Thanks for the link, Framed. I still disagree because I read the site you listed and accompanying study and as mentioned above. It is only a 3 year study.
I found more information on the study you pointed out. You can find it here.
http://www.cor.state.pa.us/stats/lib/stats/Sex_Offender_Treatment.pdf
This is from the Pennsylvania Dept. of Corrections. It mentions the different results between this 3 year study and a 7 year study. The recidivism rate triples. It mentions that sex offenders are still less likely to reoffend within 7 years. But, it expresses the need for a longer study time. The second paragraph is of particular interest. In fact, it mentions that one study shows unmarried convicted child-molestors who molest boys actually reoffend at a 77% rate.
We can not base our opinion on a 3 or 7 year study, we need a lifelong study to know the true rate of reoccurence. But, if you are going to go only by statistics then, common sense would dictate that if it triples every 4 years then, within 15 years of release, the recidivism rate would be more than 100%. I know that is impossible but, I am just making a point that we can not judge an entire lifetime by the measure of a few years.
Here is a study form Arizona Dept. of Correcitons. The stats are pretty similar within those first few years but, they have studied it further. It is disturbing to say the least.
"Among the 1,649 sex offenders released from the Arizona prison system to the supervision of state parole officers, 70%
eventually returned to prison with a new felony conviction for a sex crime, including 1.5% who committed a new sex crime
while under state supervision."
You can find the article here
http://www.azcorrections.gov/Recidivism.htm
Iowa participated in this study.
http://www.state.ia.us/government/dhr/cjjp/images/pdf/01_pub/SexOffenderReport.pdf
Note that they say that just within the sampling of study participants, 24.9% ALREADY had previous sex convictions and were on the sex offender registry and 28.9% that were not on the registry. Of interest is the mention that recidivism rates are less for those on the registry.
I could go on and on with this but, I think it is clear that sex offenders certainly do have a very high recidivism rate when studied for more than 3 years.
I also think that some of these studies show that the sex registry is a deterent; at least it is lowering recidivism by registered sex offenders.
Please note that I didn't pick and choose any studues. I just did a quick search and took the first three I found. I have also checked on my state in the past and the experiences I had at Rape Relief and Crime victims Center showed me that every sex offender I have met with the exception of one has returned to prison for another sex crime.
I do consider myself an expert in this subject because of my work experience and I also am very aware of statistics as is required for social work and psychology studies. I am not saying to take my word for it, but, I am suggesting to look in many places before forming an opinion and make sure that you are taking the context of the statistics into account.