dear MoveOn member,

Here's some ominous news: In the last few days, Obama's lead in the national tracking polls has dropped by three points. If this trend continues, we could be looking at four years of President McCain and Vice President Palin.

Now, don't panic yet. Obama's still ahead. But if you thought it didn't matter whether you volunteered this weekend, think again. The election is likely to be very, very close and if we're not all out there talking to voters over the final four days, we could be in big trouble.

The Obama campaign office in Eugene needs 400 MoveOn volunteers to help get out the vote and make sure Obama carries Oregon. Can we count on you?

http://pol.moveon.org/obama/volunteer/?office_id=11821&id=14891-9880755-5naJSHx&t=2

It's go time. Barack's done his job. Now it's up to all of us to bring home a victory.
Thanks!

–Adam, Daniel, Peter, Karin and the rest of the team

 

[Popeye]

Popeye, I got this email from moveon, what do you make of it? They said polls are tightening.

Dear MoveOn member,

Here's some ominous news: In the last few days, Obama's lead in the national tracking polls has dropped by three points. If this trend continues, we could be looking at four years of President McCain and Vice President Palin.

Now, don't panic yet. Obama's still ahead. But if you thought it didn't matter whether you volunteered this weekend, think again. The election is likely to be very, very close and if we're not all out there talking to voters over the final four days, we could be in big trouble.

The Obama campaign office in Eugene needs 400 MoveOn volunteers to help get out the vote and make sure Obama carries Oregon. Can we count on you?

http://pol.moveon.org/obama/volunteer/?office_id=11821&id=14891-9880755-5naJSHx&t=2

It's go time. Barack's done his job. Now it's up to all of us to bring home a victory.
Thanks!

–Adam, Daniel, Peter, Karin and the rest of the team

Though there have been some minor fluctuations among individual polls, Obama's lead overall in the national polls has remained rather stable. Moveon not only needs to boost the get out the vote effort but is rightfully fighting against complacency and in doing so are overstating their case somewhat.

 

[Pandora]

Though there have been some minor fluctuations among individual polls, Obama's lead overall in the national polls has remained rather stable. Moveon not only needs to boost the get out the vote effort but is rightfully fighting against complacency and in doing so are overstating their case somewhat.

I have seen on the news they say a few of the polls have them by 1 pt and in one poll McCain is ahead but then I read the forum and its 8-10 pts differnt. I just stopped keeping track because no one agrees, Ill wait for tuesday

I wondered about this moveon email, you are probalby right, they just want to get the vote out.

 

[Popeye]

I have seen on the news they say a few of the polls have them by 1 pt and in one poll McCain is ahead but then I read the forum and its 8-10 pts differnt. I just stopped keeping track because no one agrees, Ill wait for tuesday

I wondered about this moveon email, you are probalby right, they just want to get the vote out.

Not sure what you are watching because ALL the national polls have Obama leading..anywhere from 2-13% with an average of 6.3%.

RCP Average 10/27 - 11/01 -- -- 50.5 44.2 Obama +6.3
CNN/Opinion Research 10/30 - 11/01 714 LV 3.5 53 46 Obama +7
Rasmussen Reports 10/30 - 11/01 3000 LV 2.0 51 46 Obama +5
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/30 - 11/01 2503 LV 2.0 51 43 Obama +8
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/30 - 11/01 2475 LV 2.0 52 43 Obama +9
Diageo/Hotline 10/30 - 11/01 882 LV 3.6 50 45 Obama +5
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/30 - 11/01 1201 LV 2.9 50 44 Obama +6
IBD/TIPP 10/29 - 11/01 844 LV 3.4 47 45 Obama +2
CBS News 10/28 - 10/31 747 LV -- 54 41 Obama +13
ABC News/Wash Post 10/28 - 10/31 1900 LV 2.5 53 44 Obama +9
GWU/Battleground 10/27 - 10/30 800 LV 3.5 49 45 Obama +4
Marist 10/29 - 10/29 543 LV 4.5 50 43 Obama +7
FOX News 10/28 - 10/29 924 LV 3.0 47 44 Obama +3

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

 

[Frolicking Dinosaurs]

The lead is slipping a bit in the states where McCain has been saturating them with smears. I may drive over to NC and help get out the vote on Tuesday since it is in play and the chances of TN going for Obama aren't good. We do need to continue to get out the vote for Obama to be absolutely positive that we don't get four more years of failure.